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We’re Not Shai About Betting Thunder vs Mavericks in Game 5

The Oklahoma City Thunder showed why they’re the top seed in the Western Conference when beating the Dallas Mavericks in Game 4.


We’re Not Shai About Betting Thunder vs Mavericks in Game 5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder | Joshua Gateley/Getty Images/AFP

They were behind for most of the game, but a spirited comeback now has them in the driver’s seat ahead of Game 5.

NBA odds have the Thunder at -4½ to take control of the series.


Mavericks vs Thunder Game Information


Mavericks vs Thunder Odds and Spreads

Mavericks vs Thunder Head-to-Head

  • The Mavericks are 30-16 ATS on the road.
  • The Mavericks are 6-4 ATS in playoff games.
  • The Thunder are 25-14 ATS as the home favorite.
  • The Thunder are 37-25 ATS after a win.
  • The under is 6-2 in Thunder’s playoff games.


Fatigued Mavericks Under the Pump

The Mavericks had Game 4 in safe keeping, until they didn’t.

Poor shooting down the stretch from their best players, including Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, was enough to sink the ship.

They now need to bounce back and win on the road, or at least cover the +4½ spread to keep bettors happy. However, they look fatigued compared to the young legs of the Thunder.

Doncic is clearly playing injured, and although he’s doing enough to get a pass mark, he’s not at his brilliant best.

It seems as though he’s on the floor or contesting a non-foul call on every play. That’s not the leadership the Mavericks need, and beating the Thunder at Paycom Center makes life harder.

They have scored fewer than 100 points in two of the four games, which highlights their struggles. Coming off a 96-point performance shouldn’t give bettors much confidence, so we would want more than a +4½ line to side with the Mavericks.

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Gilgeous-Alexander is the Difference

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished second in the MVP voting ahead of Doncic, and it’s showing up in this series.

The Thunder youngster has been incredible, and he took over the game late in Game 4, scoring some unbelievable two-point jump shots.

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He finished with 34 points, and although it was a fine team effort, they wouldn’t be where they are without him.

It gives us confidence to back the Thunder knowing he’ll be consistently scoring. His average throughout this series has been terrific, and he’s not under an injury cloud like Doncic.

They got good production from Chet Holmgren, who made a key 3-point bucket late in the fourth before knocking down two free throws.

“There’s nothing comfortable about playoff games,

Thunder coach Mark Daigneault said. “I thought our ability just to endure the early punches, and just not able to get back in the game for a long time, our ability to endure that was big time. In the fourth, the offense turned for us.”

Having wrestled back home court advantage, momentum is with the younger and fitter team. They should fancy their chances of winning Game 5, and that confidence is echoed in NBA betting markets.

Although the last two games were decided by four points, we thought the Thunder would be around -6½, so it’s a value line.

Thunder to Put the Hammer Down

It took a mammoth fourth quarter to stave off elimination for the Thunder, and now they should run away with the series.

Having home-court advantage for Game 5 is huge, and they could score a comfortable win against a tired Mavericks outfit.

We haven’t seen enough from Doncic and in particular Irving in the scoring department, so we’re happy to back the Thunder -4½.

There is also value betting on Gilgeous-Alexander to have another big scoring game.

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Questions of the Day

Who is the favorite in Game 5 of the Mavericks-Thunder series?

Following a Game 4 win in Dallas, the Oklahoma City Thunder are favored by 4½ points in Game 5 at home.

Who has been the best player in the Mavericks-Thunder series?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the standout player, scoring at will throughout the series.


The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.

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