The Buffalo Bills are one of two teams that are projected to have an 11½ regular-season win total at BetUS sportsbook. The other is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Does the market have it right? Will the Bills crack this lofty total? Or is the bar set too high? These are just some of the many heady questions NFL bettors are contemplating right now.
Find out how we line up for this market as we dive into Buffalo’s schedule and serve up our way-too-early, game-by-game predictions. We’ll look at the latest NFL odds currently trading for the Bills across various NFL betting markets while taking into consideration the latest NFL news, trades, injury reports and more before delivering our NFL predictions.
2022-23 NFL Futures – Buffalo Bills Odds
- Super Bowl LVII: +650
- AFC Conference: +325
- AFC East: -225
- NFL Regular Season Wins: Over 11½ -140 / Under 11½ +110
Bar is Set High for Buffalo
According to the sports betting exchange, this is the Buffalo Bills’ year. They are not only favored to win the AFC East crown, but they also lead the charge in the AFC and top Super Bowl LVII betting markets as the +650 favorites to hoist the coveted Lombardi Trophy.
Based on the trajectory of Buffalo’s last two seasons, the growth and maturation of quarterback Josh Allen during this period and the improvements that have turned this team into a legitimate contender, it’s easy to understand why expectations are extraordinarily high. They’re coming off back-to-back AFC East-winning seasons, capped off by an AFC Championship appearance in 2020 and a divisional round appearance in 2021 – losing on both occasions to the Kansas City Chiefs.
However, at the same time, it’s quite reasonable to feel somewhat skeptical. Arguably, the decline of the New England Patriots helped propel Buffalo into prominence. Let’s face it, It’s not a coincidence that Tom Brady’s departure in 2020 coincided with Buffalo’s first AFC East division title since 1995. (Josh Allen wasn’t even born then!)
This isn’t to take anything away from what the Bills have accomplished since, but rather to point out the absence of genuine competition in the division. Something that might be about to change with the AFC East improving this offseason and the Bills having to overcome their own key departures. Most notably, assistant GM Joe Schoen and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll going to the New York Giants, taking over as the team’s GM and head coach, respectively. Daboll is widely credited for developing Allen into the quarterback that he is today.
All eyes will be on new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. How he gets along with Allen and what Buffalo’s offense will look like under his stewardship. Then there’s the impact of other departures, such as wide receivers Cole Beasley, Jake Kumerow and Malik Williams. In addition, linebacker A.J. Klein and a couple of offensive linemen, Will Ulmer and Jon Feliciano, were also released. Of course, they’ve made some eyebrow-raising additions. too. None bigger than two-time Super Bowl champion Von Miller. That’s something to get excited about.
Nevertheless, before bettors – or the Bills, mind you – can even begin to look into the future, negotiating the regular season successfully will be paramount. And with that in mind, here’s how the Bills might fare this season.
Warning: You might not like what you’re going to read below because we’re definitely going against the grain here with our NFL picks. You’ve been warned.
Buffalo Bills Game-by-Game Predictions
- Week 1 @ Los Angeles Rams – Thursday, Sept. 8, 2022 – 8:20 p.m. ET
Opening week. On the road. Cross-country travel. A date with the defending Super Bowl champions, the Los Angeles Rams. Prime-time football. It doesn’t get any bigger. Oh, the pressure! Of course, both teams will be dealing with it, but one has to presume the bulk of it will be on the Bills to underscore their favorable SBLVII odds. Never mind the pressure Dorsey will face in his debut as the Bills offensive coordinator, squaring up against one of the most formidable defenses.
- Week 2 vs. Tennessee Titans – Monday, Sept.19, 2022 – 7:15 p.m. ET
For a second straight week, the Bills will be feeling the weight of expectations in prime-time NFL action. This time, it’s their season home opener. As matchups go, this isn’t the best one for Sean McDermott’s side. Mike Vrabel and the Titans have had Buffalo’s number in recent seasons. A lot is being made about the departures of Julio Jones and A.J. Brown, but the Titans still have Derrick Henry and a defense that is pretty respectable. This one is a bit of a toss-up for NFL picks, but would it be really so shocking if the Bills lost? They did lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers in their season home opener last year.
- Week 3 @ Miami Dolphins – Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022 – 1 p.m. ET
Allen’s record against the Miami Dolphins is something Buffalo fans can hang their hats on. The Dolphins improved loads in the offseason, namely on offense by acquiring Tyreek Hill. But it remains to be seen how everything fits. They’re also an unknown entity with a new head coach and a third-year quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa that has some way to go in the maturation process.
- Week 4 @ Baltimore Ravens – Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022 – 1 p.m. ET
A third road game against a legitimate contender in the first four weeks of the season is a lot. The Baltimore Ravens won’t be an easy out. They can turn this game into a defensive slugfest, thereby, neutralizing Allen and the Bills offense.
