After struggling through a pair of road games, the Buffalo Bills return to Orchard Park as Week 5’s biggest favorites. Buffalo will play host to Pittsburgh, which upset them in last season’s home opener. The NFL betting odds are spotting the Steelers two touchdowns (+14). The Bills are 3-7 against the spread (ATS) in their last 10 games against Pittsburgh but are the best at blowing opponents out.
Pickett Must Have a Steel Stomach
Kenny Pickett is officially the Pittsburgh Steelers’ starter. It comes as little surprise as he is the team’s new franchise quarterback. However, the team is right to be concerned for him as he makes his first NFL start against the Super Bowl favorites: the Bills.
The rookie will get roughed up by the Bills. Pickett threw three picks against the Jets and will now contend with the Bills’ fearsome defense. Buffalo has 11 sacks and is tied for sixth in the league pressure rate (27.7%). Pittsburgh’s offensive line will get manhandled as its already struggling offense tanks more.
Will Pickett turn the team around? Pittsburgh is ranked 28th in the NFL in expected points contributed on offense (-15.39). Pickett did turn the ball over a lot but he also rushed for two scores. With the team squarely behind him, the 24-year-old will bite his mouthguard and go at Buffalo hard.
Bills Ready To Bully Again
There is no team in the NFL better at crushing opponents than the Bills. This team will mow down anyone standing in its way. If the opponent can fight back, the Bills will struggle to close. But that is easier said than done as Buffalo’s average margin of victory since 2021 is a whopping 22 points.
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The Bills are 5-1-2 ATS when favored by 10+ points. This team feeds off each other so when the defense gets going, the offense does, and vice versa. It just so happens Buffalo is a top-five unit on both ends: fifth in scoring offense and second in scoring defense. Josh Allen is a favorite to win MVP on the online sportsbook and Von Miller makes the pass rush even deadlier.
It will be a tall task to slow Buffalo down. On the defensive end, an opponent has to figure out how to slow Allen down. He’s arguably the best dual-threat quarterback and can extend plays or salvage them when the line breaks down. On offense, a team can look to exploit Buffalo’s thin secondary. But to do that, the line must hold up against a heavy front seven.
Steelers vs Bills Game Injuries
Steelers vs Bills Head-to-Head
Pittsburgh has won five of its last six games in Buffalo. Of course, most of this came before the Josh Allen era. Buffalo is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games as a favorite. The total has gone under in six of Buffalo’s last seven games against Pittsburgh.
Steelers vs Bills Game Information
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 9
- Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- How to watch Steelers vs Bills? ESPN
Steelers vs Bills Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
Steelers vs Bills Betting Lines
Steelers vs Bills Prediction
Buffalo should return to its dominant ways. Pittsburgh is no pushover on defense so there might be some resistance. But Pickett, as bold as he will be, will get picked apart by the Bills. He will get pressured constantly and turn the ball over a lot. The Bills’ defense may even score a few points off of his mistakes.
We expect the Bills to make a statement here and return to the top of the NFL Power Rankings. Laying the points is hefty, but the Bills are worth every bet online.
“The odds and predictions in the article are based on time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.”