Leveraging -110 odds for a profit in sports wagering is the norm, yet there are occasions when customizing the line to fit your preference can lead to more lucrative payouts. Discussions about it dominate message boards, advertisements are filled with it and it’s virtually impossible to overlook. However, what often goes unnoticed is the variety of lines and odds available for selection. Regarding the Super Bowl, there are a lot of NFL alternative betting lines we can pick from, both ATS and O/U.
Seeing as I have already decided to bet on the Chiefs to upset the 49ers, I could add value to that play by fiddling with the odds. Utilizing alternative odds like this is a great way to put your faith in a team by adding value while making it more difficult for your pick to cover.
On Wednesday morning, the Super Bowl lines at BetUS sportsbook listed the Chiefs as +2 underdogs and at +110 on the moneyline. While those odds are acceptable, we can do better.
NFL Picks on Alt Spread
We can bet the alternative spread up to 11.5 points, which is fun, but that’s not what I want to focus on exactly. We can move the NFL spread up to double digits and change who is the favorite and underdog.
I love moving underdogs like this and do it frequently in MLB with a reverse-run line bet online. Then I can bet underdogs at -1.5 and reap massive rewards if they pull off an upset.
The same idea applies here, with the odds for Super Bowl 58 shifting in favor of the Chiefs. Taking the Chiefs at -2.5 moves the odds to +120 and the “safe” bet here. If you think they will win by more than a field goal, the Chiefs are very tempting at +170 to cover -3.5.
The Blue Man Group had some great insights into #SuperBowl 58.
— Matt Lively (@mattblively) February 6, 2024
NFL Picks on Alt Total
With two of the best defenses in the NFL going to battle, the predicted total of 47.5 points feels a bit high. But betting under -110 is just too vanilla for my taste, so let us look at the NFL alternate over/under odds right quick.
At BetUS, we can take the total all the way down to 35.5 or max it out at 61.5. Considering I like the Under, let’s start at 47.5 and work our way down. Note that if we move the total down, the first number we can bet on is 43.5, not 46.5.
The same goes for if you want to bet the total up, with the first line at 51.5. While 43.5 is a big jump, the betting odds are tempting at +140. We could get greedy and go to 42.5 at +160, but moving the line four points is enough to get the value I want from this play.
Questions Of The Day
What are the NFL lines if we move the total to 35.5 points?
The Over isn’t worth your time at -600, and while it’s a longshot, Under 35.5 is a healthy +400.
What were the lowest- and highest-scoring Super Bowl games?
The fewest number of points scored in a Super Bowl was 16 when the Patriots beat the Rams 13-3 in 2019. The highest total was in 1995 when the Chargers and 49ers totaled 75 points.