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AFC North Preview NFL Odds

Best Bets and 2021 NFL Predictions

Matt Landis:

Hey everybody, welcome to the BetUS NFL show. I’m your host Matt Landis joined by expert football handicappers Las Vegas Cris on your left and Scott Kellen on your right. If you’re watching us on YouTube, today we’re keeping the division previews rolling with a focus on the AFC North. And right off the top guys, you might be noticing a different background for me this time around with the brick wall behind me. I’m coming to you today from Jersey City, where I’ll be attending the sports betting networking event Bet Bash hosted by professional better Spanky, and I thought it might be good right off the top just to get a quick take from each of you on the value of networking in your own careers as betters?

Las Vegas Cris:

Well I think it’s one of the most important things that you can do is building relationships within the industry, and improving your information sharing. It might just be number one, it’s very important because everybody has a pulse on something different in whatever your interest is. Or if it’s not your interest, at least they have a pulse for you. So, I spend half my day reaching out to various people on various topics and just trying to learn this and learn that. Some people come to me, obviously for NFL, and I go to other people for other sports that I’m not as good as they are in. So, I think it’s absolutely crucial whenever you have an opportunity to meet people, or network, or reach out to people, take advantage of it.

AFC North Preview NFL Odds, Best Bets and 2021 NFL Predictions
AFC North Preview NFL Odds, Best Bets and 2021 NFL Predictions

Matt Landis:

Yeah. Scott, is it a similar dynamic from your experience?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, 100% Matt. And I’m always, first of all you just try to network with … the old axiom is, surround yourself in life with people who are as good or better than you, right? And it’s no different here from a betting perspective, find sharps who are as good or better than you. And for me I would take it even to another level, first of all, any sharp is good for you. But if I can find someone who maybe does things a little bit different than I do it too. This show, above and beyond everything we do, I like just being on the show every week with Cris, because Cris just looks at things slightly different. Shows I’ve done in the past with other individuals, they look at things just slightly … and I welcome that all day and night.

Scott Kellen:

Because, if I like one side and they like the opposite side, and they’re looking at this differently, I’ve got to take a hard look at what I’m doing and see if I can incorporate some of that into my handicapping, because they’re going to be right an awful lot and more times than they’re wrong, and that’s all really, really valuable. So, I’m looking for any sharp but especially if they are ones that do things a little bit differently, I feel like I can learn even that much more from those.

Las Vegas Cris:

And when you say that it reminds me, in the preview video, how you mentioned it’s important to not only learn … you need to learn as much as you can about other people’s processes, because they might die on you and you won’t know how to do it yourself.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. I mean, those kinds of people are of no worth to you other than that immediate pick they give you if you can’t learn something from them. And ultimately, that just helps you better your process as well so, 100%.

Matt Landis:

Yeah and I think that aligns perfectly with the mission of this show. Again, we will talk about picks and we’ll have a good time doing it, but really trying to bolster the process so that everybody watching and listening to this can take that knowledge with them throughout the rest of their betting lives. And on that note, we’ll get ready to dive in to our comprehensive preview on the AFC North here at BetUS where the game begins. But before we kick things off, I’ve got something to tell you. Make sure to sign up today at BetUS using the promo code NFL 2021 to claim your 125% signup bonus that’s exclusive for sports betting, good up to $2,500. To take advantage of the offer and get information on the terms and conditions, go ahead and check out the link below this video.

Matt Landis:

And while you’re at it, you can subscribe to the BetUS YouTube channel and you know the drill from there, hit the notification bell so you don’t … any of the exclusive content we’ll be posting, and if you enjoy this video, go ahead and give us a thumbs up. All right guys, I think that makes this a good time to get the ball rolling with the AFC North. Kicking it off in alphabetical order with the Baltimore Ravens, let’s take a look at their odds for the season. And I think we can talk about each of these because they’re bonafide contenders to go all the way to win the Super Bowl. They’re currently available at BetUS at 16 to one, plus 850 to win the AFC Championship, plus 125 to win the North, and regular season wins sitting on 11 slightly juice to the under, and Cris let’s go to you first here.

Matt Landis:

We know Lamar Jackson is electric on the ground, but will the passing game keep the Ravens offense in check this season?

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, I’m really interested to see how Lamar does. He had one of the most incredible seasons ever in 2019, and people are a little disappointed because, he had the 1,300, almost 1,300 yards rushing, or maybe it was over, in 2019, and he had 200 fewer this year. And but he was still 25 touchdowns, nine interceptions, acceptable. What people might not remember, or may not have even noticed, they intentionally, last year, tried to make him into a pocket passer, they want this guy to be around. So they started off real strong, and then they kind of hit a little bit of a lull. And they kind of struggled a little bit. I mean they had some close games, and they looked a little dicey, they didn’t look as impressive but they were trying something.

Las Vegas Cris:

And you have to commend them for not resting on their heels and for trying to do something different. And I’m not sure it was a success because they kind of went back the other way by the end of the season but, it’s a good sign that they’re trying different things and they’re fortunate enough, this team is just so loaded. I had them actually as the fourth best team overall last year in my math model. I had them number four on defense, and number 10 on offense. And I usually went betting them, I bet I was only four and four in their games last year. But it just goes to show you they’re rated high every year, and they do well during the regular season, but when it comes to playoffs, it’s a different story and they haven’t been really built for the playoffs.

Las Vegas Cris:

And that’s what they need to fix, because they steamroll through the regular season. And then they hit that brick wall in the playoffs and that’s going to be my major concern on what they do with that.

Matt Landis:

Yeah, and Scott, I think it’s no secret, the Ravens can be a bully, but how do you see them, not just punching down this year, but how do you foresee their battle when it comes to being able to punch, level or even up when it gets to those big playoff matches?

Scott Kellen:

Well, it’s a good question Matt. I mean Cris hit on it that they can they can steamroll over people and they are bullies, and I’ll give some examples of that in a second. But, until they can show that they can throw the ball, I was just looking, last year they averaged 6.3 yards a pass against teams that allowed 6.6 yards a pass. So they were below average throwing the ball and like Cris said, the good signs are they’re trying to get there, they’ve obviously added some people at the receiver position this year, maybe that helps them. But until Lamar can do that through the air, and you feel that they can do that consistently, it gets a little tough. But, they do bully teams. I mean let’s look at last year, they defeated the Texans by 17, Houston by 24 and 35, Dallas by 17, Jacksonville by 26, the Giants by 14.

