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AFC Super Bowl 58 Rankings: Ravens, Bills Lead Odds Board

The stage is set with the conclusion of the regular season. We have seen significant shifts in the Super Bowl 58 rankings among the remaining AFC teams. The Baltimore Ravens have locked up the top seed and, with it, a bye in the Wild Card round.

San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl betting odds. The Miami Dolphins continue to stumble. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills’ rise back into Super Bowl contention has sustained. I’m not convinced we can count out the defending Super Bowl champs quite yet.

AFC Super Bowl 58 Rankings: Ravens, Bills Lead Odds Board
Isaiah Likely #80 of the Baltimore Ravens celebrates | Patrick Smith/Getty Images/AFP

The fifth-seed Cleveland Browns are a team no one wants to face in the playoffs. The Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers surprisingly both clinched a playoff spot and are priced as massive underdogs heading into Wild Card weekend. It has been a tightly contested race for who will represent the AFC at Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas this entire season.

I’m back with a breakdown of the latest 2024 Super Bowl odds and a closer look at which AFC teams might push the Ravens in the AFC Super Bowl rankings.

How do the top AFC contender’s NFL Super Bowl odds look heading into Wild Card weekend? Let’s look at the latest AFC Super Bowl contenders ahead of the Wild Card round.

1. Baltimore Ravens (+325) Firm Favorites in Super Bowl 58 Odds

(Last Week 1st, +300)

The Baltimore Ravens have one more week to rest and prepare until they continue their push toward a Super Bowl. Baltimore secured home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and a bye for Wild Card weekend. They finished the season 13-4 after they sat most of their starters in Week 18 against the AFC North rival Steelers.

The Ravens have the likely MVP at the helm in Lamar Jackson. The MVP race has been a roller coaster all season, but Jackson appeared to have secured his second MVP award after he and the Ravens crushed the 49ers 33-19 back in Week 16. He followed that up by throwing five touchdown passes against the Miami Dolphins to lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Each of the last six MVP awards were given to quarterbacks on No. 1 seeds.

The Ravens have been the juggernaut of the AFC all season. They won 10 of their last 11 games before sitting their starters in Week 18. Baltimore’s defense has flown under the radar this season despite arguably being the best unit in the NFL.

The defense has allowed just 26 touchdowns, the fewest in the NFL, and is allowing the fewest points per game at 16.5. The Ravens lead the league with 60 sacks.

Baltimore will host the lowest remaining seed after the Wild Card round, and with home-field advantage, the sky is the limit for this team over the next month.

2. Buffalo Bills (+650) Surging in Super Bowl 58 Odds

(Last Week 2nd, +850)

Give the Bills credit for battling through adversity to claim their fourth consecutive AFC East crown. Buffalo defeated the Miami Dolphins 21-14 in Week 18 behind a fourth-quarter comeback to win the division and claim the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

By earning the No. 2 seed with an 11-6 record, the Bills will avoid facing the Ravens until at least the AFC Championship. Buffalo will host the Steelers, who are the No. 7 seed, on Sunday in the Wild Card round.

Buffalo has won five straight games and six of its last seven since firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey after Week 10. Josh Allen is a wrecking ball and can carry the Bills to victory against any opponent. Allen led the league in total touchdowns this season with 44 (29 passing, 15 rushing).

The weather at Orchard Park on Sunday is forecasted to be brutally cold, with a chance of snow. Both teams suffered injuries in Week 18, but the most significant is on the Steelers side. Pittsburgh will likely be without T.J. Watt. Pittsburgh will be forced to blitz Allen to create pressure, who had the third-best passing grade against the blitz this season. Buffalo is in a strong position to make a deep run in the playoffs.

3. Kansas City Chiefs (+1000) Steady in Super Bowl 58 Odds

(Last Week 3rd, +1000)

The defending Super Bowl champions sit firmly as the third seed in the AFC despite a season of turbulence for the Chiefs on the offensive side of the ball.

Kansas City finished 11-6 and locked up its eighth consecutive AFC West crown. The Chiefs have grown accustomed to hosting the AFC Championship as the path to the Super Bowl has gone through Arrowhead for a record five straight seasons. That is likely going to come to an end.

I’m not willing to doubt Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, but the Chiefs offense has struggled all season long. The receivers have made mental and physical mistakes week after week. They will host the Dolphins and Tyreek Hill in the Wild Card round. Hill had one of the best seasons by a wide receiver in NFL history and will be eager to take down his former team.