- Week 5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers – Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022 – 1 p.m. ET
The Bills lost to the Steelers in their season opener last year. It’s hard to see that happening this time around. The Steelers are starting a post-Ben Roethlisberger era and they are yet to decide on a starter. Will it be quarterback Mitch Trubisky or rookie Kenny Pickett? Whoever it is, it might not matter.
MAHOMES TO KELCE.
— NFL (@NFL) January 24, 2022
- Week 6 @ Kansas City Chiefs – Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022 – 4:25 p.m. ET
This matchup is kryptonite to Allen and the Bills. Yes, they finally got into the win column by beating the Chiefs at Arrowhead last season, but then they went on to lose to the Chiefs in the divisional round of the playoffs. When these two sides meet, fireworks go off. Anything can happen. And yet, so long as Patrick Mahomes is at the helm, it’s hard to bet against the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
Week 7: BYE
- Week 8 vs Green Bay Packers – Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022 – 8:20 p.m. ET
Early bye weeks can be a bit of a disadvantage. So too a date against one of the top NFC contenders in prime time, right out of bye week. Fun fact: The Bills have never lost following a bye week during McDermott’s reign. Another fun fact: The Packers have never beaten the Bills at Orchard Park. There’s always a first time for everything.
- Week 9 @ New York Jets – Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022 – 1 p.m. ET
The Jets improved substantially in the draft. How this all pans out largely depends on the performance of sophomore quarterback Zach Wilson. In this matchup, the Bills have the advantage, even with a ground game that was largely dependent on Allen’s legs last season.
- Week 10 vs Minnesota Vikings – Sunday, Nov. 13, 2022 – 1 p.m. ET
The jury is out on the Vikings, who are embarking on the post-Mike Zimmer era. How competitive will the Vikings be? Hard to say. But as far as the quarterback matchup goes, Kirk Cousins has nothing on Allen.
- Week 11 vs Cleveland Browns – Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022 – 1 p.m. ET
The Cleveland Browns are in limbo right now with the league still to make a decision on Deshaun Watson. Will Watson be playing in Week 11 (or at all in 20022)? Who knows? Regardless of who the Browns trot out at quarterback, though, the Bills should steamroll the Browns at Orchard Park.
- Week 12 @ Detroit Lions – Thursday, Nov. 24, 2022 – 12:30 p.m. ET
Thanksgiving Thursday in Motown! Should be fun. For the Bills, that is. For all their woes last season, the Lions played their hearts out for head coach Dan Campbell. They showed spirit, character and a never-say-die attitude that was admirable. They’re expected to be better in 2022, but not enough to beat a team as good as the Bills.
- Week 13 @ New England Patriots – Thursday, Dec. 1, 2022 – 8:15 p.m. ET
Mac Jones and the Patriots were the surprise package of the AFC East in 2021, giving the Bills a run for their money down the stretch. They split this series last season with each side winning on the road. This time, the Patriots win at home.
- Week 14 vs New York Jets – Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022 – 1 p.m. ET
The Bills look to sweep the series with the Jets here. This doesn’t mean Robert Saleh’s side will roll over. The Jets should be more competitive than they were last season, assuming they stay healthy. But one expects they need at least one more year to really find their feet.
- Week 15 vs Miami Dolphins – Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022 – TBD
Orchard Park in December can be a daunting ask, especially for a team that is used to milder climates like the Dolphins.
- Week 16 @ Chicago Bears – Saturday, Dec. 24, 2022 – 1 p.m. ET
Christmas in the Windy City. Bears quarterback Justin Fields is a legitimate talent, but the Bears don’t have much else beyond the second-year quarterback. Expect the Bills to blow into town and fly the coop with a pivotal road win.
- Week 17 @ Cincinnati Bengals – Monday, Jan. 2, 2023 – 8:30 p.m. ET
The Bengals are out to prove their 2021 run to Super Bowl 56 was no fluke. What better way to do it than on Monday Night Football with the nation watching? Joe Burrow is the real deal. Cincy’s offense is scary and the defense is much improved. If the Bengals are healthy at this late stage of the season and in contention, this will be a blockbuster showdown. Not to mention, a tough game for the Bills to win on the road.
- Week 18 vs New England Patriots – Sunday, Jan. 8, 2023 – TBD
The Bills will be hoping the winds won’t pick up this time around as they look to finish the regular season on a high.
Regular Season Win Totals Betting Verdict
Just about every single NFL prediction floating online right now has the Bills finishing anywhere between 13-4 and 15-2 this season. Basically, living up to the NFL odds as they currently stand. Obviously, the stance taken here is contrarian, to say the least. In this game-by-game preview, the Bills finish with 10-7 mark. Thus, falling under their projected 11½ win total.