The less carries a player receives, the fewer opportunities he has to accrue rushing stats.
THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to be a much smaller piece of his team's run game this week (9.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (30.3% in games he has played).
This stat holds extra predictive value because THE BLITZ has adjusted it for context (including opposing offense, weather, down, distance, field position, and more).
The Washington Commanders pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.85 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in the NFL.
ROI - Bills
ROI - Commanders
Commanders vs Bills Trends
The Washington Commanders have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.80 Units / 18% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.55 Units / 14% ROI)
Josh Allen has hit the Passing Yards Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.20 Units / 36% ROI)
* Stats and rankings in this article have been adjusted for context (i.e. weather, game state, field position, down, distance, etc). These are more predictive than raw stats and put players/teams on a more even playing field for the purpose of comparison. Note that, by design, these stats will not match up with those you find on stat pages and leaderboards around the industry.