Broncos vs Patriots: Week 6 Game Analysis

In unprecedented times fraught with the ongoing threat of the Covid-19 pandemic, the NFL has rescheduled games in response to positive test results. So, this matchup was moved from Week 5 to Week 6. Not all players are happy with the measures as the Patriots have had four players test positive in recent weeks. Barring additional positive tests, it appears that the Broncos will take on the Patriots in Foxborough on Sunday and both teams will get their starting QBs back. Pats QB Cam Newton has been cleared to practice and play after being removed from the Covid-19/reserve list. He asymptomatically tested positive before the Week 4 loss against the Chiefs. Broncos QB Drew Lock played through a full practice on Wednesday after sitting the past two games due to a shoulder injury he suffered in Week 2.

The Pats are 10-point favorites in this Week 6 matchup. Let’s take a look at some lines from the sportsbook and factors affecting Broncos vs Patriots.

Betting Lines

Head-to-Head

Bill Belichick has a 10-9 record, including the playoffs, against Denver as the Patriots’ head coach. The teams last met in 2017 as the Patriots won 41-16 behind three Tom Brady touchdown passes.

Denver Broncos

Betting Record

Last Game

The Broncos beat the winless Jets 37-29 to pick up their first win of the season in Week 4. Second-year QB Brett Rypien made his first career start at quarterback and finished 19-for-31. He threw two touchdowns and three interceptions, including a pick-six. Melvin Gordon had a game-high 107 rushing yards on 23 carries with two touchdowns. Broncos WR Tim Patrick had six receptions for 113 yards and a touchdown. Brandon McManus went 3-fo-3 on field-goal attempts, including a 54-yarder.

Aside from the interceptions, the Denver offense put together by far its best performance. Prior to Week 4, they were averaging 15 points per game. They more than doubled that figure and allowed no sacks. The Denver defense also sacked Jets QB Sam Darnold six times. Darnold only completed 23-of-42 passes and his well-documented struggles to start the season continued.

Stats Pack

Before he was charged with a DUI on Tuesday night, Melvin Gordon totaled 281 yards with 4.3 yards per carry and three touchdowns in four games. It remains to be seen what action the Broncos and the NFL will take against him, but either way, starting running back Phillip Lindsay will be available in Week 6 after missing three games with a toe injury.

26th and 28th: These are Denver’s rankings in the league in yards per passing attempt and yards per rush attempt, respectively. Outside of playing a subpar Jets defense, their offense hasn’t been able to get much going as they also rank 28th in points per game.

Trends

Denver has had quarterback issues. As a team, it has a 59.9 completion percentage, which is second-lowest in the league. The Broncos’ 214.3 passing yards per game also rank 27th. Fortunately, starting quarterback Drew Lock, who was injured in the Week 2 loss against the Steelers, was a full participant in practice on Wednesday.

The Broncos are 4-2 SU and ATS in games that Drew Lock has started at QB and played more than 50% of snaps. In 2019, the Broncos were 3-8 before Lock took over the starting QB job and they finished the season 7-9.

Injury Report

Questionable

TE Noah Fant

WR KJ Hamler

RB Melvin Gordon

LB Jeremiah Attaochu

NT Mike Purcell

New England Patriots

Betting Record

Next game: vs 49ers

Last Game

The Pats’ Week 4 gameplan was drastically altered when Cam Newton tested positive for Covid-19 two days before their scheduled game against the Chiefs. The game was subsequently postponed to Monday and veteran QB Brian Hoyer was named as the starter. It was always going to be a tough game against Pat Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl Champs even if Newton could play, but the Patriots came into Arrowhead Stadium as 11-point underdogs. Strangely enough, the Patriots outgained the Chiefs 357-323 but lost 26-10 to fall to 2-2. Mahomes threw 19 completions on 29 passes, his fewest of the season in both categories, but he did finish with 236 yards and two touchdowns. The Patriots only allowed six first-half points

Here is a look at the latest Super Bowl Odds

Hoyer was replaced by Jarrett Stidham in the second half after he was 15-for-24 for 130 yards and an interception. Stidham threw a touchdown pass but also completed less than half of his passes and threw two interceptions. The Pats missed Newton and will be awaiting his return. Their running game picked up the slack as RB Damien Harris ran for 100 yards on 17 carries and they totaled 185 rushing yards as a team. WR Damiere Byrd also had 80 yards on 5 receptions.

Stats Pack

The Patriots have averaged 179.8 rushing yards per game, which is second-best in the league. Their 35 rushing attempts per game are the most in the league. The Patriots were top 10 in rushing attempts in each of Tom Brady’s last two seasons but Newton has given them a different dimension on the ground in the three games he’s played and he’s sixth in the NFL all-time in yards per carry, with 5.1.

The Patriots’ balanced rushing game has meant that four players have 100 rushing yards or more. RB Sony Michel leads with 173 yards on 26 carries. His 6.7 yards per carry ranks third in the league. Newton is second with 149 yards on 35 attempts. RBs Rex Burkhead and Damien Harris have 128 and 100 yards respectively.

Trends

Life without Brady hasn’t been a completely smooth transition. New England is 24th in passing yards per game and 31st in passing touchdowns per game. Through four games they’re averaging 24.3 points per game, which is 22nd in the league. The last time the Patriots averaged fewer than 24 points per game was in 2005. You’d expect the offense to improve as the season progresses, but it is a concerning sign nonetheless.

The Patriots 2-2 start perhaps isn’t as concerning. Since Belichick became head coach in 2000, they’ve also done it in 2003, 2005, 2012, 2014, and 2017. They won the AFC East in all of those seasons. After starting 2-2 they’ve appeared in three Super Bowls and won twice, in the 2003 and 2014 seasons.

Injury Report

Questionable

WR Julian Edelman

T Isaiah Wynn

DT Adam Butler

G Shaq Mason

Betting on the Game

Point Spread: Patriots -10

In the two games, the Patriots have been favored, they’ve covered the spread. It is, however, the first time the Patriots have been double-digit favorites. In seven games last season as double-digit favorites, the Pats went 5-2 ATS. Denver has only been double-digit underdogs once in the last five seasons, covering the +10 spread against Minnesota last season. The Broncos haven’t been great this year, but they are 3-1 ATS so far and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games. They’ll also get Drew Lock back on Sunday, which should boost their offense.

Moneyline: Broncos +400 | Patriots -500

Denver is 3-9 in its last 12 games on the road and this certainly will be a tough test, especially given the extra wait time between games. Belichick has had nearly two full weeks to prepare for this 1-3 Broncos team and he’ll get his starting quarterback back. The Pats were a Seahawks goal-line stand away from going 3-0 with Newton and they’re heavy favorites.

Over/Under: 45 Points

Both offenses rank in the bottom third of the league in points per game and both defenses have been close to average. Denver’s defense has been reasonably good against the run, allowing 4.3 yards per carry. So, the Patriots’ rush heavy offense doesn’t have its easiest matchup they’re still more than capable of breaking them down.

The Patriots have averaged more than 30 points per game in games that Newton has played, and only managed 10 in the Week 4 game he sat out. A small sample size, sure, but it’s undeniable that Newton makes the offense more dynamic with his scrambling ability. The O/U is 2-2 in both of these teams’ opening four games.