Not to be deterred by last week’s stinker, the Buffalo Bills enter Week 10 as the sizable betting favorite against the New York Jets per Las Vegas’ NFL odds. The Bills will once be a double-digit favorite and if they hope to prove they are still a Super Bowl threat, they will need to blow out the Jets.
|Game: Buffalo Bills (5-3) at New York Jets (2-6)
Location: MetLife Stadium
Date: Sunday, Nov. 14, 2021
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
- Point Spread: Buffalo -13 (Ev), New York +13 (-120)
- Moneyline: Buffalo -650, New York +475
- Total: Over 47½ (-110), Under 47½ (-110)
- Team Total: Buffalo 30 -120o/-110u, New York 17 -120o/-110u
Buffalo swept the Jets last season, which marked the first time Buffalo had done so since 2015. Quarterback Josh Allen is 3-2 against the Jets and these franchises have split their last 10 meetings: five wins apiece. The underdog has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games.
Next game: vs Indianapolis Colts
It was a game to forget for the Bills as they were on the wrong side of this season’s biggest upset. Despite most NFL predictions picking the Bills, a 14-point favorite, they lost to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars 9-6. It was one of the worst losses of Allen’s young career as Buffalo failed to cover their spread for the third straight game.
Star linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring) has missed practice and may not play. On offense, running back Zack Moss (concussion) was also absent and is unlikely to suit up. Tight end Dawson Knox (hand) and tackle Spencer Brown (back) are back in practice.
New York Jets
Next game: vs Miami Dolphins
Riding high off of upsetting the Bengals, the Jets crashed to Earth as they got drilled for 45 points by the Indianapolis Colts. New York failed to cover their 10-point spread, dropping their record to 2-6 against the spread (ATS).
Quarterback Zach Wilson (knee) is taking reps in practice but is still weeks away from returning. Also potentially on the sidelines are running back Tevin Coleman (hamstring), wide receiver Corey Davis (hip), and offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker (toe). On defense, edge rusher Shaq Lawson (hamstring) is hurt.
Betting on the Game
Lightning may as well strike twice if the Buffalo Bills lose this one. Losing to the Jaguars, a bottom-five defense is one thing. But losing to the Jets, the worst defense is another. Buffalo still has one of the best turnover differentials in the league and last week was the only time they lost the turnover battle.
New York, on the other hand, has the worst turnover differential. This team has a terrible offensive line that has already gotten Wilson hurt after being sacked 19 times in six games. On defense, the Jets have allowed over 400 yards in four of their last five games.
Even if Buffalo is coming off a horrible loss, betting online on the Jets to pull another shocker or even cover the spread seems foolhardy. The Jets are 6-10 ATS as an underdog of seven points or more dating back to last season.
Buffalo’s offense has its issues, but its defense remained steadfast as it still held the Jaguars to just 218 yards. This unit is still the best in the NFL, allowing the fewest passing yards and yards per play. The offense does not have to be dynamite. It just has to reduce the errors and move the ball more efficiently.
By the stats at Football Outsiders, Bills QB Josh Allen played the single worst game of any QB in the NFL this season in Sunday’s loss to the Jaguars. Allen has taken a pretty big step backward this season. https://t.co/hWo1yLzqMU
— Michael David Smith (@MichaelDavSmith) November 9, 2021
To do that, Allen will need to return to his 2020 form. The MVP runner-up has struggled this season. In their three losses, Allen has turned the ball over five times compared to scoring four touchdowns. It’s no surprise Buffalo is just 1-2 both on the moneyline and spread as a road favorite.
It is tough to lean on either team here. On one hand, the Jets are brutal, riddled with injuries, and cannot take care of the ball. On the other, the Bills tend to let down in road games and Allen only has a 79 passer rating against the Jets on top of his struggles on the road.
It’s still “Buffalo or pass” on the sportsbook if you can stomach the steep moneyline. But a better angle here is to check this game to go under 47.5 as five of Buffalo’s last seven games against their division have been lower scoring than predicted.