Following Week 12, the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs continue to lead the way in the AFC Super Bowl 58 rankings. Just like where they have been all season, the Chiefs have yet to be usurped by another AFC team so far in 2023. The Chiefs bounced back in Week 12 following their tough loss in the Super Bowl rematch versus the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football in Week 11.
The loss to the Eagles didn’t sway the oddsmakers on the Chiefs, according to the NFL playoff lines. The Chiefs’ reign continues at the top, but they have the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins breathing down their necks heading into Week 13.
It’s never too early to make Super Bowl predictions, but at this moment, it’s still difficult to imagine the Chiefs not representing the AFC at Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas.
The top four AFC contenders got in the win column this week. The Baltimore Ravens continued to stay hot with their win over the Los Angeles Chargers. The Bengals were well on their way to becoming a top AFC contender again this season, but quarterback Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending injury that essentially is helping the Ravens to run away with the AFC North division title.
The Miami Dolphins took care of business in the first-ever Black Friday game as they demolished the New York Jets. The Jacksonville Jaguars managed to slow down CJ Stroud and the surging Houston Texans to put a stranglehold on the AFC South. Meanwhile, Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills suffered another crushing loss and have fallen once again in the rankings.
I’m back with a breakdown of the latest 2024 Super Bowl odds and taking a closer look at which AFC teams might push Kansas City for the top spot in the AFC Super Bowl rankings. I’ll also provide a breakdown of the latest NFL betting line and Super Bowl point spread for Super Bowl 58.
The AFC continues to be a tight race. We knew that would be the case before the season began, and that’s holding true as we enter Week 13. Every week, at least one top-five AFC team gets upset or has an impressive, dominating performance that makes us believe no one in the league can beat them.
How do the top AFC contender’s NFL Super Bowl odds look heading into Week 13? Let’s look at the latest AFC Super Bowl contenders ahead of Week 13.
1. Kansas City Chiefs Still Atop Super Bowl 58 Odds
(Last Week 1, +450)
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs remain on top of the AFC Super rankings heading into Week 13. A week after falling to 7-3 on the season, they bounced back in a big way over their AFC West foes, the Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs improved to 8-3 with their 31-17 win over Las Vegas. Kansas City lost 21-17 versus the Philadelphia Eagles in the highly anticipated Super Bowl rematch in Week 11, and immediately need to put that behind them. The Chiefs have not lost back-to-back games since early in the 2021 season, and they kept that streak going with their win this week.
The Chiefs’ season has been a bit of a roller coaster despite being the top-ranked team in the AFC. This is mainly due to their offensive struggles, which is strange to say for a team led by Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. They certainly looked on the same page in Week 12.
Super Bowl LVIII Odds: Kansas (+450)
Reigning MVP Mahomes completed 27 of 34 passes for 298 yards and two touchdowns. Despite the bounce-back performance, Mahomes sits behind Jalen Hurts for MVP with odds of +375. The major key for the Chiefs and Mahomes was to get their wide receivers on the same page after they dropped multiple passes in the loss to the Eagles.
The Chiefs found themselves down two touchdowns early on the road against Las Vegas, but they quickly stepped on the gas and started to pull away. The catalyst for the Chiefs was rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice, who became the first KC receiver not named Travis Kelce to have 100 receiving yards this season. Rice finished with eight receptions, 107 yards and a touchdown that he scored on a 39-yard catch and run.
Rashee Rice can’t be caught! TD @Chiefs
— NFL (@NFL) November 26, 2023
The Chiefs’ defense is easily the best that Mahomes has played with in his career so far. Before their bye, the Chiefs stalled the Dolphins’ No. 1-ranked offense, holding Miami scoreless in the first half. They kept Tyreek Hill in check, holding him to eight catches for just 62 yards. It was the first game that Miami was held scoreless in the first half since Week 2 of the 2021 season. Cornerback L’Jarius Sneed is quietly putting together an All-Pro season as he followed up his performance in Germany by holding Philadelphia’s AJ Brown to just one catch for eight yards in Week 11. On Sunday, he kept Davante Adams in check. Sneed is a prime example of the Chiefs’ dominance on that side of the ball this season.
The Chiefs have their defense to thank for their continued standing at the top of our AFC Super Bowl rankings. The unit, led by defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, continues to impress. Compared to recent seasons, the Chiefs’ defense has been one of the best units in the entire NFL. They rank third in points allowed at just 16.5 points per game.
The AFC Championship Game has been played at Arrowhead for a record five straight seasons, and as of today, the next team in our rankings is the favorite to end Kansas City’s historic run.
The Chiefs will have an excellent opportunity to stay on track when they take on the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football at Lambeau Field.