Scott Kellen:

So when they’re playing these inferior teams they are beating them pretty bad. And I kind of look back, since Lamar Jackson has started for them, first of all they’re 32 and 11 straight up, which is phenomenal. But when they’re a home favorite of more than six, they’re 12 and two straight up, and as he road favorite, just in general, across the board, they are, I’m trying to find the numbers here. They are 12 and one straight up. So you combine home favorite of more than six, any type of road favorite, they’re 24 in three straight up, including the playoffs. But as a short home favorite of six or less, and is a road dog also in their straight up numbers become closer to 500. And that’s to Cris’s point that now you get to the playoffs, you’re playing better teams, and until they prove that they can overwhelm that competition, the better competition, they’re a bit of a 500 team against the good teams, and they mop up on the bad teams.

Scott Kellen:

But when you get to the playoffs, that’s where the true sign of your team comes out and that’s why they’ve struggled. They’re one and three in the playoffs straight up with Lamar at the quarterback position.

Las Vegas Cris:

Yeah, you know you mentioned how they outscored the opponent, they were plus 165 over their opponents, there’s only 16 games. They outscored their opponents by more than 10 points per game, it’s just obscene. They’re offense 5.5 yards per carry. I mean, jeez, I’d love to see Barry Sanders behind that line, 48% of their third downs they’re converting, and they’ve got a great defense, it’s only giving up 35% on third down. So, they were the number two defense in giving up points. So they’ve got both sides, and as Scott touched, they’ve added two wide receivers, so they’re going to have to expand the passing game. What’s that going to mean for Lamar? Is that going to mean he’s going to have more turnovers? Is that going to put less stress on the opposing defenses, and they won’t get ground down like they’ve been getting ground down each of the last several seasons, running it down their throats for 192 yards a game? That’s what I’m going to be keeping my eyes on it.

Matt Landis:

Yeah.

Scott Kellen:

And just a last thought on that, I’ve kind of compared Baltimore to anyone who’s old enough to remember the Nebraska Huskers with the triple option, right? Even late in the game they’re just running over teams because they’re so good and that’s what they do. So you look at like a Kansas City Chiefs who maybe, Mahomes is throwing to Kelce and Tyreek Hill and whatnot, they get to the last six minutes of the game and they’re up by 10 points, and they start running the ball. It’s not necessarily 100% of what they do and so they might have to punt the ball, or maybe they grind it out. But Baltimore at the end of the games against these inferior teams, they can break off a run for 45 yards because this is just what they do.

Scott Kellen:

It’s just the Nebraska Cornhuskers of the NFL, against those inferior teams. And that’s why, I’ve had pretty good success with them in some of these games because they’ve just been able to steamroll those teams, and then obviously the better teams it’s a different story. So, it’ll be interesting to see if they switch that game up a little bit and go more throwing the ball and whatnot. Does that change? What happens against the inferior teams? But that’s why I think they’ve had a lot of success against some of those teams.

Matt Landis:

Yeah, and I think when we look at their possible pivot to trying to be more pass game oriented, that could be a bigger challenge than they might have suspected. Because, in training camp it’s been really tough for their projected offensive line to get any reps in together. There have also been injuries across their wide receiving core, they’ve had five receivers injured since the start of training camp, and that includes first round pick Rashod Bateman, he’s likely to miss the start of the season, Hollywood Brown also dealing with some nagging hamstring injuries. So if the Ravens are trying to move in this direction, they’re already facing some resistance before the season’s even started. And guys, those injuries aren’t limited to the Baltimore offense.

Matt Landis:

They lost starting linebacker L.J. Fort to a torn ACL last week in the preseason game at Carolina. And for the defense, the defense came up earlier, Cris when you were breaking them down, they had a pretty easy go of it last season. They got Cincinnati early on in Burrow’s rookie campaign and then in the rematch it was Brandon Allen. They also got to face Gardner Minshew, Andy Dalton, Dwayne Haskins. So it might be more of an uphill battle than we’re used to seeing for the Ravens as stacked as they are with talent.

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, if you look at their schedule, they may be starting off a little banged up, but the easier part of their schedule is in the beginning. So, I see six and two, seven and one as a minimum. And the quirk in their schedule, they finish five out of their final seven games in the division, and they play three crucial games on the road in December. So it’s all going to boil down to the end of the season [inaudible 00:13:09].

Matt Landis:

Yeah, they have a stretch of two games in three weeks against the browns, and I believe Cleveland has its buy in between those games and the Ravens play the Steelers so that could be the pivotal stretch in this whole division, a lot of good stuff to get to. Scott, did you want to also take a look at Baltimore’s Pythagorean numbers from last year and see how that might inform things heading into 2021?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. Yeah, yeah, let’s take a look at that Matt. As far as their Pythagorean, so Baltimore last year we know they won 11 games, their Pythagorean kind of worked out to be about 11.8 wins, so they actually underachieved a little bit. And if I extrapolate that out over 17 games, because we’re playing another game this year, that actually translates to about 12.5 wins. So they exceeded that. And then the other thing I looked at, just kind of going over what I was talking about earlier, where they dominated straight up on as big home favorites, and also as road favorites, and then been more 500 against the other level of competition. We have lines out for all 17 games this year, now obviously those lines are going to change dramatically as the season progresses.

Scott Kellen:

But if you just use that as the barometer, that also gets them to about 12 wins. So I’m neutral on the Ravens in terms of just their over under season wins at 11. It’s hard to go over 11 wins but, you look at the math here, the 17 games put them a little bit over 12, 12.5 wins, and if we extrapolate out what the lines that they’ve been projected with in each game this year, gets them to about 12 wins, 12 and five for Baltimore is not out of reach here from that perspective. And their schedule is middle of the road at 14, as Cris said they’ve got some tough stretches there but, it’s a middle of the road schedule so, I think 11 or 12 wins is very achievable. I’ll stay neutral on just because I don’t like going over a super high number but, that’s what they look like from a Pythagorean Theorem standpoint.

Matt Landis:

Yeah, Cris to tie a bow on the Baltimore Ravens, I know we’ve talked about what’s going to be necessary on the offensive side of things for them to possibly take that next step. Is there anything more specific that you’re looking out for to determine and your eyes, if and when the Ravens will look Super Bowl ready?

Las Vegas Cris:

I have a feeling that they’re going to really be laser focused at this point because of their playoff failures. At some point, a team that’s good, just get sick of losing and not getting to that final goal. So I’m not sure how much we’re going to be able to read into the regular season. You would think that they might do what they did last year and try some different things so, and they’re going to have a schedule that’s going to allow them to do that. So, hopefully their health stays, I like Baltimore, I don’t know what it is, they’re a fun team to watch, they’re exciting, and they’re somewhat metrically predictable usually. So, I want them to do well, and I think we’re going to see them try different things. And it’s going to be hard to figure them out until the playoffs.

