A heavyweight showdown in the AFC pits the Buffalo Bills against the Kansas City Chiefs in the late-afternoon window Sunday. For the first time in the Josh Allen-Patrick Mahomes era, the Bills are the favored side on the NFL betting odds. This comes just after the Chiefs eliminated Buffalo from the NFL playoffs earlier this year as these juggernauts meet in Arrowhead for the fifth time in this rivalry.
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) October 11, 2022
Bills Have Done It Before
This may be the first time Buffalo is favored against Kansas City, but the Bills have beaten the Mahomes-led Chiefs: Week 5 of the 2021 season. The Bills shred the Chiefs’ defense, 38-20. But while Buffalo did the same in the playoffs, Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense still won the game.
Now, Buffalo has a dominant defense even with injuries to the likes of Micah Hyde and Tre’Davious White – who has been practicing. But the addition of Von Miller to the front seven has given Buffalo a more fearsome pass rush. The Bills have the fifth-most sacks and thus lead the league in takeaways.
They will need to force the Chiefs to surrender the ball. The Chiefs have scored seven touchdowns when they have 10+ plays versus just one when they have had three or fewer. Buffalo’s opponents have a 39.3% third-down conversion rate and a 50% red-zone conversion percentage. Both are solid but Buffalo will need to do better against the prolific Chiefs offense.
Are The Chiefs Still The NFL’s Best Offense?
This is a tough question to answer. On one hand, the Chiefs have scored the most points in the NFL. Kansas City has scored the most points and has had two games of 40+ points. The team also leads the league in average points per drive (2.96). Mahomes has a 110.5 passer rating, which is his best mark since his MVP season in 2018.
On the other hand, the Chiefs have lacked the ability to make those one-time big plays. The team is sorely missing Tyreek Hill. They were surprised by the Colts who managed to keep disrupting their offense. The result? Just 17 points and 315 total yards of offense, which led to their lone loss this season.
If the Chiefs are to beat Buffalo, again, they will have to hold on to the ball. That means less time Allen sees the field. That’s a tall task. But at an underdog price, it’s tempting of a bet online.
Bills vs Chiefs Game Injuries
Bills vs Chiefs Head-to-Head
The Chiefs hold an edge over Buffalo in their last four meetings: 3-1 on both the moneyline and the spread per the online sportsbook. The games have also typically been high-scoring: three of the four have gone ‘over’ on the total.
Bills vs Chiefs Game Information
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 16
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
- How to watch Bills vs Chiefs? ESPN
Bills vs Chiefs Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
Take a Look at Other 2 Previews, Picks & Predictions For NFL Week 6 Matchups
- Bengals vs Saints Odds, Game Preview, Live Stream, Picks & Predictions
- Ravens vs Giants Odds, Game Preview, Live Stream, Picks & Predictions
Bills vs Chiefs Betting Lines
Bills vs Chiefs Prediction
The Bills, at their best, are the most unstoppable team in the NFL. This team does not just beat opponents: it destroys them. However, if a team can slow Buffalo down, it will likely beat it. That’s why Buffalo is 1-7 in games decided by one score or fewer since last season. And on the other side, Kansas City is 8-3 and two of those losses came against Cincinnati.
The Chiefs may not have Hill, but Travis Kelce has been a beast against Buffalo. The tight end has scored in each of the last four games against Buffalo. The Bills’ secondary is also not at full strength. But most damning of all: The Bills’ opponents average the fifth-longest average time per drive. Give Mahomes that much time and the Chiefs will score.
The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.