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All Signs Point To A Rough Thursday Night For Indy

Indianapolis Colts (1-3) vs New England Patriots (2-2)

Thursday, October 4th – 8:20 pm ET – Gillette Stadium
Betting Line: New England -10, Total 53

Tom Brady’s New England Patriots are back in the win column after losing two straight for the first time since the last two games of the 2015 season.

Julian Edelman #11 of the New England Patriots is tackled by Malik Hooker #29 and Clayton Geathers #26 of the Indianapolis Colts
Photo by Maddie Meyer / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP

The Pats put a hurting on a 3-0 Miami Dolphins team that was one win away from putting some serious distance between them and the rest of the AFC East. Instead, Miami finds themselves where they’ve been too many times before: on the receiving end of a Patriots whooping. New England maimed the Dolphins on a 38-7 blowout while holding them scoreless for the first three quarters.

New England played great football in Week 3. It all started with ball control. New England had the ball for over 60% of the game, winning the time of possession battle with 36+ minutes to Miami’s 23. That gave them plenty of time to score at will, and that they did.

Tom Brady completed 23 of 35 passes for 274 yards and 3 touchdowns in the win. Rookie RB Sony Michel scored his first touchdown as a pro while tallying 112 yards on 25 carries. New England racked up 449 total yards to Miami’s 172.

New England was clicking on defense all game. Miami QB Ryan Tannehill completed 11 of just 20 passes for 100 yards and 1 INT. His QB rating? Three. Point. Five.

The Colts were one of three teams to lose in overtime in Week 4. They’re 1-3 on the season and are headed to Foxboro to face the Patriots in primetime this Thursday night.

Indy QB Andrew Luck had one hell of a game throwing the ball. Luck completed 40 of 62(!) passes for 464 yards and 4 touchdowns. While he threw no interceptions, Luck was sacked 4 times and fumbled twice, losing the ball once.

Head coach

Frank Reich gambled in OT and lost. With 24 seconds left on the clock, the Colts decided to go for it on 4th and 4 from their own 43. Luck’s pass to Chester Rogers, who was in for the injured Ty Hilton, bounced short. Houston QB Deshaun Watson completed his very next pass to DeAndre Hopkins to set up the game-winning field goal as time expired.

The Colts are in for a world of hurt on Thursday night. Indianapolis is 0-7 SU vs New England since 2010. Since 1995, they’re 8-22 SU and 9-19-2 ATS vs the Patriots. Not only is New England close to unbeatable at home, (25-5 SU since 9/27/15), they cover at a ridiculous clip. The Pats are 21-7-2 ATS in their last 30 games as hosts.

Regardless of what may be happening off the field at Foxboro, this is a team that knows how to focus on the task at hand and win games. ESPN’s Max Kellerman has been talking about Brady falling off a proverbial cliff as far as his skill is concerned, due to his age (Brady is now 41). I’ll take a slightly worse Brady (and Belichik) over Ryan Tannehill any day of the week (and twice this Thursday).

This is a no-brainer, people. Take New England minus whatever over Indianapolis. New England has won five straight at home vs the Colts. In those five wins, they’ve averaged a +20.8 point differential. They’ve scored 31+ points in every one of those games (including three over 43+). I’m betting online on Brady. You should too.

 

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