Matt Landis:

Yeah, I think you touched on the notion of, I often think of the crawl, walk, run metaphor. In the NBA they talk about teams, they need to first approach the door and then knock on it before then, maybe that third year they can pound it down. The Ravens might be primed for that next step, we’ll see. We need to see a lot of progress from the passing game, but there’s a lot to like about this team from the talent on the roster, to the way they run things. So I think a team we can transition to from Baltimore that still is probably more in the crawling, learning how to walk stage, that would be the Cincinnati Bengals. And we can take a look at their odds for the upcoming season. Probably don’t need to focus too much on the Super Bowl or AFC odds, a long shot even to win this division.

Matt Landis:

Again, it’s a stacked division so 16 to one is the number on the Bengals at BetUS. Regular season one total sitting at six to the half with a little juice to the over. And Scott, the big storyline around the Bengals, Joe burrow looked pretty impressive at times last year, but coming off that ACL injury, what are you expecting from him in the 2021 campaign?

Scott Kellen:

Well, we’ll see. I mean, in the games that he played, and whatever it was five, six, seven, eight games, I don’t remember how many games it was, they were pretty close in those games. Now they did get blown up by Baltimore, they got blown out by Pittsburgh so let’s just say they got blown up by really good teams. They played one close game against Cleveland, the other one was kind of close, but they back doored at the end to lose by five I think or something. So you could say that, in a way Cleveland kind of controlled that game so again, against a really good team maybe they didn’t perform as well. But against most those other teams that he played against, they were in most of those games. The problem for me is, and Burrow looks to be pretty decent, but they’re passing yards last year were below average, and I don’t know how much of that was really on Burrow, he’s a rookie quarterback I thought he played pretty well just given all that.

Scott Kellen:

But you look at their offensive line, they allow three sacks a game against teams that average like 2.39 sacks a game, so they were well below average. I don’t know how much of that’s changed this year on the offensive line so, and they were throwing the ball a lot last year against a … behind a really poor offensive line. So, yes, maybe he takes another step up because it’s a sophomore year but, that offensive line if it can’t get much better, he could still have a lot of trouble and they’ve got a pretty tough schedule this year as well that’s not going to do them any favors just besides being inside the division, but outside the division as well.

Matt Landis:

Yep. And they had the flashing sign, kind of as you touched on, to go ahead and draft Penei Sewell, and they obviously opted not to so we’ll see if that comes back to bite them this season. Cris what are you looking for out of Joe Burrow this season?

Las Vegas Cris:

Well he did face pretty weak defenses overall, I don’t know those exact numbers but he was 13 and five, 13 touchdowns only five picks, 65% is pretty impressive for a quarterback. I have really high hopes for this guy, I really like this guy. I was a big Cincinnati fan last year, I was five in one betting them last year. So, I didn’t like the fact that they drafted Chase but it does reunite that combo. There has to be some sort of familiarity that’s going to work. I would have protected my quarterback more and really put a quality offensive lineman there instead. But, they did what they did and in this league offense is beating defense more often than not. And we see that too often nowadays, it used to be the other way around.

Las Vegas Cris:

To go with Chase, they’ve got Boyd and Higgins two quality wide receivers, you’ve got a great quarterback, they’re going to score points this year. But as Scott referenced, they were sacked 48 times last year, they only sacked the opponent 17 times, something’s got to give there, and the defense was just atrocious. They were out gained by 700 yards, they gave up over five yards a carry, the teams just ran all over them. And they really, they added some depth around the team but, they still got big holes. But, if they can just stay healthy, they’re going to be okay. People forget Mixon was a key part of that team, he didn’t play so he’s back. They are pretty good in the skill position sets, it’s all the little things that you don’t see that they don’t have that’s going to cause them problems.

Las Vegas Cris:

So that’s my concern, they need a better tight end, better offensive line. Somehow they were number six in the league in pass defense, I don’t understand it because they were at the bottom on run defense. So, everything but their pass defense was awful. So, I’m up and down with them, I really am. Their schedule’s the fifth hardest in the league and they’ve got unbelievable scheduling quirks. They play three home games against two bad teams, the Jets in Detroit, and they get Baltimore home in that. And then they have three road games, but the comedy of that is, all three road teams they play are off of back to backs. And not only are they off back to backs, they’re off back to back Sunday nights. And they don’t play any teams off of a by. So tighter schedule, but scheduling quirks are in there.

Matt Landis:

Yeah, that’s something that kept me off of the idea on the Bengals. One of the factors that I came across was that, with their rest edge, no opponents off of by that can loom large. But at the same time, Scott, their last seven games are looking really tough and that could be make or break time for Zac Taylor, assuming he makes it to that stage, because this is year three for him and he’s been pretty predictable. His play calling may be writing Sean McVay’s co-tails a little bit. But when you look at how the arc of the season might play out from a scheduling standpoint for the Bengals, what are you expecting?

Scott Kellen:

Well, you hit on it Matt. I’m just looking at their schedule here, the last seven games Pittsburgh, Chargers, San Francisco, Denver, which we don’t know what Denver is going to do but, I think is pretty predictable they’re going to have a very good defense, which it cause some problems, and a great secondary. Baltimore, Kansas City and Cleveland. That’s a pretty tough way to end the season, and they got Green Bay in there, Baltimore again, Cleveland again, Pittsburgh again I mean, there’s nothing easy here. Their over under number is what? 6.5? So when you start looking at those games and you try to find easy wins, it’s tough to find a whole bunch of easy wins, much less wins at all.

Las Vegas Cris:

But they have an outside shot of starting off strong.

Scott Kellen:

Yes.

Las Vegas Cris:

Like you said, they may not win in any of those final eight or nine games, but it’s not impossible that they could start off four and O, five and one. So it’s just a matter if they stay healthy. They actually have, if they stay healthy, they have enough, they just don’t have any room for error at this point. And they are a sneaky team. Trust me, they are sneaky team. They’re going to sneak up on you, they have just enough to be dangerous and they can catch teams flat footed. So, if Pittsburgh … they can beat Minnesota at home, they can beat Chicago, if Pittsburgh has the problems that some people say they’re going to have, they can be Pittsburgh. Jacksonville, that’s their first four. They could be three in one, four in O in that situation. And when when you get people building up confidence, crazy things happen.

Matt Landis:

Yeah, Cris, you’ve talked about thinking of winning as being contagious and there’s some valid reasons that you’ve laid out for that. But I’m curious as to, maybe the juxtaposition between their early season schedule, maybe a smooth on ramp for the Bengals, versus a lot of what we’re hearing out of training camp so far. You mentioned staying healthy, very little margin for error there. It seems like Burrow is not progressing as well as they’d hoped coming off that ACL tear. And Ja’Marr Chase not a health issue but drops can be fickle. But just in generally, really not showing out like they thought he might be right out of the gates with the number five overall pick. So, yes, they have a pretty clear path to some early season wins, but it’s also been a bumpy ride for some players. They’re expecting a lot of production out of when we go off of the training camp report so far, so how do you kind of reconcile the easy schedule early on versus what we’re hearing out of their training camp?

