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Monday, 25 September, 2023
7:15 PM

NFL Matchups

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles

Buccaneers vs Eagles Prediction, Preview, Stream, Odds & Picks

Let’s check the latest news, stats, injury reports, and NFL Odds for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles. We’ve plenty of NFL predictions for you to consider.

Monday Night Football will showcase a matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0). Oddsmakers peg the Eagles as the big favorite with an implied win probablity of 69%, leaving the Buccaneers with a 31% chance to record a win. The current spread is the Eagles -5.5 with a Game Total of 44.0.

Tampa Bay's primary disadvantage this season has been their rushing offense, which has ranked #32 in football with a low 3.58 yards per carry. The most important component of a strong ground game is a good offensive line. If the line isn't opening up holes and creating space, it doesn't matter how good a team's running backs are. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, their line ranks #5-worst in the league in run blocking. Perhaps because they routinely failt to successfully establish the run, Tampa Bay has also lacked effectiveness through the air. They've scraped together a measly 6.49 yards per target, ranking the bottom 10 in football. When it comes to their defense, the Buccaneers check in at #11 in football when it comes to total yards allowed per game. Opposing air attacks have notched 214 yards per game against Tampa Bay this year (#13 in football). Opposing ball-carriers have ranked #13 against them with 4.5 yards per ground attempt. This Buccaneers pass defense hits their peak effectiveness when it comes to defending opposing running backs, keeping them in check at just 25 yards per game (#4-best in the league). Tampa Bay's defensive effectiveness bottoms out when it comes to defending opposing tight ends, who have caught 74.6% of their passes (#7-highest in the league).

Philadelphia's biggest strength has been their rushing offense, ranking #4 in the league with 4.82 yards per carry. The key component of any team's ground game is their offensive line. The best running back can't do much if the line doesn't open up holes for them, and a worst running back can find success if he's given open space. Philadelphia's o-line ranks #4-best in this regard. With how successful they've been on the ground, this has opened up opportunities through the air as well; Philadelphia has averaged 7.47 yards per target, which ranks them #7 in football. In terms of their defense, the Eagles have ranked #14 in the league in total yards allowed per game. Opposing offenses have passed for 220 yards per game through the air against them (#19 in football). On the ground, opposing ball-carriers have ranked #20 with 4.62 yards per carry. Philadelphia has been most effective in shutting down opposing wide receivers, holding them to a 60.9% completion rate (#1-lowest). Positionally, perhaps their worst defensive asset has been their linebackers, which rank just #30 in the league in terms of getting to the passer.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield

Over / Under

34.5

Pass Attempts

-128/-110

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Rachaad White

Over / Under

48.5

Pass Attempts

-110/-120

The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Over / Under

44

Pass Attempts

-112/-108

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been among the leading passing offenses in the NFL since the start of last season (#4), averaging an impressive 279 yards per game through the air.

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Philadelphia Eagles

Olamide Zaccheaus

Over / Under

1.5

Pass Attempts

110/-141

The leading projections forecast Olamide Zaccheaus to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing offense this week (3.2% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (13.8% in games he has played).

A.J. Brown

Over / Under

72.5

Pass Attempts

-130/-101

A.J. Brown has put up a colossal 104.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among WRs.

A.J. Brown

Over / Under

72.5

Pass Attempts

-130/-101

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.33 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the NFL.

ROI - Eagles

ROI - Buccaneers

Eagles Stats

Buccaneers Stats

Betting Trends

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored first in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+2.30 Units / 15% ROI)

Units

+2.3

ROI

15.49%

Chris Godwin

Chris Godwin has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.90 Units / 57% ROI)

Units

+8.9

ROI

57.42%

* Stats and rankings in this article have been adjusted for context (i.e. weather, game state, field position, down, distance, etc). These are more predictive than raw stats and put players/teams on a more even playing field for the purpose of comparison. Note that, by design, these stats will not match up with those you find on stat pages and leaderboards around the industry.

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