Home Field Crucial in AFC Playoffs With Bills, Steelers, Chargers in Contention
Huge Upsets, Classic Matchups, and a No. 1 Seed Up for Grabs – the NFL Always Delivers
The AFC Battle Is Hotter Than Ever
Sunday was a significant NFL news day for the 2024 AFC playoff race, and the predominant theme was that the home team won every pivotal game. The Steelers edged out their rivals from Baltimore, the Bills ended Kansas City’s 15-game winning streak, and the Chargers made strides in the wild card by dropping the Bengals to 4-7.
The week even started Thursday with the Eagles defending their home field against the Commanders in the first-place NFC East battle. But winning at home in the NFC isn’t nearly as important as the AFC this year.
Just consider these results in the biggest AFC games so far:
- Week 1: Chiefs defeated Ravens (27-20) in Kansas City.
- Week 4: Ravens defeated Bills (35-10) in Baltimore.
- Week 5: Texans defeated Bills (23-20) in Houston.
- Week 11: Steelers defeated Ravens (18-16) in Pittsburgh; Bills defeated Chiefs (30-21) in Buffalo.
That’s 5-0 for the home teams. If you look at all 31 games this season between teams who currently have winning records, the home team is 18-13 (.581), which sounds like a classic home-field advantage.
But if you break it down by conference, then AFC home teams are 11-4 (.733) and NFC home teams are only 7-9 (.438) against winning teams. Half of the AFC losses are by Denver, a team that may be the No. 7 seed at best come January.
GOOD MORNING, IT’S DUB DAY! 🥳 pic.twitter.com/4QrgNiXfGD
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) November 18, 2024
Many of the big AFC games are completed, but the NFL schedule has some pivotal ones in Weeks 16-17 when the Chiefs, Texans, Ravens, and Steelers will have games with each other that Saturday and Wednesday. The Steelers host the Chiefs on Christmas.
It’s Still Better to Be Home
The NFL rumor is home-field advantage isn’t what it used to be. It’s true that the home team barely wins 53% of the time since 2019, the lowest 6-year average since the 1970 merger. It used to be around 57-58% for a long time.
But while the Chiefs were able to win close games in Buffalo and Baltimore last postseason on their way to another Super Bowl, you know they’d rather be at home for those NFL games. Despite the loss, the 9-1 Chiefs are still favored to finish with the top seed.
But Sunday’s results do show a very interesting AFC picture where the Steelers (8-2) could host the Ravens (7-4) in the 6-3 wild card game, and Baltimore is 1-8 against their rivals since 2020. That’s a bad matchup for Lamar Jackson, who has enough playoff demons to begin with.
Sack 23: TJ Watt 🔥🔥 https://t.co/LokZ5zucC6 pic.twitter.com/2FYbPFrKfU
— Mr Unlimmmited (@chris_ferland) November 17, 2024
Playing the Odds
Buffalo (9-2) should feel content with a No. 2 seed as hosting a lowly No. 7 seed (Denver?) and not having to go to Pittsburgh/Baltimore/Houston would be ideal. They know they can play well in Arrowhead too even if they haven’t won a playoff game there yet.
FINAL: The @BuffaloBills knock off the undefeated Chiefs! #KCvsBUF pic.twitter.com/Li2yN2wahk
— NFL (@NFL) November 18, 2024
The Chiefs’ three-peat could start with a divisional game against the Texans-Chargers winner unless Baltimore comes through. Again, Buffalo having a Denver/Pittsburgh route at home to the AFC Championship Game is a nice prize if Sunday’s big win doesn’t lead to a No. 1 seed.
The Bills still have to go to Detroit (Week 15), so a top two seed isn’t a lock. But Buffalo was definitely Sunday’s biggest winner as the odds of going back to the venue they lost 35-10 are small.