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, you brought up a very good point I forgot about, the news was that they were scared. Because when Joe came in, there was something wrong. He just didn’t have it. They said last year he had the swagger and it just was not there at the start of training camp. But, I believe that that has kind of changed as far as my understanding has gone and he’s kind of settled in a little bit. Maybe you guys have heard a better update than I have. But if he doesn’t have that swagger, and the team knows that, well geez, kiss this season goodbye, they’re going to be fighting a losing battle, they need this guy at the top of his game.

Matt Landis:

Yeah, and Scott I think if we look at the Pythagorean numbers, you also separated out what it looked like with Burrow, so how are you projecting that over the course of a 17 games schedule this season?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. So, they win four games last year, their true Pythagorean number was 5.2 so they actually underachieved a little bit, which is good. But then if we just look at the games Burrow played in that actually translates to in a 17 games, schedule about 6.2. Which funny enough, they’re over under number 6.5, kind of lands them right there, it’s probably a pretty good number. We can see with the projected lines of all 17 weeks this year, that projects them out to about 6.3. So, 6.5 is about right, I’m pretty neutral on them in regards to that. And Cris pointed out, they can go six in two early on, I think, with that schedule, which I think is 100% accurate. But we are talking about a not great team so you’re asking a not great team to beat six other maybe average to below average teams, and not great teams typically don’t do that.

Scott Kellen:

I mean look, if they come out of the gate six and two, then they’re better than, it’s clearly better than what they were last year, and they’re going to win some more games beyond that obviously because, they’ve shown the capability to do that. But they’re probably not going six and two, which now puts that 6.5 over under season win number probably right where it really needs to be, quite frankly.

Matt Landis:

Yeah, well as we wrap things up with the Bengals, I think I’m going to agree with Cris on a bit of a lean to the under here. I get that yo-yo opinion mentality, I mean there’s a lot with the, not as promising as hoped reports on Joe Burrow’s health, what we’ve seen out of Chase, the offensive line. At the same time the Bengals could be due for a lot of positive regression. Scott building on what you mentioned, of course their injury luck last year was really rough and some insight I heard from pain insider was also their fumble luck was really poor, their field goal luck was pretty terrible, one possession games in the last two years, two and 14. So, there’s still plenty of upward mobility for the Bengals and just as a fan, you’d like to see them stay healthy and give it their best effort. But a lot of reasons maybe to lean under, not quite enough to pull the trigger.

Matt Landis:

I think that does it for Cincinnati so we can move on to more of a juggernaut, another one of the powerhouses now in the AFC North, and take a look at the Cleveland Browns. They really took a big step forward last year, I think again, this warrants looking at their numbers all the way to the top winning the Super Bowl. 16 to one, plus 750 to win the AFC, plus 135 to win the North. Regular season win total sitting at 10.5 with a little bit of juice to the over. And Cris, as I just touched on, it was a big leap forward for the Browns last year, could they be primed for another step forward this year or what’s your read on them at this stage?

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, I want to ask you guys, how good do you think they were last year? Where would each of you have ranked them in the top 15? Top 10? Top five? Where would you guys put them?

Scott Kellen:

I’d have to go back and look Cris, I don’t remember exactly. But I would probably, I’m just thinking off the top of my head, five, six, seven, maybe eight somewhere in that neighborhood. They were a pretty decent team, I thought, I would have them definitely inside the top 10.

Matt Landis:

Yeah same here. Yeah just, I think five, six came to mind, enough to take the plus 10 against the Chiefs in the divisional round, for sure.

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, and I bring it up just because I’m on my own island here. So, I took a fair amount of grief last year. And just a little bit of background, I generally come up with a metric model each week of a hell of a lot of categories and a lot of data. And that’s my starting point to come up with which side I’m going to be leaning on. And it was remarkable because everybody was on the Cleveland Browns bandwagon last year and I’m looking at my numbers and I’m like, I’m just not seeing it. And I actually did bet against the Cleveland Browns 11 times last year. I have them rated the 18th best team last year. So, that’s pretty low. And before you guys make fun of me, I was 68% on NFL sides last year, so I’m not some imbecile, okay?

Las Vegas Cris:

Now I won’t be 68% this year but, I’m telling you I know what I’m talking about. I’m not some crackpot. And, I had a winning record doing it and the way I measure team success, they were pretty darn average. They had all the glamor stats, when I was debating it with people, they’re way up here in rushing, and they’re way up here in passing, and they’re way up here in this and that. And like, well, yeah, but every other category they’re down at the bottom. Cleveland was in the 20s when people were arguing that they were like a top tier team, and I’m like no way. Now to their credit, they finished really well. They impressed me and I root for money, I don’t root against teams.

Las Vegas Cris:

I was following what the statistics were telling me and we talked about Kansas City, at what point do you become the team that the statistics say you are? So, with Cleveland, they were overrated for much of the season, they came out on strong and they gained a lot of respect for me. But as far as what they did last year, I had them as an average team. Actually 18 is like not even the top half.

Matt Landis:

Yeah, and I’ll push back on this a bit. I mean you’re already holding yourself accountable so I guess pushing back might be the wrong term. But maybe exploring what might have been missing there. And I’m in no position to critique your model or your record, by any stretch, but I know the offensive numbers can be taken with a grain of salt. I mean you mentioned their passing numbers looked good, and that’s with the knowledge we need to have the context, they had a brutal stretch of win games that just torpedoed their offense, and then they had no receivers when they took on the Jets and they ended up losing that game. I also think from a coaching standpoint, it’s kind of a 180 from what we were just talking about with the Bengals and Zac Taylor, Kevin Stefanski did a great job coaching to Baker Mayfield’s strengths, using a lot of 12 personnel, that’s two tight ends.

Matt Landis:

So, heavy sets, a lot of play action, to really make the most out of his quarterback. So Cris, do you think, between the win games, no receivers against the Jets, or maybe something that your model didn’t catch on to about just how much Stefanski was maximizing things, could that be part of what was missing last year for the Browns, or where do you look at them going into 2021? Because certainly it’s got to be at least above average.

Las Vegas Cris:

Well, yeah. They certainly, as I said, it’s a starting point. So, would I rate them the 18th best team? No, I would definitely boost them up. But it just goes to show, you can’t always believe your lying eyes. So that’s why I think one of the hardest things to do is to win at NFL betting because, you believe your lying eyes. They were very fortunate in one score games, they were seven and two. Field goal games, four and 0. We know how that reverses itself and I think Scott will … Scott what did you have them on Pythagorean?

