The Buffalo Bills have not looked the same since returning from their bye week. The team looks vulnerable and is just 1-4 as an NFL pick against the spread (ATS). But they can look like their old dominant selves when they visit the New England Patriots. Buffalo is favored by five points on the NFL odds, though it tends to win by much more than that against New England in the past two seasons.
Bills vs Patriots Betting Lines
Buffalo Winning Despite Litany of Injuries
The Bills have put up an average of 26.6 points in its last five games. That still places them as the fourth-best offense on average. However, Buffalo has also averaged 1.8 turnovers in this span. Josh Allen and the offense have not always been in sync largely due to his injury.
“ANOTHER RED ZONE TURNOVER!!”
Jim Nantz calls the 8th Josh Allen interception in the last 7 games
📺 CBS | Paramount+
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 24, 2022
Allen is not only bothered by his elbow, but his lack of practice time has made him and the offense sloppy. The quarterback has thrown seven interceptions versus six touchdowns in his last five games. While he is still able to make plays with his legs (three rushing touchdowns), the Bills can also trip over themselves.
The defense is battered by injuries too. Edge rusher Von Miller is the latest defender to fall. Both the front and secondary are missing key players, thus making Buffalo a shaky bet online.
Scoop on Free Play from the Locker Room
Patriots’ Defense Can Make a Statement
The Patriots have a golden opportunity here as they welcome a hobbling Bills team to Foxborough. New England can gain a measure of revenge while improving to 7-5 and further inching to a playoff spot. But Bill Belichick’s crew still has a tall task ahead of them in having to hold down Buffalo.
New England is a defensive force … when it faces the scrubs. In their six wins, the Pats held teams to an average of 8.7 points. In their five losses, opponents averaged 30 points. If you dissect these records, New England has beaten teams with poor quarterback play, notably the New York Jets (twice) and Pittsburgh Steelers.
But against the likes of Tua Tagovailoa and even Justin Fields, the Patriots ‘D’ has struggled. New England is 2-3-0 ATS as a dog and 4-1-1 as a favorite. Against the mortal Bills, New England could buck this trend.
Bills vs Patriots Game Injuries
Bills vs Patriots Head to Head
The Bills are 4-1 in their last five against the Patriots. In three of their wins, Buffalo scored 33 or more points. Four of their last six games have also gone over the total.
Bills vs Patriots Game Information
- Game: Bills vs Patriots
- Date / Time: Thursday, Dec. 1, 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.
- Bills vs Patriots Live stream: NFL Game Pass
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Bills vs Patriots Game Weather Conditions
It will be fairly chilly (39 degrees Fahrenheit) with a bit of a breeze (22 mph) and 20 percent of precipitation.
Bills vs Patriots Game Picks & Prediction
Prediction Score: Bills 26, Patriots 22
- Worth betting on the Moneyline?
New England is a “pretender” and won’t beat any team worth a damn. The +185 line may seem like a solid price, but it’s a losing bet and we won’t recommend it. Buffalo may be error-prone, but the Bills still find ways to win (4-2 when committing two-plus turnovers).
- Worth Betting ATS?
However, those looking to bet New England should do so on the spread. Getting five points on the Pats in the sportsbook is decent. Buffalo gets sloppy and will make this another close game.
- Worth betting on the Totals?
The total will go over despite the Bills’ struggles on offense. Buffalo still finds ways to score and New England struggles to contain mobile quarterbacks like Allen. As such, the best bet here is to go over the total.