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After 2023 Collapse, Can Jaguars Defy Betting Odds in 2024?

After winning the AFC South Division title in 2022 and qualifying for the playoffs for the first time since 2017, there were lofty expectations for the Jacksonville Jaguars a season ago. Despite winning six of the first eight games, the Jaguars just missed a playoff spot in 2023.

The NFL odds have Jacksonville behind only the Houston Texans in the AFC South Division odds. The Jaguars seem to be a little undervalued as they are tied for ninth at +2000 in the odds of representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

After 2023 Collapse, Can Jaguars Defy Betting Odds in 2024?
Calvin Ridley #0 of the Tennessee Titans | Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images/AFP

Keep an eye on receiver Brian Thomas Jr. as a candidate to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year now that Calvin Ridley is with the Tennessee Titans.

When looking at the NFL futures odds, there are 16 teams with better odds of winning the Super Bowl than the Jaguars.

Things get underway in the preseason when the Jaguars welcome the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs to town in the preseason opener on Aug. 10. A week later, Jacksonville stays at home to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before the preseason slate wraps up against the Atlanta Falcons on Aug. 23.


What a Difference a Year Makes

Coming off a division title in 2022, Jacksonville was tied for the seventh-shortest odds to win the AFC during the 2023 season.

The AFC championship odds for the Jaguars have moved from +1400 at the start of the 2023 season to +2000 at the current time.

The Jaguars were the heavy favorites at -165 to win the AFC South in 2023 but now they are just +250 to win the division this season.

Those who bet online and rolled with the +550 odds for the Jaguars to win nine games during the 2023 regular season were pretty happy campers. It is pretty tempting to jump on the -125 odds for the Jaguars to go over 8½ wins this season.

Speaking of last year’s NFL betting trends, the Jaguars were 3-2 against the spread as a home favorite and covered in four of the six games against fellow AFC South teams.



Playmakers Abound in Jacksonville

Receiver Calvin Ridley only lasted a year in Jacksonville before moving onto Tennessee. However, an offense that includes quarterback Trevor Lawrence, running back Travis Etienne, tight end Evan Engram and receiver Christian Kirk can’t be overlooked.

The Jaguars used their first-round pick on former LSU receiver Brian Thomas and he could be a factor in the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year race.

Jacksonville added receivers Gabriel Davis and Devin Duvernay as well as offensive lineman Mitch Morse so scoring points shouldn’t be an issue.

Defensive end Arik Armstead and defensive backs Ronald Darby, Darnell Savage and Terrell Edmunds were brought in after the Jaguars lost a couple of starters in the secondary.

Is former No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker ready for a breakout season? If that is the case, he will team with Foye Oluokun and Josh Allen to lead the defense.


Challenges Coming Pretty Early for Jaguars

With three of the first four games coming against the Miami Dolphins, the Buffalo Bills and the Houston Texans, there will be no easing into the 2024 season for the Jaguars.

It wouldn’t be an NFL season without the league NFL sending the Jaguars overseas.

Jacksonville will play the Chicago Bears and No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams in London in mid-October with the NFL betting line currently favoring Jacksonville by one point. Seven days later comes another game in London for Jacksonville, with the Jaguars clashing with the New England Patriots. Jacksonville is the 6½-point favorite on opening lines.


Jaguars Look to Finish Strong

There are some pretty rugged stretches for the Jaguars this season.

After returning from a two-week stay in London, the next five games are against the Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, the Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions and the Houston Texans.

If the Jaguars can get through that stretch of games, there could be a light at the end of the tunnel.

Two of the last five games in the regular season come against a Tennessee Titans team projected to finish in the cellar in the AFC South standings. There is also a game against the Las Vegas Raiders late in the season so there is a chance that Jacksonville could make a late-season run.

It would be a far cry from the 2023 season when the Jaguars lost five of their last six games to just miss the playoffs.


Season Prediction

Jacksonville went from nearly upsetting the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2 to a late-season swoon that saw the Jaguars miss the playoffs. That has resulted in some pretty tame expectations when it comes to the NFL picks for this season.

There is nothing wrong with a 4-2 record against AFC South Division opponents. However, the Jaguars were just 2-4 against the rest of the AFC and that can’t happen again.

After using the draft to build the roster in recent years, Jacksonville finally has an experienced nucleus and that is going to make this a dangerous team in 2024.

There should be plenty of early money coming in on the Jaguars at -125 to go over 8½ regular-season wins.



Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.


Questions Of The Day

Do the Jacksonville Jaguars have the toughest schedule in the NFL?

Based on the 2023 win/loss numbers, the combined record of Jacksonvill’s opponents in 2024 are tied for the eighth highest in the NFL.

Which Jacksonville players have the best odds to win NFL individual awards?

Edge rusher Josh Allen is seventh at +2000 in the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds. Receiver Brian Thomas is 10th with +2200 odds to be the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence (+2500) is tied for 13th in the NFL Most Valuable Player odds.

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