2. Baltimore Ravens Rising in Super Bowl 58 Odds
(Last Week 2, +800)
The Baltimore Ravens continue to ascend. They have quietly been the juggernaut of the AFC. They had a tough loss versus the Cleveland Browns in Week 10 but bounced back with a win over the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night in Week 11. They have won six of their last seven, and some of the wins have been the most impressive of any AFC team this season.
The Ravens demolished the Detroit Lions in Week 7 and crushed the Seattle Seahawks in Week 9. Baltimore sits on top of the AFC at 9-3 following their win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football in Week 12. The Ravens’ Super Bowl 58 odds continue to creep closer to the Chiefs. If the season ended today, the AFC Championship Game would likely go through Baltimore.
Lamar Jackson finished with just 177 passing yards, one touchdown and 39 rushing yards in the 20-10 win over the Chargers. The Bengals had won the AFC North the last two seasons, but it appears the Ravens are going to take the crown in 2023.
Super Bowl LVIII Odds: Ravens (+700)
The Browns were the last team to defeat Baltimore, but they also lost their starting quarterback, Deshaun Watson, for the rest of the season. The Browns also just lost to the Broncos and have fallen to 7-4. It also sounds like they could be without All-Pro Myles Garrett after he suffered a shoulder injury in the loss. Injuries have kept Lamar Jackson off of the field in recent seasons, but he has stayed healthy in 2023. The Ravens’ only real threat left in the division is the 7-4 Pittsburgh Steelers.
Jackson is in the middle of the MVP conversation, trailing only Jalen Hurts and Mahomes with +400 odds. With tight end Mark Andrews suffering a season-ending ankle injury, the Ravens need its receiving group to step up for Jackson moving forward, and that’s exactly what happened. First-round-rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers finished Week 12 with two touchdowns and 62 total yards. It was the breakout game and boost the offense needs moving forward.
The Ravens continue to own one of the best defensive units in the NFL. The Ravens forced four turnovers in the win over the Chargers, who typically don’t give the ball away. The defense has allowed just 16 touchdowns, the lowest in the NFL, and is allowing the second-fewest points per game at 15.6. They lead the league with 47 sacks.
Ravens defense vs the Chargers:
🟣 3 fumble recoveries
🟣 1 INT
🟣 1 TD allowed
🟣 3 sacks pic.twitter.com/2P18DoRYvB
— PFF (@PFF) November 27, 2023
If the offense can keep up with the defense, it will be tough for any team to defeat Baltimore. The Ravens will be trouble for any team they face in the playoffs. Baltimore is rightfully in the second spot in our AFC Super Bowl raningks and has built a compelling case to be named the best team in the NFL right now. If the Super Bowl point spread scenarios came out today, the Ravens should be considered the favorites by oddsmakers.
Up next for the Ravens is some bye-week blues to rest and get healthy for a final push. They return to action in Week 14 when they host Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. In the two games this season that the Ravens have hosted NFC opponents, they combined to outscore them 75-9.
3. Miami Dolphins: Win Doesn’t Boost Super Bowl 58 Odds
(Last Week 3, +900)
It has been well documented that the Miami Dolphins have struggled against teams with a winning record, but they certainly take care of business when they face teams who are .500 or worse. The Dolphins had the honor of playing in the inaugural NFL Black Friday game and they also had the honor of crushing the New York Jets, who were led by Tim Boyle. Miami grounded the Jets with a 34-13 beatdown in Week 12.
The Dolphins’ odds for Super Bowl 58 have been hovering around +1000 ever since their incredible 70-point eruption against the Broncos all the way back in Week 3, but they have fallen behind the Ravens in our AFC Super Bowl rankings. Their odds remain the same despite their convincing win over New York.
The Dolphins improved to 8-3. Tua Tagovailoa finished 21 for 30 for 243 yards and one touchdown. Tagovailoa had led the NFL in passing yards for the majority of the season, but he’s been passed up the last couple of weeks. He currently sits fourth with 3,177 passing yards. He sits fourth in NFL MVP odds at +900.
“That Dolphins team has a good group of leaders and young players..
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) November 27, 2023
The Dolphins own the most explosive offense in the NFL, thanks in large part to Tyreek Hill, who remains on a historic pace to have over 2,000 receiving yards in a season. The Cheetah finished with nine catches for 102 yards and caught the lone touchdown pass in the win. He now has 10 touchdown catches on the season, which was last done by a Dolphin in 2014. He has 1,324 receiving yards, which is the highest number in the first 11 games. Miami ran the ball effectively as veteran running back Raheem Mostert added two rushing scores and 94 yards on the ground.
