Football Betting: Handicapping the AFC South
The AFC South race is going to include the haves and the have-nots. The Indianapolis Colts are currently ahead of defending division champion Tennessee according to the Las Vegas odds. Jacksonville is well back and Houston might need a GPS unit to find the division leaders.
There will be some talented rookies to keep an eye on with Jacksonville having the No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick for the second season in a row and Houston having two selections in the top half of the first round.
If you love to watch dynamic running backs, this is the division for you. Jonathan Taylor of the Colts is listed by the NFL betting lines with the best odds (+450) to lead the NFL in rushing while Tennessee’s Derrick Henry is close behind at +550.
The Colts (+2500) are tied for seventh among AFC teams in the odds to win the Super Bowl with the Titans (+3000) coming in eighth.
BetUS Odds to Win AFC South
- Indianapolis Colts -125
- Tennessee Titans +155
- Jacksonville Jaguars +700
- Houston Texans +25000
Indianapolis Colts
Another year, another quarterback has come in to try to lead the Colts to that next step. The reunion between head coach Frank Reich and quarterback Carson Wentz did not go as well as expected so Wentz was shipped off to Washington and veteran Matt Ryan was acquired from Atlanta.
Ryan won’t be asked to fill the air with footballs as he did when he was with the Falcons with the NFL’s leading rusher Jonathan Taylor back. Alec Pierce was drafted to join Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell at receiver . Tight end Jelani Woods and offensive tackle Bernhard Raimann could also play key roles as rookies.
Quenton Nelson, Braden Smith and Ryan Kelly will form the foundation of the offensive line.
The Colts traded for defensive end Yannick Ngakoue while second-year pro Kwity Paye is another player who could improve the pass rush for the Colts. Darius Leonard and Bobby Okereke give the Colts a pair of playmaking linebackers.
Top 2, not 2. 😏 https://t.co/2HKgf0DtUu pic.twitter.com/JbUTzDvvvV
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) June 30, 2022
Stephon Gilmore was brought in to help in pass coverage and play across from Kenny Moore.
Having safety Julian Blackmon for more than six games will be a huge help. Indianapolis will need to replace Khari Willis and George Odum.
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is coming off a 12-5 season and that included a 5-1 mark in division play. However, that isn’t enough for the Titans to be favored to repeat as AFC South champions.
With the way Ryan Tannehill played in the playoff loss to Cincinnati, there are obvious questions about how much longer he will be leading the offense. Things will look much different following the trade of star receiver A.J. Brown to Philadelphia. Tannehill had 17 interceptions in 18 games counting the playoffs and that was with Brown. Rookie Treylon Burks has struggled to get on the field during rookie camp and it is asking a lot to expect him to be Brown.
A healthy Henry gives Tennessee one of the top players in the NFL. He might have made a run at a 2,000-yard season if he played the entire season.
The drafting of quarterback Malik Willis in the third round could signal a changing of the guard, although it probably won’t happen this season. Receiver Kyle Phillips and offensive lineman Nicholas Petit-Frere figure to see more playing time as rookies.
The Titans return their top five tacklers. That includes Harold Landry, who is coming off a 12-sack season, leading tackler Kevin Byard, and linebacker David Long Jr. The Titans did lose linebackers Rashaan Evans and Jayon Brown. Second-round pick Roger McCreary will help in the secondary.
Tennessee was sixth in the NFL in scoring defense a season ago and could be one of the top defenses once again.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville had the No. 1 overall pick in each of the last two seasons. Trevor Lawrence ranked 30th among players with at least 200 passing attempts in quarterback rating as a rookie. That was not what was expected when one of the most touted quarterback prospects in recent memory went first overall in 2021. The Jaguars turned to defense by taking former Georgia star Travon Walker with the top pick this year.
The NFL predictions have Walker as one of the current leaders in the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds.
Jacksonville got running back Travis Etienne back after an injury forced him to miss his rookie season. Along with former 1,000-yard rusher James Robinson, there is talent in the backfield. When it comes to the receiver position, that is a different story. D.J. Chark is now in Detroit.
Christian Kirk was brought in from Arizona. Third-year receiver Laviska Shenault appears ready to take on a large role. Former New York Giant standout Evan Engram joins Dan Arnold at tight end.
Guard Brandon Scherff comes in from Washington and center Luke Fortner was a third-round pick.
There are more questions than answers on defense.
The addition of Foye Oluokun, the NFL’s leading tackler in 2021, at linebacker will help. Add in Walker, fellow first-round pick Devin Lloyd and Chad Muma should contribute as rookies.
Josh Allen should be contributing more than 10 sacks over the last two seasons. Foley Fatukasi will team with Malcom Brown as the Jaguars continue to try to upgrade the interior of the defensive line.
Andrew Wingard, Tyson Campbell and Shaquill Griffin return to lead the secondary.
Houston Texans
There is nowhere to go but up for the Texans. The NFL predictions list 31 teams ahead of Houston in the odds to win the Super Bowl. The trade that sent embattled former franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson could be paying dividends for years to come. Davis Mills was a pleasant surprise as a rookie after Watson was sidelined due to his legal issues.
After taking Mills in the third round, there is the possibility that the Texans found their top running back (Dameon Piece) in the fourth round.
The group of receivers is pretty underwhelming. Brandin Cooks leads the way, and second-year wide receiver Nico Collins and tight end Brevin Jordan figure to play larger roles. Former Alabama star John Metchie was a second-round pick.
A.J. Cann was signed as a free agent and Kenyon Green was a first-round pick as Houston looks to upgrade the interior of their offensive line. Laremy Tunsil returns as the left tackle but the right tackle spot is still a work in progress.
Jonathan Greenard has the potential to record double-digit sacks. Only Pittsburgh allowed more rushing yards during the 2021 season than Houston did so there is work to be done there. Russ Blacklock, Maliek Collins, and Roy Lopez form a solid rotation on the interior of the defensive line.
Linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hall led Houston with 108 tackles but that position needs a lot of work.
Rookies Derek Stingley Jr. and Jalen Pitre will be asked to play quite a bit in the secondary as rookies. Having two cornerbacks with more than 50 solo tackles is not a good sign. The hope is that Desmond King and Tavierre Thomas won’t be quite as busy in 2022 as they were in 2021.
Something to keep in mind for those who bet online, Houston covered in three of its last four games a season ago.
