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Sunday, 24 September, 2023
1:00 PM

NFL Matchups

Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints

Packers vs Saints Prediction, Preview, Stream, Odds & Picks

Let’s check the latest news, stats, injury reports, and NFL Odds for Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints. We’ve plenty of NFL predictions for you to consider.

Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints faceoff against Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers. The Saints enter the game as a slight favorite (-125) despite being on the road. New Orleans is currently favored by -1.5 points while the Game Total is currently sitting on 41.5.

New Orleans's biggest strength has been their defense, ranking #3 in the league while allowing just 314 yards per game. Much of their success has been in locking down the pass game, holding opposing QBs to the #1-least yards per game: 187. The Saints have done the best job shutting down opposing tight ends, holding them to 27 yards per game (#1-best). New Orleans's best position group in coverage has been their linebackers, which rank #3 in the league in locking down route-runners. New Orleans's pass rush has been strong this year, led by their defensive tackles, which check in as the #3-best unit in terms of getting to the passer. In terms of their offense, the Saints have ranked #26 in the league in total yards per game. They've passed for 223 yards per game (#23 in football). On the ground they've ranked #30 with 3.72 yards per carry.

Green Bay's primary disadvantage has been their run defense, which has allowed a monstrous 5.02 yards per attempt on the ground this year, sliding them into the #6 spot among the league's worst. That kind of ineffectiveness has also leached over to their pass defense, which has landed them in the #29 spot in terms of yards per target (8.31). Packers defensive ends are perhaps most responsible for their dismal run defense this year, given that they grade out as the #2-worst unit in the NFL. When it comes to their offense, the Packers check in at #16 in football when it comes to total yards per game. Their passing game has compiled 231 yards per game (#15 in football). Their run game has ranked #13 with 4.48 yards per attempt on the ground.

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Green Bay Packers

Romeo Doubs

Over / Under

0

Pass Attempts

0/0

THE BLITZ projects Romeo Doubs to be much more involved in his offense's passing game this week (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (15.7% in games he has played).

Josiah Deguara

Over / Under

0

Pass Attempts

0/0

Josiah Deguara has accumulated a measly 2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 16th percentile among tight ends.

Jayden Reed

Over / Under

0

Pass Attempts

0/0

The New Orleans Saints pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.82 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-least in the NFL.

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New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr

Over / Under

0

Pass Attempts

0/0

The New Orleans Saints have played in the 7th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.

Rashid Shaheed

Over / Under

0

Pass Attempts

0/0

Rashid Shaheed's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 81.7% to 89.3%.

Taysom Hill

Over / Under

0

Pass Attempts

0/0

THE BLITZ projects Taysom Hill to run for 0.28 TDs in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers and tight ends.

ROI - Saints

ROI - Packers

Saints Stats

Packers Stats

Betting Trends

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The Green Bay Packers have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+1.60 Units / 15% ROI)

Units

+1.6

ROI

14.55%

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The New Orleans Saints have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)

Units

+5.3

ROI

24.09%

A.J. Dillon

A.J. Dillon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.75 Units / 56% ROI)

Units

+4.75

ROI

55.56%

* Stats and rankings in this article have been adjusted for context (i.e. weather, game state, field position, down, distance, etc). These are more predictive than raw stats and put players/teams on a more even playing field for the purpose of comparison. Note that, by design, these stats will not match up with those you find on stat pages and leaderboards around the industry.

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