NFL Week 11 is full of exciting games with some of the league’s top contenders facing off. The one that caught my eye the most is between two of the top teams in each conference. The NFC’s No. 1 team heading into Week 11 is the (7-2) Green Bay Packers, who travel to take on the AFC South’s first-place team the (6-3) Indianapolis Colts.
Due to the division format, the Colts and Packers NFL matchup happens once every four years, rotating home and away each game. The rarity of the event of these storied organizations taking the field together makes it more meaningful. Especially when it is a pivotal regular-season matchup for both teams. The recent history for two of the oldest franchises has brought us the likes of Unitas vs Lombardi, Manning vs Farve, and Rodgers vs Luck.
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Colts vs Packers Week 11 Betting Advice: Game Information
When: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
Recent History – Historic Organizations
The Packers and Colts have a long history dating before 1953 when the Baltimore Colts officially joined the league — but let’s start there. The two teams would play each other twice a season until 1967 when they moved to one game a year.
After an early dominance by the Packers, QB Johnny Unitas and the Colts dominated the later parts of the 50s. Coach Lambeau and the Packers took control of the series in the early 60’s before the Colts reigned supreme in the later ’60s and throughout the ’70s.
Since the Colts moved to Indianapolis in 1984 the teams have been meeting less and seemingly the games are even better. In 2000 we had the first Fave-Manning matchup where the Packers won 26-24 at Lambeau Field.
Packers vs Colts – all-time record: 20-22-1 (1-0 postseason)
Colts 31, Packers 26 (11/6/2016)
The last time these teams battled was back in 2016 and the Colts still had QB Andrew Luck. The Colts returned the opening kick to the house and built a 31-13 lead. Indianapolis held off the Packers’ comeback and got out of Lambeau with a 31-26 victory. Aaron Rodgers threw for three TDs, but Luck converted late third-down attempts to seal the game.
Colts vs Packers Week 11 Betting Advice: Injury Report
The Packers seem to be getting healthy time for their matchup with one of the league’s best defenses. Green Bay’s WR Allen Lazard is likely set to return to the field for the first time since Week 3 when he tore an abdomen muscle. The Packers All-Pro LT David Bakhtiari returned last week against the Jacksonville Jaguars and RB Aaron Jones has been healthy for a few weeks.
Make sure to check the status of All-Pro WR Davante Adams. Adams, who is tied for the NFL’s lead in receiving TDs with nine, hurt his ankle in an NFL Week 10 matchup and has been limited in practice this week. Adams is a big part of making Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ offense nearly unstoppable and his presence would be greatly missed. His status will have a huge impact on this game.
The Colts are having some issues with injuries to their deep tight end position. TE’s Mo Alie-Cox, Jack Doyle, and Noah Togiai all are questionable. The Colts’ back end of their defense is also battling multiple injuries — four safeties on the NFL injury report.
Last week the Packers had two late defensive stops that helped them pull out a come-from-behind win over the (1-8) Jaguars. GB took the lead late in the fourth on an Adams TD grab from Rodgers. Rodgers had three total touchdowns as WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling had a career day. MVS caught four passes for 149 yards and a 78-yard touchdown. S Adrian Amos came away with an interception, while Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, and Rashan Gary all had sacks.
The Colts seem to have hit their stride last week with one of the most impressive wins of Week 10 in the NFL. Indianapolis captured their best win of the season and first place in the division when they beat their division rivals, the (6-3) Tennessee Titans, 34-17. The 34th overall pick in this year’s draft – WR Michael Pittman Jr. had his first 100-yard game as the Colts scored 21 straight second-half points to win the NFL Week 10 matchup in Tennessee.
You can find the results and stats of the last 10 games for each of the teams by clicking on the boxes below.
Matchup Edge – (6-3) Colts vs (7-2) Packers
- When the Colts have the ball there will be an average offense and average defense on the field
- When the Packers have the ball there will be a top-ranked offense and a top-ranked defense lining up against each other
Let’s look at how these teams matchup using the numbers below.
