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Betting on the No. 1 Pick in the 2024 NFL Draft

Caleb Williams is an undeniable talent in the run-up to the 2024 NFL Draft. The USC standout, known for his exceptional arm strength, dynamic mobility and knack for dramatic plays, was earmarked for success well before his collegiate triumphs. A Heisman Trophy winner and media favorite, he is one of the most eagerly anticipated quarterback prospects in recent years.

The NFL Draft odds heavily favor Williams to go No. 1 at -1200, but nothing is guaranteed in the NFL Draft. This is especially true for a guy like Williams, who exhibits many unlikable personality traits and has made questionable decisions in the lead-up to draft day.

Betting on the No. 1 Pick in the 2024 NFL Draft
Caleb Williams #QB14 of Southern California | Stacy Revere/Getty Images/AFP


I’m not saying he won’t go No. 1 overall, but I don’t think the choice is that obvious from the Bears’ standpoint.

Why Caleb Williams Might Not Go No. 1

While Williams is heavily favored to go first to the Bears, I think he isn’t worth the pick for Chicago. He has a ton of red flags, is making wild contract demands and is using his father, Carl, to help manage his career.

Carl Williams is an interesting character, to say the least, and is a bigger question mark heading into the 2024 season than any player. He’s also a bit of a wild card, even calling teams to inquire about minority ownership in whoever drafts him. The question is even more unhinged when you realize that NFL owners have already voted to ban such contracts after Aaron Rodgers tried to pull them off once.

The younger Williams isn’t helping his case with questionable decisions since he fell under the spotlight. In a notable departure from the norm, Williams chose not to share his medical information with teams at this year’s NFL Combine, an unprecedented move for potential No. 1 draft picks. He is reportedly the first Combine participant ever to forgo his medical exams. Ever.

Williams is more than just cocky, he’s acting very entitled, especially for a guy who regressed in 2023. We hear a lot about him being a Heisman winner, but many forget he won in 2022, not last season. He also has a bad habit of holding onto the ball too long. His time-to-throw stat was 3.44 in 2022 and 3.21 in 2023. While he did improve in that area, consider that Justin Fields’ average in the NFL is 3.23, and he was sacked 99 times in the last two seasons.

Former NFL scout Daniel Kelly said that, with all the red flags, he would rank Williams as a fourth-round NFL draft pick. He also said that of all the players he’s ever evaluated, Williams came off as the most “mentally fragile.”

Kelly also said Williams should be compared more to Johnny Manziel than Patrick Mahomes, which I found hilarious.

Williams’ controversial actions, including painting his fingernails with cuss words directed at opponents, declining to shake hands with Utah, and avoiding the media following the UCLA loss, have sparked discussions among NFL owners and decision-makers.

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Who Else Could Go No. 1?

Williams may lead the odds, but by my amateur estimation and personal eye test, Drake Maye is the best QB in the 2024 NFL Draft.


The gap between the two has always been minimal, which explains why they’re neck and neck in the latest quarterback rankings as they prepare for the NFL.

Maye embodies the traditional quarterback archetype — tall, athletic and strong-armed. He is reminiscent of the 1990s quarterbacks who dominated from the pocket yet could improvise when necessary. His ability to manage his pocket is a key trait that distinguishes him.

Maye is composed and efficient in the pocket, balancing aggression with control — a trait common among top-10 quarterbacks but elusive for others. This skill sets him apart as the more favored quarterback prospect.

While some scouts agree with me, the sportsbook doesn’t, and Maye is +850 to go first overall to the Bears.

Explore the excitement of NFL draft betting odds and Vegas odds NFL draft – your winning play awaits!

 

Questions of the Day

What are Caleb Williams’ odds of winning NFL end-of-season awards?


There will be no Rookie of the Year odds until the draft, but Williams is +6000 to win Offensive Player of the Year and +6000 to win MVP.

What is a good underdog bet to make for the NFL Draft?


Drake Maye to be the first quarterback selected (+850) and the No. 1 overall pick (+850) would make a great parlay bet.

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