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Falcons vs Chiefs: Week 16 Game Analysis

The streaking Kansas City Chiefs look to take care of business at home when they play host to the Atlanta Falcons in a Week 16 interconference matchup of teams heading in polar opposite directions. With two weeks of regular-season action remaining, let’s find out who is offering the best sportsbook betting value in Falcons vs Chiefs betting.

NFL online betting enthusiasts have watched in horror as Atlanta has gone belly up over the last month and has nothing left to play for except pride. Kansas City is the hottest team in the league and will be looking to take another step toward locking down the top seed in the AFC playoffs by winning this matchup.

David Amerson of KC makes an interception in the end zone but landed out of bounds. Here's our Falcons vs Chiefs betting news
Scott Cunningham/Getty Images/AFP
  • Game: Falcons (4-10) vs Chiefs (13-1)
  • Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • Television: FOX

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Falcons vs Chiefs Betting Lines

Team Point Spread Moneyline Over/Under Team Total
      Falcons   +11 OFF 53 21
Chiefs   -11 OFF 53 31½

Head-to-Head

The Falcons and Chiefs have met three times since 2008. Atlanta won two straight until Kansas City recorded a 29-28 road win the last time they met on Dec. 4, 2016.

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Atlanta Falcons

Betting Record

Team Record ATS Home ATS Away ATS Fave ATS Dog ATS O/U
Falcons

  4-10

6-8 3-5 3-3 1-4 5-4 6-8

Next game: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last Game

After suffering a pair of epic collapses in Weeks 2 and 3 against Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears, the Falcons suffered another disappointing collapse by losing to Tampa Bay 31-27 on Sunday after leading 17-0 at the half and 24-21 after three quarters.

Matt Ryan passed for 356 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions, but Atlanta allowed Tom Brady to pass for a whopping 390 yards and two TDs while giving up two rushing scores to Leonard Fournette.

Stats Pack

Atlanta is ranked 14th in total offense and a stellar fourth in passing but also ranks a dismal 27th in rushing and a modest 15th in scoring (25.4 ppg). Defensively, the Falcons are ranked a discouraging 28th overall, 31st against the pass, ninth against the run, and 18th in points allowed (25.2 ppg).

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The Falcons became the first team in NFL history to lose back-to-back games leading by 15 or more points in the final quarter earlier in the season. Atlanta lost a double-digit lead for the third time this season on Sunday.

Injury Report

  • James Carpenter – G
  • Qadree Ollison – RB
  • Ricardo Allen – S
  • Julio Jones – WR
  • Marlon Davidson – DT

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Kansas City Chiefs

Betting Record

Team Record ATS Home ATS Away ATS Fave ATS Dog ATS O/U
Raiders

  13-1

6-7-1

3-3

3-4-1

5-7-1 1-0 7-7

Next game: vs  Los Angeles Chargers

Last Game

The Chiefs got past the Saints 32-29 on as Patrick Mahomes passed for 254 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions while Le’Veon Bell added 62 rushing yards and another score. Tyreke Hill, Travis Kelce, and Mecole Hardman added touchdown catches. Mahomes was sacked four times and lost a fumble, but the Chiefs defense picked off Drew Brees once and held Alvin Kamara to a modest 54 rushing yards to get the win.

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Stats Pack

Kansas City leads the league in total offense while ranking first in passing, 14th in rushing and second in scoring (31.1 ppg). Defensively, the Chiefs are ranked 15th overall, 10th against the pass, 21st against the run, but an encouraging eighth in points allowed (22.1 ppg).

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Mahomes has thrown at least three touchdown passes four times in Kansas City’s last six games. Le’Veon Bell has 83 rushing yards and one touchdown on 17 carries over his last two games.

Injury Report

  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire – RB
  • Emmanuel Smith – LB
  • Damien Wilson – LB
  • Mike Remmers – OL
  • Darwin Thompson – RB

Falcons vs Chiefs Betting on the Game

The Falcons have a bad habit of collapsing like a house of cards, generally after taking a double-digit lead. Kansas City can put 30 points on the board in their collective sleep.

Moneyline

The Falcons have dropped three of four while going 2-6 SU in their last nine meetings against Kansas City. Ironically, Atlanta has managed to go a blistering 13-4 SU in its last 17 games against teams from the AFC. The Chiefs have won nine straight games while going a scorching 12-1 SU over their last 13 home games.

Point Spread

Atlanta has gone a surprising 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games but an awful 3-15 ATS in its last 18 games against teams from the AFC. Kansas City has struggled mightily in going 0-5-1 ATS over their last six games and 3-6 ATS in their last Week 16 matchups, but the Chiefs are also a stellar 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games overall.

Over/Under

The Over/Under total might look a bit high here, but Kansas City has topped their O/U figure four times in their last six games and the Total is 7-3 O/U in the Chiefs’ last 10 games against teams from the NFC. I’m not expecting Atlanta’s often non-existent to stop Kansas City’s high-powered offense very often even though the Falcons should be good for at least 21 points in this Week 16 NFL matchup.

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