Miami’s defense had been a concern, but the unit seems to have gotten on track for the back half of the season. Jalen Ramsey continued to play well, but their pass rush suffered a significant loss when Jaelan Phillips suffered a torn Achilles in the fourth quarter. The Dolphins will need their pass rushers to step up in his absence when they face top AFC quarterbacks.
Super Bowl LVIII Odds: Dolphins (+900)
The good news for Miami is that they have the personnel to make a deep run in the AFC playoffs and more time to gel. The Dolphins have lost all three games they have played against winning teams this season. Their eight wins have come against teams with a combined record of 26-53. Their soft schedule should help them solidify their standings in the AFC rankings.
Next week, they take on the Washington Commanders, followed by home matchups versus the Tennessee Titans and New York Jets. Miami could easily be 11-3 before their last three games against difficult opponents.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars Quietly Climbing in Super Bowl 58 Odds
(Last Week 4, +1800)
The Jaguars’ Super Bowl odds continue to be on the rise. Since suffering that embarrassing 34-3 loss to the San Francisco 49ers coming out of their bye in Week 10, they have bounced back nicely over the last two weeks. The Jaguars took care of business in Week 11, came out in Week 12 and walked away with a massive divisional win.
Jacksonville’s stranglehold on the AFC South continues with an 8-3 record. Jacksonville had to travel to Houston and slow down a surging Houston Texans team, and it did just that. The Jaguars have won six of their last seven games and are 15-5 over their last 20 regular-season games.
The Jaguars’ defense has led the NFL most of this season in takeaways, and Trevor Lawrence has strung together back-to-back strong performances. The former first overall pick was beginning to be ridiculed, but he has played exceptionally well of late, silencing the doubters for now. Lawrence completed 23 of 38 attempts for 364 yards and one touchdown to Calvin Ridley, who finished the game with five receptions for 89 yards. Lawrence and the Jaguars control their own destiny following their 24-21 victory in Week 12.
Super Bowl LVIII Odds: Jaguars (+1600)
You might have forgotten, but the Jaguars made some noise in the postseason a year ago when they managed the most improbable comeback win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Lawrence orchestrated an incredible 27-point comeback in the Wild Card game. Jacksonville then faced the daunting task of the Chiefs at Arrowhead in the Divisional Round, and the Jaguars gave Kansas City a run for its money. The Jaguars are a young team, but they have the playoff experience to surprise people in the playoffs.
Jacksonville will travel back home in Week 13 and host a suddenly not-so-dangerous Cincinnati Bengals squad on Monday Night Football.
5. Buffalo Bills: Super Bowl 58 Odds Stagnant
(Last Week 5, +2500)
The Buffalo Bills have fallen to .500. They suffered their third absolutely heartbreaking loss of the season in Week 12. They fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and immediately their offense looked revitalized in their 32-6 rout of the New York Jets in Week 11. They came out this week and were on the losing end of what was probably the game of the season – if I had to pick. The Bills had the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles on the ropes, but they ultimately couldn’t stop Jalen Hurts and company.
Buffalo lost 37-34 in an overtime thriller and has now failed to win back-to-back games since Oct. 1. The loss was the perfect example of how the Bills season has played out.
— NFL (@NFL) November 27, 2023
Josh Allen played at an MVP level, throwing for 339 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 81 yards and two rushing scores. With Joe Brady taking over play-calling, it appears their offense is back on track.
Allen was the early front-runner for NFL MVP, but he has dropped out of immediate contention, tied with the sixth-best odds of +2000. The Bills have suffered multiple injuries to key defensive players this season, which will make it difficult for them to take down their toughest opponents. The Bills will need the offense to carry them the rest of the way like they tried to do in the loss at Lincoln Financial Field this past Sunday.
Super Bowl LVIII Odds: Bills (+3500)
Buffalo is currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. The Bills sit 10th in the AFC standings behind the Colts, Texans and Broncos. Only the top seven teams reach the playoffs, so Buffalo has its work cut out if they want a chance.
The good news for the Bills is they have proven they can compete with the best the NFL has to offer. The bad news is the Bills’ schedule doesn’t get much easier. They face some bye week blues in Week 13 to lick their wounds, but their next two games are against the Chiefs at Arrowhead and then the Dallas Cowboys back at home.
Questions Of The Day
Which teams are emerging as the front-runners to represent the conference in the game?
The teams emerging as the front-runners to play in the AFC Championship Game are the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens.
Which AFC team is expected to have a high-scoring offensive game this week?
The AFC team expected to have a high-scoring offensive game this week is the Miami Dolphins.