Both the Chiefs and Bills were undefeated entering Week 5, and each of them have now suffered their first loss. Let’s have a look at this matchup in our Chiefs vs Bills Week 6 analysis.
Game: Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) at Buffalo Bills (4-1)
Location: Ralph Wilson Stadium
Time: Monday, Oct. 19 at 5:00 p.m. ET
Television: FOX, NFLN
Chiefs vs Bills Week 6 Analysis: Betting Lines
|Team||Point Spread||Moneyline||Over/ Under||Team Total|
|Chiefs||-3 ½||-190||57 ½||30 ½|
|Bills||+3 ½||+165||57 ½||27|
The Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills are still favored to win their respective divisions, but the door has been opened a crack. Our sportsbook lists the Chiefs’ moneyline at -900, while the Bills’ odds to win the division are showing at -210.
Current NFL odds project the Chiefs as more likely than the Bills to bounce back with a win this week. After starting the season 4-0, Buffalo quickly finds itself playing the role of home dogs vs Kansas City. This battle between AFC heavyweights might be a sneak preview of the Conference Championship game, so put your helmets on.
KC (+200) is currently favored to win the AFC, but Buffalo (+800) also has solid odds to win the conference. The outcome of this marquee MNF matchup will create a ripple effect throughout the NFL, and both squads will be rabid. This is what betting on the NFL is all about! Let’s dive into this Chiefs at Bills matchup, so we can use the current trends and statistics to our advantage.
Kansas City Chiefs
|Team||Record||ATS||Home ATS||Away ATS||Fave ATS||O/U|
vs Las Vegas Raiders
The mighty Chiefs were blindsided at home in Week 5, losing to the upstart Raiders by a score of 40-32. Kansas City hadn’t lost a game since November of last year, and Las Vegas strolled into Arrowhead Stadium and snatched the Chiefs’ lunch. Perhaps KC made the mistake of looking past the Raiders, thinking ahead to this matchup in Buffalo.
In any case, the Chiefs’ pride was hijacked by a hungry Raiders squad that played possessed. Las Vegas racked up nearly 500 yards of total offense and dominated time of possession by more than 10 minutes. The Raiders’ D seemingly came out of nowhere, harassing Patrick Mahomes incessantly.
Mahomes was pressured 16 times vs the Raiders, the second-most pressures he’s had to deal with in his career. Magic Mahomes still threw for 340 yards and accounted for three Chiefs touchdowns, but he misfired on 21 passes. The 22-for-43 passing statline was subpar for Mahomes, as was his 83.5 quarterback rating.
Kansas City’s running game was held in check, stifled by an aggressive Las Vegas defense. The Bills’ run D is much stingier than the Raiders’, so the Chiefs will likely have to carve a path to victory through the air on Monday night.
|Team||Record||ATS||Home ATS||Away ATS||Dog ATS||O/U|
Next game: at New York Jets
At Tennessee Titans
The Buffalo Bills were more or less decimated by the Titans at LP Field Tuesday night. Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill tallied four total touchdowns, throwing for three and running one in. RB Derrick Henry abused the Bills’ defenders on each run, bashing his way to the end zone twice himself. The Titans never turned the ball over.
Conversely, Buffalo shot itself in the foot three times by committing costly turnovers against a stout Titans’ D. QB Josh Allen threw for 263 yards and two scores, hitting on 26-of-41 passes while getting picked off twice. Allen maintained his connection with WR Stefon Diggs, who caught 10 balls for 106 yards but did not hit paydirt.
Bills’ RB Devin Singletary struggled to make many positive gains, averaging only 2.3 yards per carry. T.J. Yeldon performed much better than Singeltary did in this game, rushing for 52 yards on 7 carries, producing 7.4 YPC. Yeldon also caught a 22-yard touchdown pass, managing to outshine Singeltary on both fronts.
Statistically, the Bills performed similarly to the Titans, with the exception of quarterback play and turnovers. Tanehill was much more efficient and effective than Allen on this night, and losing the turnover battle 3-0 killed Buffalo.
Chiefs vs Bills Week 6 Analysis: Betting on the Game
The Bills are undefeated ATS at home and that trend should continue vs the Chiefs in Week 6. Look for Buffalo’s offense to make less mistakes, and to score piles of points on a susceptible Kansas City defense. The Ralph will be rocking on Monday, even with no fans physically in attendance.
Let’s cut to the chase. The Buffalo Bills will defeat the Kansas City Chiefs on MNF. A moneyline of +165 is a pretty juicy piece of action for a powerhouse underdog at home. A courageous wager of $50 yields a total payout of $132.50 when Buffalo wins. Ya dig?!
All the games that Buffalo has played have gone over. Why would that change against Kansas City’s offensive juggernaut? The Chiefs are ranked eighth in points scored, and the Bills rank eleventh. Buffalo and K.C. each gave up 40+ points to the opposition last week. There will be fireworks at Ralph Wilson Stadium on Oct. 19. Bills 37, Chiefs 30.