The first-seeded Philadelphia 76ers (49-23) look to quickly establish dominance over the eighth-seeded Washington Wizards (35-39) as 7½-point betting favorites. Philadelphia, led by MVP candidate Joel Embiid, should be able to lord over the smaller Wizards Sunday.
Philadelphia swept the season series against Washington (3-0), and covered twice. The Wizards’ intense offense can be a handful to deal with although winning shouldn’t be a problem. The Sixers are -320 to win with the comeback on Washington at +260.
Team Previews
Wizards: Throw ‘em Up
Eight-seeds upsetting one-seeds come once in a blue moon. Since the NBA expanded its first-round series to seven games, only three eight-seeds have beaten one-seeds: 2007 “We Believe” Warriors, the 2011 Memphis Grizzlies, and the 2012 Philadelphia 76ers.
Of those teams, the Wizards can look to emulate the Warriors, who also played a fast-paced, small-ball style that sped past the Mavericks. The Wizards’ breakneck pace is responsible for why they’ve scored the third-most points but also allowed the most.
Russell Westbrook only plays on fast forward and together with Bradley Beal, form one of the most potent guard duos in the league. However, trying to shoot their way to victory is a risky proposition with their unreliable shooting. They’ve made the third-fewest threes and are only 20th in effective field goal percent (eFG%). That’s a lot of bricks.
76ers: Doing It Big
The Philadelphia 76ers have the most pressure heading into these playoffs. We’re heading into year four of the Embiid-Ben Simmons era and the Sixers are in the best position to at least make the Eastern Conference Finals. Anything short of that would be considered a bust.
In their matchup against the Wizards, Philadelphia gets a team they should be able to beat within five games. The Sixers beat the Wizards without much trouble. They shot over 54% from the field and averaged 127 points, the most they’ve averaged against any team (tied with Utah).
The Sixers also missed Embiid and Simmons for some of the games and they chugged along just fine. The key for them would be to contain Washington to a half-court style and force them to make plays in a slower tempo. That shouldn’t be a problem for the NBA’s second-best defense.
Pick: One Way Traffic
Westbrook is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but he’s only won one playoff series with a 9-19 record since Kevin Durant split for a reason: he can’t adjust or shoot. Westbrook plays one style of basketball: attack the basket.
Lesser teams than the Philadelphia 76ers have neutralized Westbrook-led teams. Philadelphia will take away the open space and Westbrook’s shooters, namely Beal. The more Westbrook has to try and beat the Sixers, the better it is for Philly.
Ready for some Joel Embiid and Russell Westbrook fun
— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) May 21, 2021
Beal should still be able to score close to a 30-point clip, but the Sixers are also the second-best team at forcing turnovers and are a top-10 rebounding team. Unless the Wizards go on a hot shooting tear, which is unlikely, the Sixers will whittle them down and beat them.
Laying chalk on the spread shouldn’t be a problem on the NBA betting lines. If you’re feeling nervous, find an alternate spread to lower the points a bit.
Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -7½ (-110) or Philadelphia 76ers -320
Bonus Pick: Big Man
Embiid will feast on the minuscule Wizards. He averaged 30 points, 9.7 boards, and 3.3 assists while shooting 604/833/964 with a 131 offensive rating in just 30 minutes of play. Whew.
Those are video game numbers, but they still did not total over 47 on average. That is a bit too much and considering the slower pace and potential blowout here, bet Embiid to not hit these inflated totals.
Pick: Joel Embiid (PHI) Total Points+Rebounds+Assists – Under 47½ (-115)
