The blazing hot Buffalo Bills head to Tennessee as favorites to beat the Titans, per Las Vegas’ NFL odds. Buffalo is among the top teams in the NFL following its huge Sunday Night Football win over the Kansas City Chiefs. But Tennessee could spoil the party, as it has done this in its recent betting history.
|Game: Buffalo Bills (4-1) at Tennessee Titans (3-2)
Location: Nissan Stadium. Date: Monday
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
|Team||Point Spread||Moneyline||Over/Under||Team Total|
|Buffalo||-6 -115||-245||54 -110o|
|Tennessee||+6 -105||+205||54 -110u|
This storied rivalry leans toward Tennessee. The Titans are 29-19 overall against Buffalo and 28-17 in the regular season. They’ve met for three straight seasons and Buffalo has won two, with Tennessee winning the last meeting last season via a shocking 42-16 blowout. Tennessee was a three-point underdog.
Next game: vs Miami Dolphins (Week 8)
The Bills made a statement by not only beating Kansas City but by demolishing the Chiefs 38-20. Buffalo was a three-point underdog and delivered as an NFL pick against the spread and more. The spread was never in doubt as the Bills scored a touchdown in each quarter and beat Kansas City for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era.
Linebacker Matt Milano (hamstring) missed the Sunday night game against Kansas City and may also not be available against Tennessee. Defensive tackle Harrison Phillips (knee) remains sidelined as well.
Next game: vs Kansas City Chiefs
Like the Bills, the Titans covered their spread by beating the Jacksonville Jaguars (37-19) by 18 points. The spread was only 4½ points for Tennessee but heading to the game, the Titans were only 1-2 against the spread (AT)S as a favorite. The first quarter was close, but Tennessee took control beginning in the second and never looked back.
Wide receiver Julio Jones (hamstring) missed his second game against Jacksonville and remains questionable for Monday. Other injuries include offensive lineman Aaron Brewer (knee), linebacker Jayon Brown (knee), punter Brett Kern (groin) and tight end Tommy Hudson (ankle).
Betting on the Game
The Bills are red-hot and over 90 percent of bets online have been toward them. That’s why the spread has gone up from 5½ points to six and it could move again if the one-way action continues.
Buffalo beat Kansas City with no issues and has covered four straight spreads. Tennessee, meanwhile, has been a shaky bet and is still dealing with a plethora of injuries. If Jones can’t go again, that weakens an already inconsistent passing attack.
Titans’ star running back Derrick Henry has been on a tear, but he is only averaging 3.82 yards per carry against Buffalo. The Bills have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards and are also limiting teams to just 4.25 yards per snap and 12.8 points. Both are the best in the league.
#Bills defense tonight…
Didn’t see a lot of pressure schemes. Played 2-deep to stay on top of routes. Jumped into some man coverage on 3rd & short/medium. And they tackled.
Really limited explosive plays vs. Mahomes & the KC passing game.
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) October 11, 2021
Buffalo is also 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games while Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last six home games. However, Tennessee has been a solid bet as an underdog. The Titans are 4-1 in their last five games as an underdog. They are 2-0 as a dog of six or more points since last season.
One of these upsets came over Buffalo. The Bills were riding high and were unbeaten at 4-0 (3-1 ATS). Buffalo committed four turnovers and quarterback Josh Allen had his worst game of the season.
If Tennessee is to put on an encore here, it will need to force Buffalo to commit turnovers. But that seems unlikely as the Bills have committed the second-fewest turnovers while the Titans force the fifth-fewest.
Additionally, the Titans have allowed the most sacks in the NFL with 20. Even if the Bills are not running too many pressure schemes, they are dominating. The total, set at 54, is likely to go under if Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee offense can’t get space to make plays.
The total has gone over in 10 of Tennessee’s last 14 games. The Titans lead the NFL in totals going over since 2020. But only six of their last 11 home games have gone over. Fifty-four is also a massive total, even if the Bills and Titans combine to score 61 points on average.
The ease at which Buffalo has been scoring makes the team hard to doubt. But it won’t be shocking if Tennessee can’t go past 20 points. With over 80% of the sportsbook’s bets on the over, it may be better to fade the public and go the other way.
But as far as predictions go, we’re not going to doubt Buffalo again. It should roll into Tennessee and get this one done.