Scott Kellen:

With the Pythagorean I had them at 8.2 wins. And if we take out those win games, and the game where Cris was playing receiver for them at the Jets, I think I had them at 8.6. So they still vastly over achieved, if you will. And to your point on that, Cris, I’m just looking at their numbers here, I like to look at how do teams perform versus the opponents they played. They were at 5.8 yards of play against teams that gave up 5.6. They allowed 5.5 against teams that average 5.4. So they were slightly below average on defense and slightly above average on offense. Now, again, that has the win games in there so, but that does put them fairly average. We look here, we can see they won 11 games last year, and we see the Pythagorean on just a normal schedule 7.7, again, if we make that the 17 games schedule, it’s 8.2 wins.

Scott Kellen:

If I take out those win games, like I said earlier, we’re up to about 8.6. And their difference is always … so they overachieved by about 3.3 and that’s pretty significant. And they were seven and two in close games. So they won five more games, than they lost in the close games, but they have like the 31st, so it’s the second to easiest, or easiest schedule, however you want to look at it, depending on which metric you use, in the league this year. So, they have a very easy schedule. The other thing I’ll point out here, I lean under on them for some of the things you said Cris, and just because they they so overachieved, but they’ve added some pieces on defense to really, hopefully improve that defense, bringing a couple guys over from the Rams.

Scott Kellen:

I’m always skeptic to see how those guys come to a new team and perform. Were they really good with their old team because they were part of a a greater sum of players? Or are they truly good, and they’re going to display that when they get to Cleveland as well? But the deepens does figure to possibly improve as well, you got the easy schedule. But here’s the other thing, I pointed this out with Miami, they won five more games last year than they they won the previous year. And going back to ’84, we’ve seen 99 teams do this, and only 24 of those 99 teams have won as many or more games the following year. Now if they win 11 games this year, they’re going to go over their season win number. But, at some point that’s not by mistake, teams sometimes take too big of a jump, and they come back to earth a little bit the next year.

Scott Kellen:

Obviously we’ve got the added game that they’re going to be playing this year, that plays in all this as well. But just because of that, and historically, that is just not going well for teams, I lean under, but I also recognize they’ve, in theory, improved this team especially on defense, and the schedule is very easy as well.

Matt Landis:

Yeah and Scott I’d like to follow up with you when you mentioned their defense, we can build on this a bit because it’s been interesting. All the metrics you outlined a lot of the more analytics savvy betters that I respect, seem to be pretty quick to realize that the Browns would fit the mold of a team that should be bet on to regress, and yet they’re getting a lot of love as we approach this season, and maybe it has to do with that defense. You touched on those two key pieces they added from the Rams elite secondary last year, Troy Hill and John Johnson. They also invested in the first round on defensive back Greg Newsome, they had some bad injury luck last year in the secondary, a healthy Denzel Ward could be huge this season if they can get that.

Matt Landis:

And of course, a better secondary would mean they can play more man coverage, maybe unleash their front seven, and with Jadeveon Clowney joining Myles Garrett, that could be all kinds of havoc that the Browns defense could bring to opposing offenses. At the same time you touched on that trade off, if we’re projecting nine new starters, it almost doesn’t matter how much talent there is, there’s a lot of things for them to figure out. So where do you think the defensive additions, and maybe anything else that typically would keep the market betting against a team like Cleveland coming off of last year, what do you think is causing them to get so much sustained love across the marketplace?

Scott Kellen:

Well I think it’s all those things you just said Matt, and also you kind of mentioned it as well that Stefanski I think is a very good coach. And to your point, I don’t know how good Baker Mayfield is, but Stefanski has got him set up to succeed. And they run an offense that’s predicated a lot of play action, which again, gets your players open and a guy like Baker Mayfield can thrive if he really stays within the structure of the offense. And that potentially is something you can duplicate again this year. So, you had a really … and it’s just night and day what Stefanski did with that team versus previous years. So, you add that in there as well, it’s very easy to be optimistic on them. Here’s the other thing that’s kind of crazy, I don’t know how great Odell Beckham is for this team, and he missed part of the year last year, and they still played pretty well.

Scott Kellen:

This guy’s a little bit of a drama queen, and in some ways I think they’re almost better off when he’s not playing, we’ll see what happens. He’s unquestionably a very good talent on that team but, they didn’t miss a beat with him for the most part last year and so, that’s just another element we’ll see how that plays out for the year as well.

Las Vegas Cris:

I was doing my analysis of Cleveland, I completely forgot he was on the team. I’m like, oh my God.

Scott Kellen:

I know.

Las Vegas Cris:

Stefanski’s done wonders with that team, one of the keys was passing on early downs and getting them in an advantageous spots on second and third down if they hit their down. So the key with Baker is, he did really well last year. He’s 26 touchdowns on the eight interceptions which is, much better than the year before, and he was a top 10 quarterback. But, he faced no adversity. I want to see what this guy does. When he was under pressure, his metrics were bottom 10. So as long as he gets to be comfy, cozy, he’s okay. And when he’s under pressure, he’s below average so he’s bottom of the run. When I look at this team, where is the weakness? I mean, they are absolutely stacked. Not only are they stacked, they had an A draft. They are deep, they can absorb injuries, and what is going to boil down to them is what’s up here, and where their head is.

Las Vegas Cris:

There’s going to be some pressure on them this year, more so than last year, there’s high expectations of them. When I went down that schedule, where are they going to get, five, six losses? I mean, with what they can do, they’ve got the receivers, they’ve got the offensive line, the defensive line, they’ve got the quarterback, they’ve got the runner, the [inaudible 00:40:53]. I mean where’s the weakness? It’s in special teams but, they can improve that. Pittsburgh’s on its way down, Baltimore’s at least about the same, there’s room for a lot of wins there. But you can’t ignore the fact what my math model says, what the Pythagorean says, it’s the same thing, they overplayed what they … They had more wins than they deserved last year somehow. They didn’t deserve those wins, technically.

Las Vegas Cris:

But everybody is down on the Browns, somehow I’m up on the Browns. So as much as I tell you that I had them metrically below, at the bottom, I look at that team in my line, I say that they’re going to do fine. So we’re going to just have to see, I’m optimistic about them. I don’t know where they lose the games unless they just self destruct, and I think Stefanski’s too good of a coach to let them.

