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Easy Schedule vs. Tough Division – How Should You Bet on the Saints?

It is hard to tell what the New Orleans Saints have been since Sean Payton left at the end of the 2021 season. His defensive coordinator, Dennis Allen, took over, and a franchise that has gotten used to success has yet to make the playoffs since. NFL lines are not favoring them to make the playoffs in 2024-25, with their betting odds set at -215 to miss out for the third straight season.

However, the Saints are still an exciting team. They went 9-8 last season, the same record as the NFC South champions, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, almost making the playoffs.

Easy Schedule vs. Tough Division – How Should You Bet on the Saints?
Derek Carr #4 of the New Orleans Saints - Chris Graythen/Getty Images

In the offseason, most of the additions came on the defensive end with the signings of Willie Gay Jr. and Chase Young, plus the drafting of Kool-Aid McKinstry, while the Saints’ offense stayed the same. Derek Carr was solid at quarterback last season, while Chris Olave continued to prove to be a reliable receiving option. Alvin Kamara didn’t have a full season, which showed with a down year. ​​

There is still some talent on this roster, and with an easy schedule, the Saints could have a decent season. The main issue is that the top teams in the NFC South either got better or stayed the same, hurting the Saints’ chances of winning the division and making the playoffs.

 

 

Toughest Stretch At the Start

On the surface, the Saints’ schedule is manageable. They have a lot of winnable games, which they will have to capitalize on, but there are still some tough stretches. Weeks 2 through 6 are one of those tough stretches.

However, Week 1 is one of the easier matchups. They will face the Carolina Panthers, the worst roster in the NFC South, arguably the league. This game will also be played in New Orleans, leading to the Saints being 5-point favorites at the sportsbook. The game could be tricky because it’s Week 1, but Carr and the offense should have more than enough talent to win it.

The next two games skyrocket in difficulty. The Saints will face the Dallas Cowboys and then host the Philadelphia Eagles. Both NFC East teams have a chance of winning their division while also having two of the top rosters in the league. The Saints will certainly not be favored in these games.

However, Week 4 is the Saints’ first real test. They will face the Atlanta Falcons, who had a big offseason, making them the frontrunners to win the NFC South. The Saints will also be on the road, which will make things difficult. A win could go a long way in the division standings, but against a better roster, the Saints might not be favored on the road.

Following that, the Saints face the Kansas City Chiefs, who are on the hunt for their third straight Super Bowl. Again, it’s safe to say the Saints don’t have much of a chance in this game. This brutal stretch finishes with the Buccaneers in Week 6. Tampa Bay did not try to improve this offseason and seems fine just running it back. That makes sense, given they won the division and a playoff game last season. The Saints hosting this game could help, but it’s still a tough win for them.

 

Toss-Up Games Before Bye Week

This stretch from Week 7 to the Saints’ bye in Week 12 will be crucial for the team’s season. It would be great if they could get through the first six weeks with three wins, but if they don’t, they will have to pick up some wins in this stretch.

Week 7 starts with a good game, as Sean Payton returns to New Orleans as the Denver Broncos head coach. Given Payton’s knowledge of the Saints, this game does seem like a toss-up, but he will likely have a rookie starting quarterback under center. Facing an inexperienced quarterback could help the Saints win on their home field.

Following that, the Saints will travel to face the Los Angeles Chargers. This is once again a toss-up game. While the Chargers have a new coach in Jim Harbaugh, Week 8 is enough time for the team to get used to him. They also have an elite quarterback under center, and the Saints do not. Then, the Saints go on the road against the Panthers, and they should again be able to out-talent their division rival.

The final two games before the bye week could be big season-defining matchups. The first is in Week 10 at home against the Falcons. With the Saints being the home team, they could have a legitimate chance of winning the game, with talent on each team’s roster not that far apart. Then, in Week 11, the Saints face the Cleveland Browns. This is not much of a toss-up, with the talent advantage going to the Browns, who made the playoffs last season, but because the game is in New Orleans, that levels the playing field slightly.

 

 

Mix Of Playoff and Rebuilding Teams

The final six games of the Saints’ season are also hard to predict and all over the place. They will face three teams that made the playoffs last season and three that were far from making it.

The three teams that did not make the playoffs are the New York Giants (Week 14), the Washington Commanders (Week 15), and the Las Vegas Raiders (Week 17).

The games against the playoff teams are where things get more complicated. The Saints will face the Los Angeles Rams (Week 13) and Green Bay Packers (Week 16). The Packers won a playoff game last season, but both teams got better this offseason and likely have to make the playoffs through the Wild Card, making a victory over the Saints very important for them.

Finally, in Week 17, the Saints will face the Buccaneers. This division game has a chance to decide the NFC South winner. This game will be played on the road, making it a challenging game for the Saints.

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Saints Season Betting Prediction

Given that the Buccaneers are still a good team and the Falcons got better this offseason, it makes sense that the Saints have the third-best betting line (+350) to win the division. But with the Saints’ seemingly weak schedule, predicting their win total is much more complicated. Their line is set at 7½, with odds set at -120 of them hitting the over. Eight wins seem possible because of the schedule, but the playoffs don’t seem likely, with a few tough games.

Furthermore, many games could go either way, only making the Saints a harder team to select for futures bets.

 

 

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

 

Questions Of The Day

What is the best bet on the Saints in 2024?


Because the Saints don’t have a great chance of winning the NFC South or making the playoffs, the win total is the best option to consider. Their line is set at 7½, with odds at -120 for them to hit the over.

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