Dolphins vs Jets: Week 12 Betting Analysis

Betting Lines

Head-to-Head

The Dolphins shut out the Jets 24-0 in their Week 6 matchup. Jets backup QB Joe Flacco completed only 21 of 44 passes for 186 yards and an interception. Meanwhile, Ryan Fitzpatrick threw three touchdown passes and two interceptions for the Dolphins. If Sam Darnold is healthy, he will be the Jet’s QB this weekend. Tua Tagovailoa has since taken over starting duties for the Dolphins. Miami is 5-1 in its last six games overall, and against the Jets.

Miami Dolphins

Betting Record

Next game: vs Bengals

Last Game

QB Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense couldn’t get much going, as they fell 20-13 to the Denver Broncos. Tagovailoa was benched in the fourth quarter after an 11 of 20 performance with 83 yards, a touchdown and six sacks. Ryan Fitzpatrick managed to top Tagovailoa’s passing yards total in one quarter, as he completed 12 of 18 passes for 117 yards with an interception. WR Devante Parker caught six passes for 61 yards with a touchdown in the game.

Tagovailoa will remain the starter going forward, according to Dolphins coach Brian Flores.

While the Dolphins didn’t get much from their rookie QB, they also got nearly nothing from their running game. Salvon Ahmed had 43 yards on 12 carries and the Dolphins totaled 56 rushing yards. RB Myles Gaskin is eligible to come off of IR this week and it’ll be a big boost if they get him back. The Dolphins allowed 189 rushing yards and 459 total yards to the Broncos, in a disappointing all-around performance.

Stats Pack

The Dolphins are a bit of an enigma. They rank 29th in total yards, 26th in passing yards, and 30th in rushing yards. But, they’re 14th in points per game. Their defensive yardage numbers aren’t great either. They rank 21st in opponent yards per game, 20th in opponent passing yards, and 27th in opponent rushing yards. Despite that, they’ve held opponents to only 20.4 points per game, which is the fourth-best mark in the league. They’re a team with clear limitations, but they have found ways to win as they’ve compiled a 6-4 record this season.

Trends

It’s clear that Tua is the Dolphin’s QB of the future. While he hasn’t been terrible, his play has been mostly uninspiring. Before the Week 11 game, he was only averaging 170 yards per start. He was sacked more than half as many times as he completed passes and only managed 83 yards against the Broncos. Tagovailoa is yet to throw an interception and has thrown six touchdown passes. It’ll take time for Tua to find his footing in the NFL. He is averaging 6.2 yards per attempt while journeyman backup Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging 7.7 yards per attempt.

New York Jets

Betting Record

 Next game: vs Raiders

Last Game

The Jets lost their 10th straight game to open the 2020 season as they fell to the Chargers, 34-28. The Jets did well against the run, as they held the Chargers to 29 yards on 26 attempts. However, Chargers rookie QB Justin Herbert destroyed them. Herbert completed 37 of 49 passes for a career-high 366 yards, along with three touchdown passes. Chargers WR Keenan Allen caught 16 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown.

The Jets did manage to score 28 points, which is a feat for them. Joe Flacco completed 15 of 30 passes for 205 yards and threw two touchdown passes and a pick-six. RB Frank Gore and La’Mical Perine both added scores on the ground. WR Denzel Mims led the Jets in receiving yards with 71 on three receptions.

Stats Pack

The Jets rank last in the NFL in points per game, yards per game, and passing yards per game.  They’re also second to last in opponent points per game, 30th in opponent passing yards, and 28th in opponent total yards. They’ve been elite at stopping the run, as they’re only allowing 3.8 yards per carry, which is fifth in the league.

Trends

The 55 points the Jets have scored in their last two games is by far the most they’ve scored in any two-game period this season. Flacco has thrown five TD passes in that span. The Jets were only averaging 0.5 TD passes per game before their Week 9 matchup with the Pats

Betting on the Game

Point Spread: Dolphins -7

The Dolphins have won five of their last six games ATS. Meanwhile, the Jets lost their first six games ATS. Since, they’ve compiled a 3-1 record ATS, including covering in their last two games. The Dolphins covered in their Week 6 matchup with the Jets and they’re 3-2 ATS on the road. The Jets are 2-3 ATS at home.

Moneyline: Dolphins -290 | Jets +240

Miami won the Week 6 matchup handily and these teams split their 2019 meetings. The Dolphins have won five of the last six meetings. Sam Darnold is slated to practice on Wednesday which could mean he will return for Sunday’s game. He’s 1-3 in his career against the Dolphins. This will be Tua’s first career start against the Jets, he has a 3-1 record as a starter. The implied probability from the odds in the sportsbook for the Jets to pick up their first win is 29.4 percent.

Over/Under: 44½ Points

The Dolphins shut out the Jets in their first meeting this season. However, the Jets offense has scored more points recently. They’re averaging 14.9 points per game this season and 27.5 PPG in their last two games. Before only scoring 13 points against the Broncos, the Dolphins averaged 31.6 points per game on their five-game winning streak.

If Miami gets RB Myles Gaskin back, its run game will receive a big boost. The total has gone under in four of the last six Jets games but has notably gone over in the last two. The total has gone over in three of Miami’s last five games.