Third-down efficiency is going to be a big story in this game.
GB ranks No. 4 with a 48.18% 3rd down-conversion rate — IND ranks No. 30 with an average 37.50%.
Green Bay’s Keys to Victory
Rodgers will need to do a good job mixing up the runs and passes on early downs to keep his offense from facing thirds-and-longs. Rodger earlier this week said about the Colts’ defense, “They make you go the distance, make you earn it. They’ve been tough against the run and pass, I believe they’re top five in both categories.” Rodgers enters the game with the NFL’s highest passer rating of 116.4, but does not want DE DeForest Buckner and the rest of the Colts’ front-seven pinning their ears back on obvious passing downs. The Colts have not faced a top-six rated passer yet this season and currently rank first in opposing QB passer rating (78.9).
Forcing QB Philip Rivers to make mistakes.
DE Za’Darius Smith and DL Kenny Clark will need to be able to beat the Colts’ strong offensive line to get pressure on Philip Rivers. Rivers has thrown 10 TDs to go with his 7 INTs. The Packers have not been able to rush the passer with much efficiency this year (14.6% pressure rate – NFL third worse). Green Bay’s defense must capitalize on their opportunities of creating turnovers as they cannot expect Aaron Rodgers and the offense to bail them out each week if they want to stay atop the NFC.
Taking away RB Nyheim Hines.
Green Bay must make Rivers throw the ball down the field to beat them. Packers’ LB Christian Kirksey must take away Rivers’ dump-down specialist, RB Nyheim Hines, who is coming off of a 17-touch performance (most in career) last week against the Titans, where he eclipsed the 100 total-yards mark. Hine has been good at making defenders miss by forcing a total of seven miss-tackles just as a receiver. The Packers need to make sure to tackle well in the open field.
Indianapolis’ Keys to Victory
Taking away RB Aaron Jones and the Packers’ rushing attack
The Colts’ defense cannot let the Packers’ offense establish the run. If Jones is able to pick up chunk yardage, then Rodgers can open up the whole playbook and keep the Colts on their heels. The Colts have one of the best linebackers in the game in ALL-Pro second-year LB Darius Leonard — who is more than up to the challenge. Leonard needs to make an impact in this game and it starts with not letting Aaron Jones get going.
Pressuring Aaron Rodgers
Green Bay’s coaching staff will do their best to move the pocket and use play-action to give Rodgers extra throwing time. Ultimately it will come down to the one-on-one matches up front and this game has two of the best on a collision course. The NFL’s seven-highest graded interior lineman is Colts DE DeForest Buckner who will be lined up over top of the highest-graded center – Packers’ C Corey Linsley. Formerly on the San Francisco 49ers Buckner has gotten the best of Linsley in their two previous meetings by recording six pressures and five stops.
Controlling the Ball
The Colts’ offense needs to take what the defense gives them each series. Rivers will need to take some shots downfield, but more importantly the Colts will need to find success on runs and short passes. The Colts have only converted on 42-of-112 3rd-down attempts this season – (42 made 3rd downs is 28th in the NFL). Coach Frank Reich needs to stay creative in their third-down play calls and Rivers needs to execute.
Coach T’s Colts vs Packers Week 11 Betting Advice
|Green Bay Packers||+2 -110||
|Indianapolis Colts||-2 -110||
The Packers opened the game as favorites on most sportsbooks and they quickly fell to underdogs. To me, the health of DeVante Adams depends on how I would bet this game. I possibly see the Colts winning this game if Adams does not play. But honestly, I think Rodgers and the Packers find ways to move the ball and score TDs throughout the game which will be too much for Rivers and the Colts to overcome.
- I like the +110 moneyline on the Packers winning this game — especially with Adams in the lineup.
- The Packer 24½ team total seems low and I like the over at -115 odds.
- The Colts team total of 27 seems a bit high and is receiving -120 odds for the under.
- Over is 9-1 in the Packers last 10 games as a road underdog of 0.5-3.0. Take the Over.
Coach T’s Pick: Packers 30, Colts 24