Chiefs vs Buccaneers: Week 12 Betting Analysis

Game: Kansas City Chiefs (9-1) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4) Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Television: CBS

Betting Lines

Head-to-Head

The Chiefs and Buccaneers have only met three times dating back to 2008, but Tampa Bay has won all three meetings, including a narrow, 19-17 road win on Nov. 20 of 2016. Tampa Bay has also covered the spread in each of the last two meetings. But let it be known that the Chiefs didn’t have Patrick Mahomes under center for any of those previous meetings.

Are the Chiefs and Buccaneers hot or not when it comes to covering the NFL ATS spread heading into Week 12? After that, you can check out legendary defensive back Rod Woodson on Unfiltered!

Kansas City Chiefs

Betting Record

Next game: vs Broncos

Last Game

After losing to the division rival Raiders 40-32 in Week 5, Kansas City got some revenge by recording a thrilling 35-31 win over Las Vegas on Sunday as Patrick Mahomes passed for 348 yards with two TD passes and one interception.

Rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire rushed for 69 yards and two touchdowns while veteran back Le’Veon Bell added another rushing score in the win. Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelce had eight catches for 127 yards and one score while fellow Pro Bowler Tyreek Hill added 11 receptions for 127 yards and another score while helping the Chiefs improve to 5-0 over their last five games.

Stats Pack

Kansas City is ranked second in total offense, first in passing and 15th in rushing while leading the league in scoring (32.1 ppg).  Defensively, the Chiefs are ranked 15th overall, 8th against the pass, 27th against the run, but an impressive seventh in points allowed (21.4 ppg).

Trends

Patrick Mahomes is on fire, having tossed 14 TD passes and just one interception during Kansas City’s five-game winning streak. Tight end Travis Kelce has had three straight games of at least 109 receiving yards while scoring four touchdowns during the Chiefs’ five-game winning streak.

Injury Report

Sammy Watkins – WR

Byron Pringle – WR

Bopete Keyes – CB

Check out the latest NFL COVID-19 news right here and the NFL Week 12 Injury Odds Analysis right here!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Betting Record

Next game: vs Vikings

Last Game

The Buccaneers were on the wrong end of a humbling 27-24 loss against the LA Rams on Monday night that played out just as I predicted. Tom Brady was limited to 216 passing yards with two TD passes, but a pair of costly interceptions while the Bucs were held to just 42 rushing yards on 18 carries in the loss. Tampa Bay allowed Rams wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods to both top the 100-yard mark in receiving yards.

Stats Pack

The Buccaneers are ranked a modest 18th in total offense, 11th in passing, an uninspiring 26th in rushing, but sixth in scoring (29.1 ppg). Defensively, Tampa Bay is ranked an impressive sixth overall, 16th against the pass, a league-leading first against the run and 10th in points allowed (23.0 ppg).

Here is a look at the NFC playoff picture heading into Week 12!

Trends

Dare I say it, but Tom Brady looks like a 40-year-old quarterback after tossing five interceptions in two of Tampa Bay’s last three games while tossing multiple picks in two games against the Saints and Rams, both of which resulted in losses.

More importantly, Tampa Bay has gotten away from running the ball with Ronald Jones getting held to 34 rushing yards or less in four of the last five games while getting 10 carries or less in three of the last four games.

Injury Report

Ryan Smith – CB

AQ Shipley – C

Ali Marpet – G

Betting on the Game

This game looks like it could turn into a high-scoring affair with both teams putting up over 29.1 points per game. Check out the NFL Week 12 Power Rankings right here!

Moneyline

The Chiefs have gone 5-0 SU in their last five road games while Tampa Bay has gone 5-10 SU in its last 15 home games. The good news for the Bucs is that they’ve gone5-0 SU in their last five games against Kansas City.

Point Spread

The Chiefs have gone a blistering 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games while going 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games. Tampa Bay is 8-13-2 ATS in its last 23 games and 2-9-2 ATS in its last 13 home games. With the spread set at a manageable three points and Tampa Bay showing some real chinks in their armor, the Chiefs look like a team that should cover the chalk in this one!

Here is a look at the latest Super Bowl Odds

Over/Under

The Under is 4-0 in Kansas City’s last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record and 5-1 in the Chiefs last 6 games against a team with a winning record. The Over is 9-3 in Tampa Bay’s last 12 home games and 19-7 in the Buccaneers last 26 games overall. With the total set at what looks like a fairly high 56 points and Tampa Bay failing to top this figure in three of its last four games, the Under looks like the way to go, but just barely!