Bills vs Chiefs Prediction: One More Trip Down Playoff Memory Lane

While Super Bowl odds fans were treated to two Eagles vs Commanders games per season, making their upcoming NFC title game feel like familiar ground, the story is quite different when it comes to the Bills vs Chiefs.

Pitting two of the best AFC squads against each other for yet another postseason war, it feels like whoever is in charge of writing the supposed NFL scripts that conspiracy buffs speak of knows exactly what everybody wants to watch.

For now, as we get ready for Sunday night when Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen duke it out for a fourth time in the playoffs, this time with the chance of going to Super Bowl 59, let’s talk about this rivalry’s background and what it means for this weekend’s AFC title game.

Allen vs Mahomes 4.0: AFC Playoffs Betting History Lesson

Ask any NFL betting odds fans about the Bills vs Chiefs playoff rivalry, and it’ll take less than a second for them to start going off on how this has become one of the best feuds in recent league history.

It can easily be taken as pro football’s version of the “immovable object vs unstoppable force” paradox, with Kansas City being the immovable object, considering its overall playoff dominance, and Buffalo being the unstoppable force, especially when it comes to defying all sports betting odds and never being down and out for the count.

With the last couple of matchups even thrown into the “greatest playoff game” conversation, let’s run down what’s made this postseason rivalry a must-watch event for NFL betting fans.

Sorry Bills, Chiefs Own Postseason Series

In football, just like in life, there are undisputable certainties. When it comes to the NFL playoffs, always counting on the Chiefs being virtually unbeatable is one of them.

Considering Kansas City’s +210 Super Bowl LIX odds, it’s hard to argue that logic. It’s even more complicated considering KC’s 3-0 record against Buffalo in the postseason, including a previous AFC title game win four years ago.

If there was anybody to blame for the continuing “Buffalo can’t get the job done” narrative when it comes to making it back to the Super Bowl, there’s only one culprit. Yes, Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Between a 42-36 OT win in their 2021 Divisional Round bout at Arrowhead Stadium (a personal all-time favorite of mine) and last year’s 27-24 victory at Orchard Park, the Chiefs have shown that if there’s a team Buffalo dreads to face in the postseason, it’s them.

More maddening for Bills fans is the fact that Buffalo has won three of the past four meetings with Kansas City over the past three seasons – all in the regular season. The lone loss? The aforementioned defeat last January in the Divisional Round, per Chiefs vs Bills stats.

Is This the Season Allen Beats Mahomes in the Playoffs?

There’s been a lot of talk going around NFL news and rumors sites on what magic formula or omen the Bills should rely on to try and get out of their playoff funk against KC. But who are we kidding here?

Let’s call things for what they are.

All those other times the Bills have played the Chiefs with the stakes raised this high, or at least close, Buffalo was not even close to the level it is at right now.

Take the 2020 season, for example. It was the first time since 1993 that the team had made it as far as this Sunday. On paper, they had a really good thing going for themselves. Sean McDermott was getting the hang of coaching Buffalo. The team had just won it’s first AFC East title in 25 years, and Allen had finally started showing fans what he could do when fully unhinged and running wild.

Still, the Bills would get beat to a pulp by KC 38-24, showing that Buffalo was still not ready to step up and tell the Chiefs: “Sup?”

This season though, things are different. Allen played in such form that it’s no wonder he was the NFL MVP odds favorite alongside Lamar Jackson, whom Allen beat out last weekend.

Buffalo is playing like a well-oiled football machine and, above all, it’s coming into this game with a gigantic chip on its shoulder: finally scoring that win against KC.

Sure, beating the Chiefs in the postseason seems close to impossible, especially when you consider this is a team that’s won eight straight postseason games and will be headlining their seventh straight AFC title game, per NFL betting trends.

But hey, isn’t trying to make the impossible possible the fun in all this?

What Do AFC Championship Game Odds Say?

Just because the game is on Sunday, that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be talking about the AFC title game odds right now. So, what’s the 101 on the game?

According to BetUS’ NFL lines, the Chiefs are coming in as tight ML favorites at -127 with the Bills currently standing at +107.

As far as the NFL spread goes, set at one point in favor of KC, a team with a 3-6-0 ATS record as home favorites. Meanwhile, Buffalo holds a 2-2-0 record as road underdogs. If that doesn’t tell you this game is bound to be way too close to call, then start paying better attention!

Finally, in what I feel is the best NFL pick to back for this game, with the O/U set at 47 ½, and considering both teams scored an average of 30.9 (Bills) and 22.6 (Chiefs) points , respectively, during the regular season, taking the over needs to be on your betting ticket for Sunday.

So, with everything said and done, who do you have moving on to rep for the AFC in Super Bowl LIX?

Has any team won three consecutive Super Bowl titles?

No, the Chiefs are bidding to be the first

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.