Scott Kellen:

I agree with you, Cris, it’s such an easy schedule like you said, it’s very hard, and that’s why I’m going just to lean, just because you can see the regression possibly happening, but to your point, where’s it going to happen? And the only thing I guess I’d add there though is, when you get the regression from some of these teams in these situations, most of time you’re not going to be able to predict it. Because you got a Jason Garrett head coach [inaudible 00:42:22] Anthony Lynn, okay you can see some of that possibly coming. But you don’t see it in a lot of other teams, it’s something you can’t predict. Baker Mayfield gets hurt, all of a sudden he starts throwing a lot more interceptions. They have a rash of injuries somewhere else. It’s going to be things like that that will ultimately derail them. Now do you want to bet on that happening? Probably not, you can’t predict that stuff happening.

Scott Kellen:

But that’s where these teams that have succeeded in the recent years, that’s where they ultimately, I think, end up regressing, it’s just something that’s … You looked at the 49ers, they completely regressed last year, not because they weren’t good, they just had a rash of injuries and all that stuff that came along with that.

Matt Landis:

Yeah, it sounds like the Browns could be one of those teams. Maybe they’re even better on the field with their true talent than they were last year but the record might be roughly the same, or maybe even come back a bit just because of that regression. Cris, one thing I wanted to follow up on with you before we move on to the Steelers and wrap up the AFC North will be, you mentioned the Browns having an A draft grade. And the more I’ve come to study this, the more I’ve come to believe that, you can’t really great a draft with too much conviction until three or four years down the road, but I’ve heard you bring this up with a few teams, and I do understand that when a team like Cincinnati drafts a wide receiver instead of the offensive line they desperately need who’s there for the taking, it’s reasonable to have some thoughts on that.

Matt Landis:

So for context, when you mention a team having an A draft grader, some other teams you’ve said previous didn’t draft so well, what do you mean by that before we’ve even seen any of these guys take the field in a regular season game?

Las Vegas Cris:

I have a friend that writes up each of these teams before they go into the draft, what their needs are, and analyzes what happens afterward. And did they feel the needs that they needed? I can’t rely on just one opinion of course, but there’s a draft grade, NFL composite draft grade of 18 people that evaluate that. So, the 18 national sources had them as the second best draft with a solid A. So, that’s how to come up with it. I’m-

Matt Landis:

Cool.

Las Vegas Cris:

Personally, the analyzing the draft is not my cup of tea. If you’re paying attention at the beginning of this video about networking, this is an example of networking where I’m good in NFL, but I’m not good in this subgroup. And if I get some help from someplace, I’m more than happy to not be stubborn, I’m ready to ask for help.

Matt Landis:

Yeah, I love it. I love bringing this full circle, and we can bring the AFC North full circle in a sense moving on to the Pittsburgh Steelers. And we can take a look at their odds for the season. They obviously had a great regular season record last year due in large part to that 11 and O start. In 2021 we’re looking at their odds of repeating, winning the AFC North, excuse me, at plus 375. Regular season wins over under 8.5, the under is at minus 125 so we’re seeing some juice telling us the Steelers might not have a winning season, or at least might have their first losing season for the first time in a long time. And Scott, I think a lot of that could have to do with their quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, obviously it’s been a Hall of Fame caliber career. But what do you think in terms of Big Ben possibly running on empty at this stage?

Scott Kellen:

Oh boy Matt, that’s a good question. Now he did look pretty good against the Detroit Lions the other night in a preseason game, which means absolutely nothing. So, I get that right. But it was kind of good to see him looking decent. On the tight end they got from Penn State looks like he could really help Big Ben as well. But, to your point, they win 12 games last year and they average 5.1 yards of play against a collection of teams that allow 5.6 yards of play, so they were well below average on offense. And that offensive line is a complete new makeshift this year, so we’ll see what happens there. I am of the belief that good quarterbacks can make a poor, or average offensive line seem a little bit better. The Aaron Rodgers. the Mahomes, those guys can make a bad offensive line look okay. But also we saw Mahomes in the Super Bowl with a banged up offensive line that wasn’t meant to be against Tampa Bay so, at the same point you still have to have some quality players there.

Scott Kellen:

So, I don’t know, we’ll see. I think they’re going to … obviously they drafted the running back in the draft and that, I think they want to run the ball more, maybe set up some play action, maybe just put big Ben in better positions to throw the ball as well, and obviously just throw the ball less, which is probably going to be helpful. So if they can do all that, possibly he can scratch out another good year for him but, man, they were below average last year, and that offensive line is a huge question mark. So, to me it’s a huge question … and they have a very tough schedule which I know we’ll probably get into in a minute but, I got to see it. Because we did not see it last year and they didn’t finish the year well last year.

Scott Kellen:

They lost five of the last six games, one game they tanked at and week 17 against Cleveland but, they didn’t finish strong either so, that makes it pretty difficult to believe that they’re going to just snap right back and win a whole bunch of games this year.

Matt Landis:

Yeah I’m picking up on a common thread as we go through this division now. The Steelers and the Bengals, the Bengals want to protect the quarterback, obviously it helps to get a good receiver for the passing game. The Steelers want to run the ball more so they invest in first round pick and a good running back. It seems to make sense but, both for good pass protection and for good run blocking it also helps to have a good offensive line. So, some eyebrows raised about how both of those teams approach their first rounds of the draft. And Cris, as far as the Steelers not bolstering their offensive line too much this off season, how do you think that might affect Ben Roethlisberger as we approach 2021 kickoff?

Las Vegas Cris:

I want to get back to Scott mentioning he did well against the Lions in preseason. The Lions set their starters-

Scott Kellen:

You know that was a joke by the way, right?

Las Vegas Cris:

I know but I had … The Lions set their starters other than the secondary. So, those are the Lion starters. So, you know what? I love this whole division, Pittsburgh was my favorite team to bet on in this division. I bet 103 sides last year. 35 of those sides came from this division. So, I was seven and three with Pittsburgh, I loved them, they started off 11 and O. I realized that they had a soft schedule and that was part of it, and as Scott said they finished poorly. But gee, did they have some monster stats. They were not only number one in sacks, they were number one in not being sacked, think about that. I mean the two extremes. They were plus nine in turnovers, they were plus 289 in penalties, and I couldn’t believe this, 56.7% pass defense.

Las Vegas Cris:

You’ve got teams that are hitting 79, I think the Lions were over … I think there were two teams at 70, think about that. What a monster difference. Getting back to Ben though, Ben, why did you come back? Seriously. He’s coming back to the hardest schedule in the league, he has … I believe they lost four offensive linemen that they’ve had to replace. Why did you come back? That’s what I can’t figure it out. And, so it kind of nags me into thinking, he can’t be that stupid, he’s not coming back unless he believes that there’s enough there that the walls aren’t going to come tumbling down. I have to believe it. I have to believe it. You know Scott touched, they’ve got no running game.

