Okay, BetUS NFL online betting nation, Tua Tagovailoa, and the streaking Miami Dolphins will look to extend their winning ways when they hit the road to take on Drew Lock and the struggling Denver Broncos on Sunday.
The surging Dolphins have won five straight and are the hottest ATS team in the league while Denver will look to get the big upset at home in order to snap a modest two-game skid. With these two AFC counterparts heading in polar opposite directions, let’s find out which team is offering the best value against the Week 11 NFL odds for this matchup.
| Game: Miami Dolphins (6-3) vs Denver Broncos (3-6) Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver Time: 4:05 p.m. ET Television: CBS |
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Betting Lines
| Team | Point Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under | Team Total |
| Dolphins | OFF | OFF | ||
| Broncos | OFF | OFF |
Head-to-Head
These teams might reside in the same conference but they meet once every three years. With that said, The Dolphins and Broncos have split the last four meetings dating to 2008 with Miami coming out on top 35-9 the last time they met on Dec. 3, 2017. Miami has covered the spread in three of the last four. Check out Barry Barger’s Week 11 NFL Power Rankings!
While the underdog has gone 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings, the road team in this AFC rivalry has gone 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Miami has gone a near-perfect 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and an unblemished 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Denver.
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Miami Dolphins
Betting Record
| Team | Record | ATS | ATS Home | ATS Away | ATS Fave | ATS Dog | O/U |
| Dolphins | 6-3 | 7-2 | 4-1 | 3-1 | 2-0 | 5-2 | 4-5 |
Next game: at Jets
Last Game
Miami jumped to a quick 14-0 lead after one quarter en route to a 29-21 win over the LA Chargers in Week 10 as Tua Tagovailoa completed 15-of-25 passes for 169 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Unheralded running back Salvon Ahmed rushed for 85 yards and one score on 21 carries while Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard picked off Chargers rookie quarterback Justin Herbert.
Stats Pack
Miami is ranked an uninspiring 29th in total offense, 26th in passing, 28th in rushing but an encouraging ninth in scoring (27.9 ppg). Defensively, the Fins are ranked 19th overall, 19th against the pass, 22nd against the run, but a stellar fifth in points allowed (20.2 ppg).
Trends
In his first three career starts, Tua Tagovailoa has thrown five TD passes, but what makes him better is he doesn’t turn the ball. The former Alabama star has completed at least 60% of his passes in each of the last two games while tossing a pair of TD passes and no picks. Former University of Washington running back Salvon Ahmed is making a case to become the unquestioned starter by averaging 4.7 yards per carry over the last two games while rushing for 123 yards and one score.
Injury Report
Matt Breida – RB
Kyle Van Noy – LB
Christian Wilkins – DT
Myles Gaskin – RB
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Denver Broncos
Betting Record
| Team | Record | ATS | ATS Home | ATS Away | ATS Fave | ATS Dog | O/U |
| Broncos | 3-6 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 3-2 | 0-0 | 5-4 | 5-4 |
Next game: vs Saints
Last Game
Denver has dropped two straight and three of four, including an embarrassing 37-12 smackdown loss at the hands of the AFC West rival Raiders on Sunday. Quarterback Drew Lock was limited to just 23-of-47 passing with one touchdown and a whopping four interceptions. The Broncos’ defense gave up 112 rushing yards and one score to Vegas running back Josh Jacobs and 81 rushing yards and another score to running back Devontae Booker in the loss.
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Stats Pack
The Broncos are ranked 23rd in total offense, 30th in passing, fifth in rushing, and 18th in scoring (24.0 ppg. Defensively, Denver is ranked 17th overall, 14th against the pass, 23rd against the run, and 27th in points allowed (28.2 ppg).
Trends
Lock has been consistently awful recently by throwing at least one interception in five straight games while tossing two or more picks in three of those contests and 10 interceptions overall.
Injury Report
Drew Lock – QB
Mark Barron – LB
Levante Bellamy – RB
Betting on the Game
The Broncos
Moneyline
The Broncos struggle to score mightily, having been limited to 18 points or less in three of their last five games while Miami’s defense has limited the opposition to 17 points or less three times over its five-game winning streak.
Point Spread
The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS and SU win while going 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Miami is also 5-1 ATS in its last six games against a team with a losing record, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, and a bankroll-boosting 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
Still, the Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight-up loss, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against their AFC counterparts.
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Over/Under
The Over is 6-1 in Miami’s last 7 road games against a team with a losing home record and 6-2 in the Dolphin’s last 8 games against a team with a losing record. The Over is 5-2 in Denver’s last 7 games following a straight-up loss, but the Under is 21-9-1 in the Bronco’s last 31 games against their AFC rivals and 11-5-1 in the Bronco’s last 17 games against a team with a winning record.
