Last year, the Buffalo Bills demolished the New England, Patriots, 47-17 in the super wild card weekend. Quarterback Josh Allen recorded a perfect passer rating and the Bills had its best playoff showing, perhaps all-time. Now, the NFL betting lines expect Buffalo to have something close to that game. They are this wild card weekend’s biggest favorites as they face the undermanned Miami Dolphins.
Let’s check the latest NFL odds, stats, injury reports, and NFL lines for Dolphins vs Bills. We’ve plenty of Vegas NFL odds for NFL Wild Card Playoffs Games.
Dolphins vs Bills Betting Lines
Dolphins Face Injuries and Cold Weather
Well, Dolphins fans. You can at least say you made it back to the playoffs because this is how far Miami gets. Not only is Miami potentially down to its third-string quarterback, but the team is also missing at least three more starters on top of those already on the injury reserve.
Miami will also have to brave the wintery weather of Buffalo. This team, historically, has not fared well when playing in cold weather. The stereotype is true, as Miami has a -16.9 point differential on average in its last nine games when temperatures drop below 40 degrees.
Dolphins past 9 outdoor games below 40 degrees
2022 at BUF L by 3
2022 at SF L by 16
2020 at BUF L by 30
2019 at CLE L by 17
2018 at BUF L by 25
2018 at GB L by 19
2017 at KC L by 16
2017 at BUF L by 8
2016 at PIT L by 18 pic.twitter.com/m7oCb7sM2g— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) January 10, 2023
As such, the Dolphins face the largest spread in NFL wild card history. The last time Miami was this big of an underdog was in Week 8 against Buffalo last season (+15). It pushed on that spread. The Dolphins are 3-2 ATS as a road underdog this season, so there is value in taking them as an NFL pick against the spread.
Bills Can’t Overlook Dolphins Amidst Turnover Woes
For Bills backers, underestimating the Dolphins can be a critical mistake. Buffalo may win, but covering that spread could be a task. The Bills are just 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven games as favorites over Miami. The Bills have also not covered in their last three games against the Dolphins.
Buffalo is also just 3-4 ATS as a home favorite and has failed to cover the last three times it was favored by 10 or more points. Despite having the second-best point differential in the NFL, Buffalo has appeared vulnerable during this second half of the season.
Part of it is due to injuries as the Bills lost several key defenders. Allen is also recovering from his elbow injury and has turned the ball over in eight of his last 10 games. Buffalo has the second-most turnovers in the NFL (27), making them a shaky bet online.
Dolphins vs Bills Game Injuries
Dolphins vs Bills Head-to-Head
The Bills have won eight of their last 10 games against Miami. Buffalo has also won six straight when hosting it. Eleven of their last 16 games have gone over the total, including three of their last four games at Orchard Park.
Dolphins vs Bills Game Information
- Game: Dolphins vs Bills
- Date/Time: Sunday, Jan. 15, 1:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- How to watch Dolphins vs Bills?: CBS
Dolphins vs Bills Live stream: NFL Game Pass
Dolphins vs Bills Game Weather Conditions
It will be a chilly 23 degrees (feels like 13) Fahrenheit this Sunday afternoon in Orchard Park. The forecast suggests sunny weather with wind speeds at eight km/hr.
Dolphins vs Bills Game Picks and Prediction
Predicted Score: Bills 34, Dolphins 13
- Worth Betting on the Moneyline?
Bettors will need to stake $850 to win $100 on the Bills to win. As heavy as that is, that is a relatively solid bet, as Buffalo will not lose at home to Skylar Thompson and the Dolphins. The good news surrounding Damar Hamlin should also continue to inspire Buffalo. They are not losing.
- Worth Betting ATS?
Covering two touchdowns is a tall task for most teams. While the Bills have a poor record when laid with big spreads, especially with their turnover proneness, this may be when they beat it emphatically. So lay the points on Buffalo.
- Worth Betting on the Totals?
The Bills will roll the Dolphins here. The question is, how many points will they drop on Miami? It may even be possible for Buffalo to go over the total by itself. Miami allowed 32 points the last time they played in Buffalo and that was with a healthier team. Go over in the sportsbook.
The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.