Las Vegas Cris:

3.6 yards per carry, are you kidding me? Cincinnati gives up 5.1, he had nobody to throw the ball to last year, they lead the league. Number one in the league on dropped balls, why is this guy coming back? There has to be a reason. I don’t have anything else to say about this team other than that. They were a solid, solid team, we know that they got a little bit weaker on defense, they lost a couple of people, but they’re still strong enough there and it’s going to be a matter of this offensive line and them getting a running game. And unfortunately, the Lions held them to their same league average of last year, 3.6 yards per carry, if I’m not mistaken last week.

Matt Landis:

The mighty Detroit Lions getting a lot of play in this episode, and they’ll get even more on Friday when we do the NFC North. But keeping it with the Steelers here, Cris I’m going to need to probably pick your brain before I bet any games involving them. Because the two I remember last year, betting on Baltimore against the Steelers, I believe it was their first matchup of the season and that didn’t pan out. And then when I bet on Pittsburgh in that game in Buffalo, it just felt like nobody wanted to catch the ball. So, I can recall being O and two on games involving Pittsburgh last year, maybe I can consult with you and that’ll help break the ship. But Scott, I wanted to maybe bridge the gap to looking at their Pythagorean numbers, because one thing that Cris mentioned was the defense, obviously, a lot to love about that front seven and the secondary, some departures, but Minkah Fitzpatrick still an excellent player.

Matt Landis:

We do know that defense tends to regress more than offense year over year, and there could be other forms of regression coming through this year with this season. When we look at these numbers.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. so they went to all games last year like we said, they’re Pythagorean 10.6, when we extrapolate that out over 17 games, 11.3. So they slightly over achieved last year. Nothing great but a little bit of overachievement. But to your point too Matt, seven and two in close games, that’s probably going to regress here as well. If they went four and three then they’re only winning 10 games, if they go three and four, they’re winning nine games, last year. So, yeah, they were very fortunate in some of those games last year, as well. And then we look at the schedule they’re, again, depending on how you measure it, but they’ve got the second toughest schedule, that just makes it that much more difficult as well.

Scott Kellen:

So, I’m neutral on them, you know, Tomlin’s never finished below 500, which is amazing. That doesn’t mean he can’t do that this year though, and he’s probably not going to finish at 500 this year, unless they tie in a game with the 17 games. And again, it doesn’t mean that he can’t go eight and nine or seven and 10 this year, that really, those previous seasons have nothing to do with this year. Other than, I do think he’s a good leader for that for the most part but, they’ve got it up against them a little bit because Baltimore and Cleveland are very good, and if Cincinnati shows any improvement at all, that’s just going to make it that much tougher within the division alone for them as well.

Matt Landis:

Yeah. To your point Tomlin hasn’t had a losing season, and I will add that they have gone eight and eight, three times under Tomlin, that could easily translate to one or two losing seasons with this 17 game schedule. So to your point, the fact that they haven’t gone below 500 under Tomlin doesn’t mean it’s a bulletproof angle. I do think it means they’ve done a lot for a long time as an organization, there’s a lot to respect there. But, boy the offensive line again, last year it wasn’t great, this year it might be even worse and they might be hard pressed to have as much turnover luck to offset some of those poor numbers.

Scott Kellen:

Yeah, and to Cris’s point, they allowed, I think it was 0.88 sacks, so less than one sack a game, which is amazing. They threw the ball a ton, didn’t run the ball well, were below average just on offense, from the line of scrimmage and from a yards per play standpoint, but just didn’t allow sacks. Now that’s, a lot of Ben getting rid of the ball quickly, and again, that’s where a good structured offense, a good veteran quarterback can really protect that a lot. But, we just need to see what this new offensive line translates to because, for a long time, they’ve had a very good offensive line, and all of a sudden now we don’t know what we’re going to get and that could have some negative aspects to it as well.

Matt Landis:

Yeah. And Scott I’d like to follow up with you about, you mentioned Big Ben, and knowing kind of how to maneuver around this aspect, offensive line. Obviously, he’s been at this for a long time so he can figure out a lot for himself. But one thing it seems like the Steelers might be trying to implement on offense more so than in years past would be using pre snap motion and more play action. That’s been a storyline throughout their training camp, do you think that could possibly be a saving grace to give them a more optimal new age approach on how to run the NFL offense in 2021? Or do you think at this stage of Ben’s career tat might be a pretty tough adjustment?

Scott Kellen:

No I think, I think he could adjust to it. He’s a veteran, he’s savvy, and ultimately if he buys into it, and he should, because in theory that should make them even more successful, he should be buying into that and doing that. And, again, especially this offensive line isn’t great, if they can get play action working, that’s going to be to his benefit. So, I don’t think he’ll have any problem with that, he’s a pretty smart guy and if it ultimately, again, if he believes that it’s going to make him better as a whole, I think he’ll buy into it, and he’s been around long enough that I think he can adjust to it as well.

Matt Landis:

Sounds good. Well a lot of good food for thought with the Steelers, really all four teams in this division, this could be one of the most fascinating ones to watch. Another strong division following up on the NFC West preview in our last episode at the end of last week. I think to wrap this one up, we can take a look at the division odds for the AFC North. Some pretty intense company up at the top there when we look at the Ravens, plus 125, the Browns right on their heels at plus 135. Maybe not time to rule out the Steelers just yet, but they are at plus 375, and then the Bengals are 16 to one long shot. So a lot of upward mobility for Cincinnati, but this probably isn’t going to be their year in this good of a division.

Matt Landis:

And as we wrap things up now, I think we can touch on one bet as well as a couple of leans down the homestretch. And I’ll go ahead and lean things off because I’m the one with a bet here, and that will be taking the Steelers to go under 8.5 regular season wins, currently priced at minus 125 at BetUS. I make that good to minus 130, so still a touch of value left. And Scott, this came up when you were breaking down the team. One of the biggest arguments against my bet would be that, it’s going to take an outlier to cash the ticket because the Steelers haven’t had a losing record since 2003, and my first point would be that that’s true, but they have had for eight and eight seasons so easily a couple of losing seasons potentially if we were on that 17 game schedule.

Matt Landis:

And also, I can’t remember the last time the Steelers had this much competition within their division, and this many holes and question marks on their own roster. If we look at the division, the Browns and Ravens are bonafide Super Bowl contenders, the Bengals, again we talked about some reasons they might not take that step forward this year but they really only have minimal downward mobility, it could pretty much only go up for them the way we’ve seen them in recent years. So the AFC North not cutting the Steelers any breaks. And when it comes to their roster, I’m reminded of a conversation I recently had with NFL handicapper Fabian Sommer, and on both sides of the ball there are some red flags.

