The Buffalo Bills look to bounce back on the road against their division rivals but it won’t be easy. The Miami Dolphins took out the New England Patriots on the road and have been tough to beat at the Hard Rock Stadium. The public is also siding with the Dolphins per the latest NFL lines.
|Game: Buffalo Bills (0-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-0) |
Location: Hard Rock Stadium. Date: Sunday
Time: 1 p.m. ET
|Team||Point Spread||Moneyline||Over/Under||Team Total|
|Buffalo||-3 -120||-175||48 -110o|
|Miami||+3 Ev||+155||48 -110u|
Head to Head
Miami may lead Buffalo 61-52-1 in the all-time series, but the Bills have had their number in recent meetings. Buffalo has won five straight against Miami and is 7-1 in the last eight meetings. The Bills with Josh Allen have outscored Miami 35.7-22.2 on a six-game average, with the last game being a 56-26 butt-whooping.
Next game: vs Washington Football Team
It was a tale of two halves for Buffalo against Pittsburgh. The Bills held the Steelers scoreless in the first half but gave up 17 fourth-quarter points thanks to turnovers. They lost 23-16 as a 6½-point favorite. Still, Buffalo outgained Pittsburgh in yards and played better for most of the game. But a loss is a loss and the team will look to bounce back against its AFC East rival.
The Bills lost receiver Isaiah McKenzie (shoulder) last game against Pittsburgh and his status is unknown. The team also remains without defensive tackle Harrison Phillips and defensive end Bryan Cox Jr.
Next game: at Las Vegas Raiders
Miami shattered our ATS Lock of the Week by upending the Patriots 17-16 in New England. Like the Steelers, the Dolphins won despite being outgained and having fewer possessions. The Patriots racked up eight penalties for 84 yards, which ultimately cost them the game.
Miami will be without wide receivers DeVante Parker (leg) and Allen Hurns (wrist) who are listed on the physically unavailable to perform (PUP) and injury lists, respectively. Offensive tackle Larnel Coleman (knee) is also on the IR.
Betting on the Game
Despite winning their opener, the Dolphins will remain three-point underdogs against Buffalo. Miami is already a popular NFL pick against the spread (ATS) as their line initially opened at 3½ points and has been cut down by a half-point. Most of the betting action has been for the Dolphins.
Folks don’t want to underestimate the Dolphins, who also finished 2020 as the best ATS team with an 11-5 record. Coach Brian Flores has proven himself to be a rising football mind as we saw Miami’s bend-don’t=break defense in action last week.
As for Buffalo, the sky isn’t falling despite a lackluster opener. The Bills did face one of the NFL’s best defenses. Buffalo now has a tough task of avoiding consecutive losses and it hasn’t had a good track record against Miami on the spread.
Buffalo is 7-1 straight-up against Miami but only 4-3 ATS. Additionally, the Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games and were 4-1 as a home underdog last season. Miami’s quarterback Tua Tagovailoa did not look so hot against New England but the team won despite his 79.6 passer rating.
So many unhappy Miami Dolphins fans after a WIN.
It could be worse…. Just look at the Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills, Titans, etc…
We’re 1-0!!!!! We beat a tough team, in their house.
Enjoy the win. ✌️ ☮️ #FinsUp
— Big E the Second ©© (@ian693_) September 13, 2021
Allen is a much better quarterback than Tagovailoa and Buffalo’s defense also frustrated Pittsburgh’s offense for most of their game. The key for the Bills is to stay focused on defense while the offense needs to step up so they can win the turnover battle.
Three points shouldn’t be a problem for Buffalo, which had a 12-point average margin of victory last season. Chances are, Buffalo winning also leads to Buffalo covering, as wins by two points or fewer only occurred on 8.54 percent of games between 2015 to 2019.
The moneyline opened for Buffalo at -180 with the comeback on Miami at +160. That’s moved toward Miami with Buffalo now at -175 and Miami at +155. This is the classic overreaction from people betting online as the favorite is coming off a loss and the underdog just won a road game.
Buffalo is 6-2 coming off a loss and is 7-1 when lined as a road favorite since 2019. The Bills, on paper, should be able to beat Miami. However, they showed last week that they have plenty of holes in their offense. They barely have a running game and their offensive line had a tough time protecting Allen.
Sure, they went up against one of the NFL’s most fearsome pass rushing units. But Allen, when pressured, does not do too well in the pocket and he still shows flashes of the young QB that would make head-scratching plays.
Tagovailoa is also difficult to trust, especially with Miami’s suspect offensive line. But the defense can carry the Dolphins here and bother Allen enough to make this a close one. Miami has given bettors few reasons to doubt them as underdogs.
The totals opened at 47.5 and has been bet up to 48 on the sportsbook. Buffalo and Miami both had low-scoring games in their openers. But the scoring usually goes bonkers when these teams meet. In fact, eight of their last 10 games have gone over the totals including their last five matchups.
Buffalo’s defense did have a pair of rocky performances on the road last season in losses at Tennessee and Arizona. Four of their last five road games have gone over the totals.
Still, both these teams have great defenses that can disrupt offenses. The Dolphins’ defensive line may just pressure Allen throughout the game and Tagovailoa will have a rough time passing against Buffalo’s savvy secondary.