After a successful 2020 season in which three of its four teams made the playoffs, the AFC North will try to replicate that feat and once again be the best division in the AFC.
The Pittsburgh Steelers won yet another division title under future Hall of Fame quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, but the Cleveland Browns — who had not won a playoff game since the 1994 season and had not made any playoff appearance since 2002 — beat the Steelers in the Wild- Card round. The Browns achieved a big breakthrough.
The Ravens won a playoff game but, just like the season before, lost in the divisional round. These teams are solid and consistent, but they have not been able to take the next step and make the Super Bowl in recent years. The Steelers haven’t been to the Super Bowl in 10 years. The Ravens haven’t been to the Super Bowl in eight years. These are familiar playoff teams, but they need extra ingredients to fulfill their potential. Let’s see what the AFC North has to offer in 2021.
Baltimore Ravens
2020 ATS Record: 10-6
2020 O-U Record: 7-9
Online betting handicappers feasted on the Ravens’ ability to beat bad teams by solid margins. The Ravens were also a team that was great when it maxed out but had several games in which it played poorly. There was a wide degree of variance between Baltimore’s best and worst games. This was an erratic team that performed in bursts (good and bad), as opposed to a steady team that existed on the same level for 16 games.
Best Offseason Move: Signing Kevin Zeitler and Alejandro Villanueva to fortify the offensive line after Orlando Brown left. The Ravens need to do whatever they can to put quarterback Lamar Jackson in a position to succeed. They had to make moves to compensate for the loss of Brown, who went to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Ravens are relatively solid on defense and have the pieces they need to be a top-tier team. In the AFC playoffs, the Ravens’ defense was superb against the Buffalo Bills. Baltimore lost because the offense cratered and failed to finish drives. Going through the offensive line to address problems was the right approach.
Worst Offseason Move: Losing Matthew Judon to the Patriots. As much as the Ravens need to focus on offense, it remains that Judon was one of their best defensive players. Was it really worth the cost savings to let him go? Keep this point in mind: It’s not just the fact that Judon left; the fact that he went to the rival New England Patriots is also a big hit for the Ravens. The Patriots have stood in the way of Baltimore in past seasons. It is true that New England regressed sharply last season, but the Patriots could be a playoff contender again in 2021. If these teams are battling for wild card spots, Judon will be on the wrong side of the fence.
Instant Impact: Rashod Bateman was taken late in the first round by the Ravens. He is a receiver who will try to give the Ravens another pass-catching threat to spread the field and make it easier for Jackson to find targets for big plays. Bateman will try to fit in alongside receiver Marquise Brown and tight end Mark Andrews. If he lives up to his first-round status and becomes a high-level receiver, the Ravens will come one big step closer to having the kind of passing attack that can put them on par with the Kansas City Chiefs and enable them to get to the Super Bowl.
Strength Of Schedule
The Ravens, as a playoff team, face a tough schedule. They face the NFC North in their four regularly scheduled interconference games. They play the Chiefs, Colts, and the 10-6 Dolphins. Their 17th game is against the Los Angeles Rams. The Ravens play host to the Chargers and visit the Raiders. It isn’t the toughest schedule in the league, but it’s harder than most. They get to play the Bengals twice, the Broncos once, and the Lions once, but most of their schedule is daunting. Their Super Bowl odds are at +1200.
For Better Or For Worse
The Ravens went 11-5 last year. Remember that they play 17 games this season, so the question is whether the Ravens will go 12-5 or 11-6. The Browns had a sensational 2020 season but might regress slightly. The Steelers are getting older, not younger. The Ravens, if their additions to the offense are valuable enough, should be able to improve upon their 2020 record.
Predicted Finish: 1st In AFC North
Cleveland Browns
2020 ATS Record: 6-10
2020 O-U Record: 9-7
The Browns won a lot of games straight up but didn’t cover the spread with great consistency. The Browns were not regularly a favorite early in the season, because experts weren’t expecting them to be so good. Yet, in the latter half of the season, when the Browns kept winning games straight up, they received more respect from oddsmakers. Yet, they didn’t cover the spreads they were given. A good example of the Browns’ season from a betting standpoint is that they beat the Cincinnati Bengals twice, but both times by small margins. This is a reason to be concerned about regression in 2021.
Best Offseason Move: Drafting Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah. The Browns got great value by taking a linebacker out of Notre Dame who, in the opinion of many, should have been taken a lot earlier in the NFL draft. The Browns got him midway through the second round when many felt he ought to have been picked late in the first round. That’s great value for Cleveland.
