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Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns: Betting Guide

Chicago Bears fans finally get what they’ve been wanting: The debut of quarterback Justin Fields The Ohio State star will start his first NFL game at the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, but the enthusiasm felt in the Windy City hasn’t transcended markets. Las Vegas NFL odds tip the Bears at +7 for this Week 3 matchup, signaling little confidence in the rookie’s long-awaited debut. The public, however, thinks otherwise. Bettors are taking advantage of Chicago’s market disadvantage, grabbing the points with the Bears.

Game: Chicago Bears (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)
Location: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland. Date: Sunday
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Television: FOX

Betting Lines

Team Point Spread Moneyline Over/Under Team Total
Chicago Bears +7 -110 +270 45½ -110o 20 -105o

20 -125

chicago-bears-cleveland-browns
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images/AFP
Cleveland Browns -7 -110 -330 45½ -110o 27 -110o

27 -120u

Head-to-Head

The last time these two sides met, the Bears beat the Browns 20-3 in 2017. The game featured two of the top 2017 NFL draft picks, Mitch Trubisky and Myles Garrett. Baker Mayfield was still an Oklahoma Sooner while Fields was entering his first year of college. These past trends are irrelevant to this matchup. The coaching staff, the personnel, the players – the waterboy – all have changed. Mayfield faces the Chicago Bears for the first time and Fields is making his first NFL start.

Chicago Bears

Next game: vs. Detroit Lions

Last Game

The Chicago Bears are coming off their first win, edging the Cincinnati Bengals 20-17 at Soldier Field. Andy Dalton started the game brightly, providing Chicago’s only score in the first half. Fields replaced Dalton after the veteran quarterback injured his knee, but his performance was met with mixed reviews. Statistically, he didn’t wow. Quite the opposite, in fact. Fields went 6 of 13 for 60 yards and an interception, and he added 31 yards on 10 rushing attempts. On the bright side, he converted a crucial third down on the Bears’ last drive, icing the game and holding off Cincinnati’s late-game surge.

Injury Report

Dalton was ruled out for Sunday with a knee injury, opening the door for Fields. Chicago fans, rejoice! Defensive end Mario Edwards Jr. is likely to be available on Sunday after completing a three-week suspension.

Cleveland Browns

Next game: at Minnesota Vikings

Last Game

The Cleveland Browns are coming off their first win, beating the Houston Texans 31-21. Mayfield and Co. were delighted to get into the win column and give fans some cheer. However, not to put a damper on the celebrations, but the game’s post-mortem tells a different story. It suggests the Browns were somewhat lucky to get the win.

For the first half of the game, things looked dicey. Houston QB Tyrod Taylor had the Browns on the ropes. He carved up the defense at will and lifted his side to the 14-7 lead in the first half before a hamstring injury forced him out of the game. With Taylor out, the Browns seized control and ran away with the victory.

Injury Report

Mayfield (shoulder) and Odell Beckham Jr. (knee) are both expected to play on Sunday. It will mark the season debut for Beckham. Wide receiver Jarvis Landry (knee) is out indefinitely, while linebacker Tony Fields II (illness), tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. (ankle), tackle Chris Hubbard (tricep) and defensive tackle Tommy Togiai (illness) are questionable.

Betting on the Game

Point Spread

Books corner this game with Cleveland, tipping the Browns as the -7 favorite. Whichever way you slice this game, it’s a lot of points to cover. The Browns are 1-1-0 against the spread (ATS) and there’s the concern surrounding Mayfield’s shoulder injury, even though Cleveland is downplaying its severity. And, lastly, the Browns defense isn’t up to snuff. For these three reasons, the Bears may well be in a value spot for NFL picks against the spread.

The Browns covered as the 5½ -point underdogs in the 33-29 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1, but they failed to cover as the -13½-point faves in a 31-21 win over the Texans. Cleveland pulled away after Taylor exited the game. It’s hard to overlook the fact that things might have ended differently for Kevin Stefanski’s side had Taylor remained in the game.

The Bears were blown out by the Rams 34-14 in Week 1, failing to come through for their backers as the +9.5-point closing road underdogs. The following week, the Bears struggled to contain a Cincinnati Bengals team that’s widely expected to finish among the worst in the NFL. Although Chicago did pull off the cover as the two-point home chalk, it did so by the skin of its teeth. The Bears are 1-1-0 ATS with a minus 4.8 differential versus the spread.

Bears backers can hang their hat on the fact that the first two games of the season were largely the work of Dalton. Granted, Fields did come into the game in the second quarter last week, but he was thrown into it with little preparation. The hope in Chicago, and for Bears fans, is that a week of training with the first team will be the difference-maker.

Moneyline

Should the Browns be the choice bet for NFL picks here, even though they’re a pricey bet? A wager on the Browns to win will cost bettors just a little bit over three times the payout (bet $330 to win $100). At the face of it, the moneyline odds make sense because the Browns had the better credentials coming into the season. But after two games, there should be genuine concern. The offense has registered key injuries, including Mayfield and Landry. And the defense can’t stop water from a running tap right now.

For the Bears to pull off the upset as the +270 road underdogs, they’ll need to play better from top to bottom and start to finish. Chicago’s defense can keep it in the game. Whether Fields rises to the occasion depends on how quickly he can adapt to the NFL. And short of a crystal ball, that’s tough to predict. In other words, it’s the quintessential longshot bet.

Over/Under

Books opened with a total of 47 points for this game, but it dropped sharply to 45½ after Dalton was ruled out. Mayfield’s shoulder injury, Landry’s move onto the IR list and Beckham’s availability are other factors that have led to a modest total. This game could go either way of the total, but the under might be the smart bet. Considering Fields’ limited experience, the Bears are likely to take a conservative approach. Whether the Browns follow suit or press the initiative depends on Mayfield’s shoulder. If his shoulder injury is more serious than they are letting on, the Browns could be running the ball predominantly, too.

Final Score: Chicago Bears 21, Cleveland Browns 20

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