The Kansas City Chiefs come off their bye and play host to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are coming off an epic comeback win. It may be different mindsets here as the NFL odds expect the hosts to beat the Jaguars handily. This is a rematch of their Week 10 match where Kansas City just covered the 9½-point spread by beating Jacksonville by 10.
Jaguars vs Chiefs Betting Lines
Jaguars Must Remain Relentless
We’re not surprised if none of the Jaguars players or coaching staff got any sleep following their 27-point comeback victory against the Chargers in the Wild Card round. It became the third-biggest comeback in NFL playoffs history. Trevor Lawrence went from Carson Palmer to Tom Brady in the span of halves.
But the question is if Jacksonville has used up all its “magic.” The Jags’ disastrous first half can’t be ignored. They committed four turnovers then the defense allowed the Chargers to score on four of their first five drives, granted some of it came with Los Angeles already in Jaguars territory.
And if we exclude the Chargers game, the Jaguars are 2-6 when committing more turnovers than their opponent. That’s something to consider when betting online because this team can ill afford to give the Chiefs extra possessions.
Chiefs’ Defense Remains Vulnerable
The Chiefs returned to the top of the NFL despite losing their top receiver Tyreek Hill. Patrick Mahomes still led the league in most passing stats making Kansas City the top offense in scoring (29.2 points per game) and yardage (413 yards per game).
But as good as Kansas City’s offense is, its defense is mediocre at best. The Chiefs’ “D” is actually 16th in scoring (21.7 points) and allows the fifth-highest passer rating (95.3) from opposing quarterbacks. Lawrence posted a 106.1 passer rating when he faced KC.
It’s this soft defense that makes Kansas City struggle to cover. The Chiefs are just 7-10 as an NFL pick against the spread (ATS) this season and are 3-5 ATS at home. But at Arrowhead, the defense picks up a bit and allows just 19 points (11th in NFL). That’s why six of their eight home games went under the totals.
Jaguars vs Chiefs Game Injuries
Jaguars vs Chiefs Head-to-Head
The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Jaguars. The total went under in four of their last five games. Also, Kansas City has won five of its last six home games against Jacksonville.
Jaguars vs Chiefs Game Information
- Game: Jaguars vs Chief
- Date/Time: Saturday, Jan. 21, 4:30 p.m. ET
- Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, MO
- How to watch Jaguars vs Chiefs?: NBC
Jaguars vs Chiefs Live stream: NFL Game Pass
Jaguars vs Chiefs Game Weather Conditions
It will be 37 degrees Fahrenheit and feel like 25 degrees Saturday in Kansas City. Expect a mix of rain and snow with 72% of precipitation. Wind speeds are around six miles per hour.
Jaguars vs Chiefs Game Picks and Prediction
Predicted Score: Chiefs 27 Jaguars 20
- Worth Betting on the Moneyline?
The Chiefs demand a lot on the moneyline at -465. You’d have to wager close to $500 to win $100. That’s a tough ask considering how difficult it is to put Jacksonville away. While we favor Kansas City to win, betting that much on the online sports betting lines is too rich.
- Worth Betting ATS?
Chiefs backers should instead look for them to cover even if they have to win by 10+ points. The Chiefs did barely cover when they faced Jacksonville. This team has a poor ATS home record as a favorite: 2-4-1 ATS this season and 21-22-3 since 2018. But Kansas City’s offense has been a juggernaut and could get it done.
- Worth Betting on the Totals?
Three out of every four Chiefs home games go under the total. However, six of Jacksonville’s road games have gone over. So what will give? With the loud Arrowhead faithful disrupting Jacksonville’s offense, this game is more likely to go below its lofty total of 53.
The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.