Breaking Down the Super Bowl Hangover: Curse or Coincidence?
Unpacking the Super Bowl Hangover: Is It a Statistical Anomaly, a Psychological Hurdle, or Just Bad Luck?
Impact on NFL Odds and Betting
It’s no small feat repeating as Super Bowl champions, and even getting back to the big game can be a herculean task. Is there a Super Bowl Hangover effect at play, or is the league so competitive that reaching the NFL’s biggest game on its grandest stage is simply too difficult an accomplishment?
Every Super Bowl winner eventually falls from its lofty world championship perch. Even the New England Patriots, the greatest dynasty the league has ever witnessed, were only able to win back-to-back titles once (2003 and 2004) over their nearly 20-year history of winning six Super Bowl titles and nine AFC crowns during the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick reign of terror.
The Kansas City Chiefs are gunning for an unprecedented third straight Lombardi Trophy, and the Super Bowl odds are once again favoring them to take home the hardware while the Super Bowl MVP odds once again favor quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Another chapter in this epic series. pic.twitter.com/GqL35wzpmT
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 20, 2025
The 49ers’ 2024 Struggles: Coincidence or Proof?
However, their rivals from last year’s title tilt, the San Francisco 49ers, are nowhere to be found. We saw firsthand how dramatically the 49ers fell from grace this season. After a narrow 25-22 loss to the Chiefs in last year’s Super Bowl, the preseason NFL playoff odds installed the Niners as one of the favorites to get back to the big game.
Patrick Mahomes was absolutely stunned when 49ers decided to take the ball first in overtime 👀pic.twitter.com/sGO8qa5wOX
— Brad Henson Productions (@BradHensonPro) January 11, 2025
However, San Francisco sluggishly broke out of the gate with a 4-4 mark after their first eight games. But it was then that their shame spiral began, winning just two of their final nine games, ending in a wildly disappointing 6-11 record, and on the outside looking into the playoffs.
Teams That Have Fallen Victim to the Curse
It’s much easier to talk about which teams had success the following year after their Super Bowl loss than it is to list the 54 teams that either didn’t make the Super Bowl or lost it again the following year. The 1970 Cowboys, the 1972 Dolphins, and the 2017 New England Patriots are the only teams to lose a Super Bowl game and rebound the following season to win the title.
February 5, 2017
(28-3)
Patriots defy all odds and come back from down 25 points (28-3) with just 17+ minutes remaining in regulation, to win the Super Bowl (34-28) over the stunned Atlanta Falcons
Craziest comeback I have ever seenpic.twitter.com/BTPUVa7VaI
— Boston Sports Info (@bostonsportsinf) February 5, 2023
As frustrating as it is for fans to watch their team claw its way to the top of the mountain only to lose in the pivotal game, it’s even worse for that team to be a nonstarter the following season, much like the 49ers this year. Yet, that is something that we don’t often see, as 70.2% of the Super Bowl losers make the playoffs the following season.
However, if it’s an exercise in futility and frustration that is even worse than the Super Bowl Hangover, it is the four consecutive Super Bowl losses by the Buffalo Bills to the Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys (twice) from 1990 through 1993.
Is the Super Bowl Hangover Real?
Well, the league has publicly stated that it wants parity so that fans of all teams have a fighting chance. With free agency and the NFL Draft changing the complexion of rosters each season, it is not surprising we see a revolving door of Super Bowl contenders.
Kittle is “hungry” to get back to the Super Bowl, and compares the “vibe” of the upcoming NFC Championship Game to past years 🔽 pic.twitter.com/wgyCZP53i4
— 49ers on NBCS (@NBCS49ers) January 26, 2024
Nevertheless, over the past two seasons, the Chiefs have been the exception to that rule, but whether they will defy the odds and become the first three-peat Super Bowl winner ever remains to be seen.