Matt Landis:

We talked about Big Ben maybe being a shadow of his former self, and they might have had the worst offensive line in the league before they released David DeCastro, so that’s definitely something to watch early in 2021. And on the other side of the ball, again, love that front seven, I do think the defense will be good again, but there have been some stealth departures from the secondary so it could be Minkah Fitzpatrick working with little else. Overall at minus 125 on under 8.5 wins for the Steelers, we’re looking at a breakeven probability of 55.6%. And I know that this would represent a far fall from the 11 and O start this Steeler got off to last year, but I do think it’s more likely than not that we see a losing year for the first time in a long time in Pittsburgh in 2021.

Scott Kellen:

Matt I would just throw in, they’ve got 12 games against teams projected to win 8.5 games or more so, just besides the division itself, this is not going to be a cup of cake, easy move schedule for them. They’re going to struggle against these good teams potentially.

Las Vegas Cris:

You know I forgot to bring up, I didn’t verify this but, 50%, yeah, 50% of their games, more than 50% of their games are against teams that finished 11 and five or better last year. So that’s an odd thing. But, Pittsburgh wasn’t supposed to do much last year, am I wrong?

Matt Landis:

Absolutely not. I mean this is the kind of bet to your point, Cris, I’m looking at a 55.6% breakeven, and I would price it around 60%. So I fully understand that 40% of the time, if not maybe a touch more, this could lose, that’s fully on the table. When we’re doing this, there’s never a big enough sample size and anyone that could easily go down in flames. But if we’re trying to accumulate small edges over time, that’s more the angle behind this bet. I feel good about the handicap, but by no means does that guarantee anything.

Las Vegas Cris:

Pittsburgh reminds me of Indianapolis where, they get underestimated. And I’m not a Pittsburgh Steeler fan actually, for some reason, because I was always a Cowboys fan back in the day. But, they just remind me of Indianapolis where, you just underestimate them, and they just show up. They show up. And again I bring back, Ben’s back, I think people are … I’m going to get back to what we said in the preview video, have an open mind that this is possible and don’t be surprised when it happens. And I think everybody seems to, like they’re going to be surprised if Pittsburgh does well, even though they’ve got a lot of good attributes. So, I don’t know why everybody’s so down on Pittsburgh with their track record but, it’s possible that they can come back with another good year.

Las Vegas Cris:

I mean they faded in the end with injuries and it wasn’t just that they fell apart, they had other factors. And, it’s not going to surprise me if Pittsburgh has another good year, it really won’t. But it’s not going to surprise me if they go down in flames either. So, that’s the point of these discussions, is not to tell you what’s going to happen, it’s to make you think about what could happen either direction. At least that’s my point.

Matt Landis:

Yeah, I love that context. And in fact, I don’t know maybe we should place a friendly wager, say, a bottle of Jim Beam on the Steelers over under. But yeah, I like the idea of not being surprised either way, again, I think I’ve got an edge of a few percentage points here, this is not something to get overextended on. For me it’s just confident enough at the current price to go ahead and get in play, but there will be so many opportunities throughout the season. And Cris something else you mentioned, a lot of betters end up going through their whole bankroll by the time we hit October, so it’s something to be mindful of. Yes, there’s good value to be found, there are good bets to place, hopefully more will win than lose, but you can bank on the fact that some that sound great right now, will end up going up in flames. So just keep that in mind, we’re in this for the long haul and the Steelers are one of many picks that we’ll get to collectively over the course of the season.

Matt Landis:

I know there are a couple of wins as well, so these aren’t bets that we encourage making but, Scott you mentioned a lean on the Browns under 10.5, any final words just to indicate why you feel that way looking at Cleveland?

Scott Kellen:

Yeah. And by the way, cup of tea, piece of cake is what I was trying to say earlier. So I lean under, and again it’s just a lean, just solely because they were very fortunate last year, they kind of overachieved from a Pythagorean standpoint. And then, they took that big jump last year, five wins more than the year before, and historically we’ve just not seen teams being able to bounce back quite as well, the following year, solely because of that, right? But very easy schedule, very talented team that’s added some pieces that have those all meshed together, they could easily win 11, 12 games. So, I’ll make it a lean just because of historical stuff, but nothing more than that.

Matt Landis:

Yeah. Fair enough. There’s a reason it’s just a lean, and on that same note, Cris you mentioned leaning under on Cincinnati, any final words to put a bow around the Bengals?

Las Vegas Cris:

I think it’s very important that each of us understands our weaknesses. And one of my weaknesses is predicting what’s going to happen. Again, NFL is very, very hard and the variables are just astounding. And I find I’m wrong more often than I’m right without some sort of metric evaluation. And the metrics from last year in my opinion, don’t mean squat, it’s all in the garbage. But, I look at Cincinnati and I lean under, and as I mentioned, well, you know they could get off to a really hard start and get some confidence, and I may be wrong on that. Like Scott’s doing on Cleveland, I feel more confident about Cincinnati going under than I feel than his Cleveland going under. Baltimore I think is going to win a lot, Cleveland’s going to win a lot.

Las Vegas Cris:

Pittsburgh can surprise but I’d probably lean that Pittsburgh goes under also. I’m optimistic, I’d like to see him do well but, I’m not betting any of it.

Matt Landis:

Yeah, fair enough. The best thing we can do as betters when we don’t have that conviction, just sit back and watch and learn, there’s no rush. We’ll have plenty of opportunity to get in on the action over the course of the season. And on that note, I think we’ve done about all we can with the AFC North. I’d like to thank you for tuning in to the BetUS NFL show. If you have any thoughts, questions or topics for future episodes, let us know in the comments of this video, or reach out to us on Twitter if you’re listening to this in podcast form. Speaking of Twitter, you can find Cris, @LasVegasCris, that’s C-R-I-S. You can find Scott, @SixthSenseNFL, and you can find me @AndLandis18.

Matt Landis:

For those of you watching on YouTube, you know the drill, subscribe to the BetUS YouTube channel, hit the notification bell so you don’t miss out on any of the action. And if you like what you’re doing, again, odds are if you’ve made it this far, you do like what we’re doing, go ahead and give this video a thumbs up. And last but not least, don’t forget to use the promo code, NFL 2021 when signing up for the BetUS sports book to claim your 125% signup bonus exclusive to sports betting, good up to $2,500. Friendly reminder as we sign off here, we will be with you every Tuesday and Friday throughout the season. So next up this Friday it’s the NFC north.

Matt Landis:

And if you’d love some more sports betting insight from Scott and Cris in the meantime, got a quick shameless plug here. I’m doing an interview series with them on my sports betting and beer podcast called Props and Hops. You can check that out wherever you get your podcasts. And that’ll do it for us for now. We’ll see you on Friday right back here at BetUS where the game begins.

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