Warriors vs Rockets Prediction, Picks and Odds for NBA Playoffs Game 5: Bet Sengun Over 10.5 Rebounds

The Golden State Warriors lead 3-1 heading into Game 5 in Houston, and the Rockets are -4 favorites with a total set at 204. With Golden State’s scoring inconsistencies and Houston’s elite rebounding, this one sets up for another gritty playoff grind. Here are our best NBA picks tonight, including a dominant rebounding prop and a game total that continues to cash.

Warriors vs Rockets NBA Playoffs Prediction

This will be close for three quarters, but expect Houston to take control late. Golden State’s offense has looked stagnant outside of Steph Curry, and the Rockets’ edge on the boards will show up again. Alperen Sengun dominates down low and the Rockets sneak out with a 105–97 win to extend the series. If you’re watching the NBA odds tonight, there’s more value on totals and props than the spread.

Warriors vs Rockets Best Player Props Today

• Alperen Sengun Over 10.5 Rebounds (-136)

Sengun is averaging 10.4 boards and leads a Houston team ranked #1 in total rebounds per game. Golden State is bottom-10 in defensive rebounding, and Sengun has already grabbed 11+ in two of four games in this series. The pace is slow, resulting in more half-court sets and contested shots. This might be the safest play in all of NBA prop bets today.

Alperen Sengun left it all on the court with a double-double in San Francisco

📊 31 PTS | 10 REB | 5 AST | 2 STL@MemorialHermann | #Liftoff pic.twitter.com/lOX6kKE1h2

— Houston Rockets (@HoustonRockets) April 29, 2025

• Amen Thompson Under 3.5 Assists (-104)

Amen Thompson has been filling up the glass but not the box score in terms of assists. He’s averaging 3.84 on the season, but playoff pressure has slowed his playmaking, going under this line in four of his last six. With Fred VanVleet running point more often, his touches as a distributor drop. If you’re hunting value in NBA player prop picks today, this is a sneaky good one.

• Draymond Green Under 4.5 Assists (-162)

Draymond Green’s playmaking has dipped as Curry and Jimmy Butler dominate the ball. He’s recorded five or fewer assists in five of his last six games, and Houston’s defense ranks top-5 in limiting opponent assists per game. With fewer easy buckets and Green seeing more time in the dunker spot, this Under looks sharp. There’s a reason it’s trending in sharp NBA news groups heading into Game 5.

Bet These Warriors vs Rockets Player Props Here

Warriors vs Rockets Moneyline Pick

The Rockets are 31-10 at home and 1st in the league in rebound margin. Their depth is wearing down a top-heavy Warriors squad, and their defense continues to outwork Golden State’s ball movement. Unless Curry drops 40, Houston will grind out another win and extend this series. It’s not flashy, but the Rockets ML still holds value when building futures or tracking NBA finals odds

Bet on Rockets -175

Warriors vs Rockets Spread Pick

Houston has covered two of the last three and is dominating the paint with Sengun, Jabari Smith and Amen Thompson all rebounding at elite levels. Golden State has only one consistent scorer and ranks 25th in shooting percentage. The Rockets have the size, energy, and home-court edge to cover again. For tonight’s most reliable NBA picks tonight, this spread deserves a spot in every ticket.

Bet on Rockets -4

Warriors vs Rockets Over/Under Pick

Neither team has reached 110 points in the last three games. Houston’s offensive rebounding extends possessions but doesn’t translate into fast pace, and Golden State ranks 26th in points in the paint. With both defenses ranking top-7 and the pressure rising, this total still feels too high. The Under has hit in 4 of their last 6 meetings — don’t overthink it.

Bet on Under 204

Warriors vs Rockets How to Watch

• Game: Golden State Warriors (48-34) vs Houston Rockets (52-30)
• Time/Date: 7:30 p.m. ET | Wednesday, April 30
• Location: Toyota Center, Houston, TX
• Warriors vs Rockets Live Stream: NBA League Pass

Check here for Warriors vs Rockets stats

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More Warriors vs Rockets NBA Picks and Best Bets Today

• Warriors vs Rockets NBA Playoffs Parlay Picks for Wednesday, April 30: Bet on Curry Over 26.5 Points

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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