Kansas City does own one of the best defensive units in the NFL. They allowed the second-fewest points per game (17.3). The Chiefs have the second most sacks in the NFL with 57, and their secondary has played extremely well, led by L’Jarius Sneed. This is the best defense Mahomes has ever played with, so we can’t count out the Chiefs to make another run to the Super Bowl.

This will mark the second time Mahomes will play on Wild Card weekend. The Chiefs defeated Miami 21-14 back in Week 9 in Germany.

4. Miami Dolphins (+1600) Drops in Super Bowl 58 Odds

(Last Week 4th, +1200)

Miami’s late-season struggles landed the Dolphins outside the top three teams in the AFC entering Wild Card weekend. Miami has struggled all season long against teams with a winning record, finishing the season 1-5 in this scenario. Tua Tagovailoa finished the season with 4,624 passing yards to lead the NFL, and Tyreek Hill finished with 1,799 receiving yards.

With Miami’s loss in the regular-season finale against the Bills, the Dolphins dropped to the sixth seed in the AFC and they will be faced with the task of facing the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead on Saturday night. The forecast in KC is calling for negative temperatures, which doesn’t sound appealing to the team from South Florida.

The NFL is a battle of attrition, and Miami is losing that fight down the stretch. The injury bug has struck Miami and could cost them a season that appeared promising. They were without Raheem Mostert,Jaylen Waddle, and cornerback Xavien Howard this past Sunday and lost Bradley Chubb to a torn ACL in Week 17. Miami’s defense has been obliterated by injuries down the stretch, and this could prove costly against PatrickMahomes and the Chiefs.

5. Cleveland Browns (+3300) Rising in Super Bowl 58 Odds

(Last Week Tied 5th, +3500)

Cleveland has exemplified resiliency in 2023. The Browns have arguably provided the best story in the NFL this season. Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco has ignited this team to its second playoff appearance since 2002. The Browns are 11-6 and own the top Wild Card spot.

Flacco has gone 4-1 as the starter for the Browns and has thrown for 300 yards in four consecutive games. Head coach Kevin Stefanski is among the favorites for Coach of the Year, and Myles Garrett is in consideration for Defensive Player of the Year. Cleveland became the first team in NFL history to reach the postseason in a season that saw the Browns start four different quarterbacks.

The Browns rested their starters in Week 18, and they will travel to take on a hungry Houston Texans squad to kick off Wild Card weekend this Saturday. The Browns are slight 2 ½ point favorites on the road.

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6. Houston Texans (+4000) Join Super Bowl 58 Odds Party

(Last Week 7th, +10000)

The Texans won the AFC South title after the Jacksonville Jaguars’ collapse continued in Week 18. Houston finished the season 10-7 and is one of the most unlikely playoff teams in recent memory.

Led by rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, the Texans will host the Browns on Wild Card weekend. Houston was defeated by the Browns back in Week 16, but Stroud sat out that matchup with a concussion. Stroud joined the elite company this season after leading the NFL in passing yards per game and touchdown/interception ratio. The two other quarterbacks to accomplish this were Joe Montana in 1989 and Tom Brady in 2007.

Stroud has put together one of the best rookie seasons in recent history, but a matchup with the Browns defense won’t be easy. Stroud has played like a veteran, but Cleveland owns one of the nastiest defensive units in the NFL, ranking first in EPA allowed per play and success rate allowed.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers (+12500) Longshots in Super Bowl 58 Odds

(Last Week 9th, +25000)

The Pittsburgh Steelers earned their way into the final AFC Wild Card spot after they finished the season 10-7 following their 17-10 win in Week 18 over the undermanned Ravens. Mason Rudolph has led a late-season resurgence for the Steelers, and they squeaked into the playoffs after the Jacksonville Jaguars lost in Week 18.

Pittsburgh will travel to Buffalo to battle the Bills on Sunday in the Wild Card. It’s a tall task for the Steelers, who became just the fifth team in NFL history to win at least 10 games and have a point differential of -20 or worse. Endorsing a Steelers upset in Orchard Park is likely unwise, given they will likely be without T.J. Watt after he suffered a sprained MCL in Week 18.

If they manage to shock the world, the vaunted Ravens would await them.


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Questions of the Day

Are the 49ers’ +225 Super Bowl odds too good to pass up, or is there value in waiting for a potential upset later in the playoffs?

There is value on the AFC side with the Baltimore Ravens for a potential upset of the 49ers.

Which underdog team do you think has the potential to make a deep playoff run and shake up the Super Bowl picture?

Beyond the top favorites, an underdog with the potential to make a deep Super Bowl run in the AFC is the Kansas City Chiefs.


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