First NFL Coach Fired Odds

· Aug 14 - 6 minutes read

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Doug Pederson emerges as a surprising candidate for early firing, with the Jaguars’ tough schedule and Trevor Lawrence’s extension adding to the stakes.
NFC East coaches face intense scrutiny, as high expectations and volatile team performances put multiple head coaches at risk of mid-season termination.

The NFL coaching carousel is one of the most intriguing aspects of the league, and every year, fans and analysts alike speculate on which head coach will be the first to pack their bags. It’s a high-stakes game, where the pressure to perform is immense and the margin for error is razor-thin. As we look ahead to the 2024 season, several coaches find themselves on the proverbial hot seat, and I’ve got my eye on a few who might be the first to get the boot. Click here for the latest odds on which NFL coach will be fired first.

Head coach Mike McCarthy of the Dallas Cowboys has been on the hot seat since he took the job. Will 2024 be the year Jerry Jones fires his head coach and hires the next ex Cowboys coach? Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images/AFP

A Closer Look At The First NFL Coach Fired Odds

Dennis Allen: The Front Runner

At the top of the list is Dennis Allen, with odds of +300 to be the first coach fired. Allen’s tenure with the New Orleans Saints has been rocky, to say the least. The team has struggled to find its footing post-Drew Brees, and Allen’s leadership has been called into question more than once. The Saints’ inability to secure a playoff spot last season has only intensified the scrutiny. If the team doesn’t show significant improvement early in the season, Allen could very well be the first casualty of 2024.

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— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 14, 2024

Mike McCarthy: A Familiar Face on the Hot Seat

Next up is Mike McCarthy, with odds of +600. McCarthy’s time with the Dallas Cowboys has been a rollercoaster, filled with high expectations and disappointing playoff exits. Owner Jerry Jones is known for his impatience, and another lackluster season could spell the end for McCarthy. Jerry wants another Super Bowl before he cashes in his chips and Bill Belichick is unemployed. Despite leading the Cowboys to three consecutive 12-5 seasons, their playoff performances have left much to be desired. If the Cowboys stumble out of the gate, McCarthy’s days in Dallas could be numbered.

Robert Saleh and Matt Eberflus: Under the Microscope

Robert Saleh and Matt Eberflus both sit at +700 odds, and for good reason. Saleh’s New York Jets have shown flashes of potential, but consistency has been elusive. With a roster boasting young talent and a passionate fan base hungry for success, Saleh needs to deliver results quickly. Meanwhile, Eberflus, who helms the Chicago Bears, faces a similar situation. The Bears have been mired in mediocrity, and Eberflus’s ability to turn things around will be closely monitored. Both coaches are under immense pressure to prove they’re the right fit for their respective franchises.

Nick Sirianni and Todd Bowles: The Dark Horses

Nick Sirianni and Todd Bowles, both with +800 odds, are somewhat surprising names on this list. Sirianni’s Philadelphia Eagles have been competitive, but the NFC East is a tough division, and any slip-ups could put his job in jeopardy. Bowles, on the other hand, has the task of leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the post-Brady era. The expectations remain high, and Bowles will need to show that he can keep the team competitive without the legendary quarterback.

Brian Daboll: A Rising Star with Pressure

Brian Daboll, at +900 odds, is an interesting case. Daboll’s first season with the New York Giants was a breath of fresh air, as he injected life into a stagnant franchise. However, the NFL is a “what have you done for me lately” league, and Daboll will need to build on last year’s success to keep the critics at bay. The Giants have made strides, but the pressure to continue that upward trajectory is immense.

Long Shots and Unexpected Twists

Beyond the usual suspects, there are a few long shots worth mentioning. Antonio Pierce and Kevin Stefanski, both at +1200 odds, have shown promise but face unique challenges. Pierce, now the full-time head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders, must navigate a team in transition, while Stefanski needs to prove that the Cleveland Browns can be consistent contenders. Sean McDermott (+1400) and Doug Pederson (+1600) also face pressure to maintain their teams’ competitive edge, though they seem less likely to be the first to go.

The Wild Cards: Established Names with Uncertain Futures

Sean Payton, Kevin O’Connell, Jonathan Gannon, and Zac Taylor, all with +2000 odds, represent the wild cards in this scenario. Payton’s return to coaching with the Denver Broncos has been highly anticipated, but the expectations are sky-high. O’Connell’s Minnesota Vikings and Taylor’s Cincinnati Bengals have both been playoff contenders, but the NFL’s unpredictability means no coach is truly safe. Gannon, a new face with the Arizona Cardinals, will have to prove himself quickly in a league that demands results.

Veteran Coaches: Safe for Now?

Veteran coaches like Sean McVay, Mike McDaniel, Mike Tomlin, and Matt LaFleur, with odds ranging from +2500 to +3000, appear to have more job security. McVay and Tomlin, in particular, have established themselves as some of the best in the business. However, the NFL is a fickle beast, and even the most successful coaches can find themselves on the chopping block if things go south.

The Longest Shots: Unlikely to Be Fired First

Finally, we have the longest shots, with odds of +5000 and beyond. Coaches like John Harbaugh, Shane Steichen, DeMeco Ryans, and Dan Campbell are seen as unlikely candidates to be fired first. Harbaugh’s Baltimore Ravens have been consistent playoff contenders, while Campbell’s Detroit Lions have shown signs of life under his leadership. Ryans and Steichen are new to their roles, and it’s unlikely they’ll be shown the door so soon.

In conclusion, the race to be the first NFL coach fired in 2024 is a complex and ever-changing betting market. While Dennis Allen currently leads the pack, the unpredictable nature of the league means anything can happen. Coaches like McCarthy, Saleh, and Eberflus will need to hit the ground running to avoid the dreaded pink slip. As the season unfolds, we’ll see which coaches rise to the occasion and which ones find themselves looking for new opportunities. The stakes are high, and the pressure is on—let the games begin!