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Greatest Super Bowl Upsets and the Betting Shocks They Caused
- The only Super Bowl win by the New York Jets also leads the list of greatest Super Bowl upsets.
- Tom Brady and the New England Patriots pulled off a huge Super Bowl upset? Yes, it actually happened.
- The Green Bay Packers are among the teams to win as double-digit Super Bowl favorites more than once.
Eleven of the first 11 Super Bowl champions headed into the game as the betting favorite. However, underdogs have recently found ways to win the NFL title. Five of the last nine NFL championships have been won by teams that headed into the Super Bowl as the underdogs.
There have been five Super Bowls in which the winning team was a double-digit underdog, and those games lead our look at the greatest Super Bowl upsets. It all began in Super Bowl III, with Broadway Joe Namath and the New York Jets topping the Baltimore Colts in one of the most talked-about professional football games ever.
It is not unusual for the reigning Super Bowl champion to lead the way in the odds to win the Super Bowl, and that was the case heading into the 2024 season with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Let’s look at the Super Bowls won by teams as double-digit underdogs and produced some of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history.
Top 5 Most Shocking Super Bowl Upsets in History
1. Super Bowl III: New York Jets 16, Baltimore Colts 7
This is the game credited for the NFL and the AFL merging. The NFL’s Green Bay Packers easily handled the AFL-champion Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders in the first two Super Bowls.
The New York Jets, featuring a charismatic quarterback and an underrated defense, were listed as 18-point underdogs against the Colts but came away with a 16-7 victory in the greatest Super Bowl upset.
The game was also the first Super Bowl to be played under the total, set at 40.
2. Super Bowl XXXVI: New England Patriots 20, Los Angeles Rams 17
It is hard to remember Tom Brady, Bill Belichick, and the New England Patriots as playoff underdogs. It didn’t happen often, but the dynasty began with the Patriots topping the St. Louis Rams and the high-flying “Greatest Show on Turf” offense as a 14-point underdog.
Adam Vinatieri’s reputation as one of the best clutch kickers in NFL history began when he booted the game-winning 48-yard field goal to give the Patriots the first of their six Super Bowl titles. It started with a memorable NFL upset.
3. Super Bowl IV: Kansas City Chiefs 23, Minnesota Vikings 7
The AFL champion was sold short for the second year, and the Chiefs continued to make head coach Hank Stram happy by matriculating the ball down the field to win the title as a 12-point underdog against the Minnesota Vikings.
This was a very talented Kansas City team, with Len Dawson, Otis Taylor, Willie Lanier, Bobby Bell, and Buck Buchanan among the stars.
The Super Bowl was the most challenging of Kansas City’s three games in the 1969 NFL playoffs.
4. Super Bowl XLII: New York Giants 17, New England Patriots
The Patriots were 60 minutes away from a perfect season, and only the New York Giants stood in the way. New England was trying to win its fourth Super Bowl title in seven years and was favored by 12 points.
The Patriots outscored their first two playoff opponents 52-32. New England scored at least 30 points in 12 of 16 games during the regular season and 38 against the Giants in the regular-season finale. However, New England scored a season-low 14 points in the Super Bowl loss.
5. Super Bowl XXXII: Denver Broncos 31, Green Bay Packers 24
The Packers were attempting to join the Pittsburgh Steelers as the only teams to win back-to-back Super Bowls more than once. However, John Elway, Terrell Davis, and the Denver Broncos came away with the win as an 11-point underdog.
It was Denver’s first Super Bowl appearance in eight years and the team’s first title. The Broncos would win the Super Bowl the following year. Elway is among the former No. 1 picks to win a Super Bowl.
How Many Double-Digit Super Bowl Favorites Covered?
Not all the teams favored by at least 10 points in the Super Bowl suffered a bitter defeat.
The Green Bay Packers were favored by 14 points in Super Bowl I and 13.5 points in Super Bowl II. The Packers won outright and covered in both games following the 1967 and 1968 seasons. Neither of those games featured the craziest Super Bowl comeback ever.
There was a potential for a bad beat in Super Bowl XIV when the Pittsburgh Steelers topped the Los Angeles Rams 31-19 as 10.5-point favorites.
The 1985 Chicago Bears are considered one of the best teams in NFL history, thanks to a dominating defense. The Bears had no trouble covering as 10-point favorites, winning 46-10 over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XX.
The San Francisco 49ers crushed Denver 55-10 as a 12-point favorite in Super Bowl XXIV, the worst Super Bowl blowout, and the San Diego Chargers 49-26 when favored by 18.5 points in Super Bowl XXIX.
The Dallas Cowboys won Super Bowls XXVII and XXX as double-digit favorites, although they failed to cover in the latter of those games.
The Green Bay Packers, as 14-point favorites, won Super Bowl XXXI versus New England.
How Many Super Bowls Went Off As Pick’Ems?
Not every Super Bowl had a betting favorite at the time of the opening kickoff.
Super Bowl XLIX, played after the 2014 season, featured a pick-em matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots. Seattle had a chance to win the game, but rather than hand the ball off to bruising running back Marshawn Lynch, a pass play was called, and Russell Wilson’s pass was intercepted in one of the wildest endings to a Super Bowl, as New England won 29-24.
Super Bowl VII, won by the Miami Dolphins, Super Bowl XVI, won by the San Francisco 49ers, and Super Bowl LIV, won by the Kansas City Chiefs, all had the winning team favored by just one point.
Not all the betting on the Super Bowl has to go with football. There are bets on Super Bowl commercials and the Super Bowl halftime show.