Worst Offseason Move: Losing Sheldon Richardson to the Vikings. Sheldon Richardson is a great run-stuffer. His presence on the field has helped several NFL teams over the years. The Browns obviously have to juggle cost considerations on their roster, but was this the piece they could afford to lose? This is not how Cleveland wanted its offseason to unfold.
Instant Impact: Greg Newsome II from Northwestern. The cornerback gives the Browns more reinforcements in the secondary, enabling them to defend against the Pittsburgh Steelers’ downfield passing game. This is also a move designed to fortify the Browns’ defense against the elite offenses of the AFC, such as the Buffalo Bills and the two-time defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs. This is a move made with an intent that goes beyond the AFC North. The Browns are thinking big.
Strength Of Schedule
Playing the Ravens and Steelers twice each will be tough. Playing the NFC North will also be tough for the Browns. Keep in mind they faced the weak NFC East last year. Cleveland visits the Chiefs in Week 1. This is going to be a tough ride.
For Better Or For Worse
The Browns might still make the playoffs, but they went 4-0 against the NFC East last year. It will be hard for them to go 4-0 against the NFC North this year. They will probably finish either 10-7 or 11-6, slightly worse than 11-5.
Predicted Finish: 2nd in the AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers
2020 ATS Record: 10-6
2020 O-U Record: 7-7-2
Betting on the Steelers was great when the team went 11-0 to start the 2020 season. Then the Steelers cratered late and lost games against the spread. It’s that simple. There is no need to overthink it.
The Steelers were crushed by the injury to pass rusher Bud Dupree late in the season. They weren’t the same team without him, and their defense got boat-raced by the Browns in the AFC Wild-Card round. Roethlisberger doesn’t have many seasons left, so the clock is ticking on his career. He has to make this season count.
Best Offseason Move: Picking Pat Freiermuth in the draft. The Steelers gave Roethlisberger the kind of tight end who will be a reliable possession receiver on third-and-5. The Steelers have downfield threats in their passing game. They didn’t need another one. They needed a short-passing game outlet, and Freiermuth fits that bill perfectly.
Worst Offseason Move: Losing Dupree to the Titans. The Steelers saw how important Dupree was last season, but maybe they were jolted by his injury and didn’t want to keep him around. Ultimately, Pittsburgh might regret bailing on this particular roster spot.
Instant Impact: Najee Harris. The Alabama running back was part of a national championship team last year. He is great at catching passes out of the backfield in addition to being a ball-carrier. He is a solid addition to the offense.
Strength Of Schedule
The Steelers play the NFC North, and like other AFC North teams, they played the NFC East last year, which instantly makes their 2021 schedule tougher than 2020. Pittsburgh visits Buffalo and Kansas City, the two best teams in the AFC. This is a nasty schedule.
For Better Or For Worse
The Steelers went 12-4 last year. With the rough schedule and the loss of Dupree working against them, the Steelers might be fortunate to win 10 games. They might slide to 9-8 in the new 17-game NFL schedule.
Predicted Finish: 3rd In AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals
2020 ATS Record: 9-7
2020 O-U Record: 7-8-1
The Bengals somehow covered spreads most of the time though quarterback Joe Burrow was injured midway through the season. Spreads were large, and people expected the Bengals to lose games by 20-30 points, but Cincinnati kept games somewhat close, and stunned the Tennessee Titans — and Steelers — in a huge upset. This was not a good team, but it was a feisty team that didn’t quit.
Best Offseason Move: Plucking defensive end Trey Hendrickson from the Saints. The Bengals need some high-end additions on defense, and this topped the list. Cincinnati hopes that if Burrow stays healthy, the defense will enable the team to become even more competitive.
Worst Offseason Move: Not taking Penei Sewell in the draft. The Bengals need pass protection for Joe Burrow, but they chose not to take the top-rated lineman in the draft. Wide receivers are good, but offensive linemen are better.
Instant Impact: Ja’Marr Chase. The Bengals took Chase instead of Sewell. While they probably should have gone with the offensive lineman, Chase should still be a very productive receiver in Cincinnati. He played with Burrow in college at LSU and should be a favorite target for his star quarterback.
Strength Of Schedule
The Bengals are a bad team, so almost every team they play will be a comparatively better team.
For Better Or For Worse
The Bengals were 4-11-1 last year, but their schedule is arguably worse. Burrow, though, should be able to win at least five games. He played only half a season last year and should be better in 2021. The Bengals will have a better record.
