Preseason 2024 Super Bowl odds favored the defending champions Kansas City Chiefs to finish on top again for the second straight season. Understandably, the Chiefs were the favorites by being the reigning champion, with odds at +600.
Since then, despite some on-field troubles, especially recent bumps in the road, the Chiefs remain one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. BetUS has the Chiefs with the best odds out of the AFC as the last team standing. They are tied with Philadelphia – their opponent from Super Bowl LVII – at +550 and behind the San Francisco 49ers at +325, another team they beat in the Super Bowl back in 2020.
However, it does look like Kansas City will be well on its way to capturing its eighth straight AFC West Division title, with NFL odds at -5000 for them to win it. The biggest question for the rest of the season is whether the Chiefs can capture the No.1 seed and a first-round bye. They have an 8-4 record after Week 13.
Kansas City Season Recap
This season has felt slightly different for the Chiefs compared to their prior success. Kansas City has been to at least the AFC Championship Game in five straight seasons, which is why Super Bowl betting will consistently back the Chiefs.
Patrick Mahomes has the most games with 2+ TDs (66) of any QB in history in their first 7 seasons.
— NFL (@NFL) November 29, 2023
However, throughout this six-year-long run of the Chiefs’ success, the team’s anchor has been Patrick Mahomes and the offense. Mahomes won his second MVP last season, and he has had the Chiefs ranked in the top six in points and yards every season he has started. This season, that is not the case.
After a Week 13 loss to the Green Bay Packers, Kansas City’s offense is 11th in points and eighth in yards. It is not a drastic difference from the past five seasons, but it seems enough sometimes to make NFL predictions have second thoughts about the Chiefs’ offense.
On top of that, they have only scored over 30 points three times this season, which is something we are not used to, given how elite this offense has been. The loss of wide receiver talent in free agency and trying to replicate production by committee has backfired slightly. The loss of offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy could have also caused some issues.
On the other hand, this might be the best defense in the Mahomes era. He has never had a defense within the top five in points or yards allowed till this season. The Chiefs’ defense is ranked third in points and fourth in yards, which is a big reason why NFL lines are not even thinking about shifting away from the team.
That still has not made Kansas City bullet-proof. The Chiefs opened the season with a home loss to the Detroit Lions before immediately winning six straight and getting NFL picks back on their side. They went into their bye in Week 10 with a 7-2 record, rebounding from a disappointing loss to the Denver Broncos with a big win against the Miami Dolphins.
Since the bye, the Chiefs have hit a somewhat difficult part of the schedule. It started with a close 21-17 loss to the Eagles in Week 11, in a game with crucial drops by wide receivers that cost the Chiefs a potential win. Kansas City followed that up by beating the Las Vegas Raiders 31-17 after starting that game off slowly. Finally, the Chiefs lost to the Packers 27-19, another close game in which they fell behind early and were never fully able to get back into it.
Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl Prediction
Even with the Chiefs’ offense not looking like it has in years past, it is tough to count out their odds to win Super Bowl 2024. Throughout the season, the defense has kept games close, with Mahomes and Travis Kelce usually doing enough with the offense to get the win.
While that hasn’t exactly happened every game this season, especially over the last two losses, it is hard to bet against the Chiefs until they give us much more evidence to no longer back them. There are a lot of games to be played, and the Chiefs are still the team everyone is looking up to.
Questions of the Day
How has the Chiefs' recent performance affected their Super Bowl odds?
Given what the Chiefs have accomplished, the recent losses should not affect their Super Bowl odds unless they continue to look much worse in the remaining weeks.
What are the Chiefs' key potential playoff opponents?
Having already beaten the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins, two potential playoff teams in the AFC, and facing the Buffalo Bills in Week 14, the Baltimore Ravens are the one real contender the Chiefs won’t play.
The odds and predictions in the article are based on the time of writing and publication. They may differ as to when the actual event takes place.