The Atlanta Falcons descend on the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field on Sunday, marking their second straight road game in as many weeks.
What began as a matchup cornered with the Seahawks at -3 across NFL betting markets is now down to a pick’em line This perceptible market shift is in part due to the knee-jerk reaction to Seattle’s uninspired loss to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 2. And, equally, the Falcons’ spirited fight-back against the defending Super Bowl champions in the same week.
At the crux of it is a vibe about these teams as well. There’s an overwhelming feeling that the Falcons are due a win after punching above their weight class in both of their games so far, and that is drawing action towards the Falcons here, pushing the NFL lines and odds down.
So, where is the value in the betting online markets?
Falcons’ Offense Flying
The bar was set low for the Falcons going into the season and to some extent the markets weren’t wrong on that score as they’re winless after two weeks and propping up the AFC South.
Where the Falcons have been punching above their weight is against the spread (ATS). They’re 2-0-0 ATS, which includes covers as the +5½ underdogs in a 27-26 loss to the New Orleans Saints and as the +10½ underdogs in a 31-27 loss to the Los Angeles Rams.
On 4th & inches, Marcus Mariota pulls a Randall Cunningham 👀 pic.twitter.com/VSAiUOn6tQ
— DIE-HARD 🦅 Fans (@Eaglesfans9) September 18, 2022
Atlanta Falcons were unlucky in their season home opener as they were a field goal away from pulling off the outright upset, but Younghoe Koo’s 63-yard attempt was blocked by the Saints.
In last week’s loss to the Rams, the Falcons were trailing 31-10 in the fourth quarter before they rallied back to come within four points, only to have Marcus Mariota throw an end zone interception that did them in and kiboshed the potential upset.
Seahawks Fail to Launch
After delivering one of the big upsets of Week 1, beating their former quarterback Russell Wilson and the much-fancied Denver Broncos at Lumen Field in Monday Night Football, Seattle Seahawks fell flat the following week in a 27-7 loss to the Niners at Levi Stadium.
Geno Smith struggled against the Niner’s defense as he went 25 of 30 for 197 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception. When all was said and done, the Seattle offense mustered up merely 216 yards of total offense.
Geno Smith on getting the Seahawks’ offense going after six consecutive scoreless quarters: pic.twitter.com/EvYF2yicgP
— Brady Henderson (@BradyHenderson) September 22, 2022
Pete Carroll’s side was undone by turnovers (3), poor play-calling and bad game management. At one point, they were running plays with just 10 men on the field. The worst interception came on an inept play from third-string running back Deejay Dallas, who tried to throw a touchdown pass in the back of the end zone to DK Metcalf. It backfired, to put it mildly, as he threw an interception.
Seahawks vs Falcons Game Injuries
Falcons vs Seahawks Head-to-Head
The Falcons lead the head-to-head series 6-4 SU and ATS in their last 10 meetings, while the total has gone over in eight of these same 10 games.
The Seahawks won the last two meetings. They beat the Falcons 38-25 on Sept. 13, 2020, in Atlanta. They also took the 27-20 win in Atlanta on Oct. 27, 2019.
These two rosters have undergone significant changes since 2020, namely with the departure of Russell Wilson in Seattle and Matt Ryan in Atlanta.
Falcons vs Seahawks Game Information
- Date: Sunday, September 25, 2022
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
- How to watch Falcons vs Seahawks? ESPN
Falcons vs Seahawks Live Stream: NFL Game Pass
Falcons vs Seahawks Betting Lines
Falcons vs Seahawks Prediction
With the mad market movement dwindling this to a pick’em, there could be late buyback on the Seahawks that will see the line move back up a fraction before kickoff. Alternatively, it could cross the plain and lift the Falcons into favor before kickoff as well if the public continues to pound Atlanta.
Although the Falcons are winless, they’re better than most expected they would be after a 2-0 start against the spread. Two games is a small cross-section to work with, but when looking at the quality of the opponents the Falcons faced up to this point, they do deserve credit.
As such, this is a winnable game for Mariota and the Falcons. For side bettors, even if the NFL line remains at a pick’em, the Falcons would still be worth the tickle. Especially if the juice offers better value than the Falcons’ Moneyline odds.
For total bettors, the over looks like the better play here. The Falcons are averaging 26.5 points but the defense is porous and is allowing 28.5 ppg. The Seahawk’s offense has struggled since Week 1, but against this defense, Smith, and Co. could find some success.
“The odds and predictions in the article are based on time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.”