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2023 NFL Passing Yards Leader

It’s the most wonderful time of the year. Not Christmas, rather the impending return weekends full of NFL action.

With preseason games less than a month away, it’s time to start seriously considering the NFL betting options for futures bets.

2023 NFL Passing Yards Leader
Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs against the Tennessee Titans/Andy Lyons/Getty Images/AFP

The first area we will cover here is which signal caller will lead the NFL in passing yards in 2023. Despite a clear favorite, there are several gunslingers who can challenge for the crown.

Let’s review the current NFL lines and preview a few of the frontrunners to lead the league in passing yards.

The Favorite – Mahomes

Bet on Mahomes +350

The reigning yardage leader is an obvious choice to top the NFL odds board heading into the 2023 season. Mahomes was not only the passing yardage king last year; he dominated the field with 5,250 yards and an average of 8.1 yards per pass. The closest competition was Justin Herbert, who threw for 4,739 yards with an average of 6.8 per completion.

For reference, Mahomes also led the NFL in TD passes (41), QBR (77.6) and ranked third in quarterback rating (105.2).

With all of his important weapons returning to action, specifically tight end Travis Kelce, Mahones is a smart bet but lacks a bit of value compared to guys like Herbert and Joe Burrow (+800)

The Value Pick – Burrow

Bet on Burrow +800

Herbert may have finished with more passing yards than Burrow last season, but the latter is our NFL pick based on value heading into NFL Week 1. Burrow is our NFL bet to be the No. 1 contender because, despite finishing fifth in the yardage race, he didn’t throw nearly as much as the players ahead of him. Because of this, Burrow led the NFL in completion percentage (68.3%) among quarterbacks with at least 600 attempts.

Despite passing 141 fewer times than the league-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Burrow finished with career-bests in completions and touchdowns.

Burrow has the talent to take over for Mahomes, and the Bengals have a wealth of riches regarding targets for him to throw to. It may be the last season we see Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, and Tee Higgins play together, and we are banking on head coach Zac Taylor letting them take more responsibility on this offense.

Burrow will challenge Mahones and Herbert for the NFL lead in passing yards if the Bengals become more of a pass-happy offense.

The Longshot: Rodgers

Bet on Rodgers +2200

There has been a lot of hype surrounding Rodgers’ move to the Big Apple and his potential production as the new quarterback for the New York Jets. However, this feels suspiciously like the Mets during the preseason after signing veteran pitcher Justin Verlander. The odds are attractive, but the Jets’ offense doesn’t have the tools necessary to make Rodgers a reasonable NFL pick on this prop.

Rodgers hasn’t finished in the top 10 of passing leaders since 2020, with his performance worsening each season since.

Even if Rodgers returns to his MVP form of 2020 and ‘21, we have to understand that he did not win those trophies based on his yardage totals compared to his peers. Instead, Rodgers was a two-time MVP during this decade because he is overall one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and doesn’t need to pad his stats with passing yards to dominate.

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