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Love for Love?: Packers QB a +1400 Dark Horse for Passing Yards Title

With scheme adjustments, personnel changes, and a growing emphasis on aerial attacks, predicting the season’s passing yard leader is a complex but lucrative endeavor for NFL betting fans.

This year offers a compelling mix of returning veterans hungry for another title and young guns poised for a breakout season. Analyzing these quarterbacks’ strengths, weaknesses, and supporting casts will be crucial in identifying who can separate themselves from the pack and lead the league in passing yards.

Love for Love?: Packers QB a +1400 Dark Horse for Passing Yards Title
Kansas City Chiefs' quarterback #15 Patrick Mahomes-Patrick T. Fallon / AFP

Jordan Love is our top pick. Current favorite Patrick Mahomes finished sixth last season, so he could be a false favorite at +550 odds. C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott, and Jared Goff are all well-favored to win.

It’s going to be an interesting betting market, and we’re here to dissect it.


Is Jordan Love the Next Passing Yard King?

Jordan Love had a great 2023-24 season, passing for 4159 yards and finishing seventh on the list.

I expect him to only improve from that year. He has the receivers needed to pick up plenty of yards, and I expect the Packers to use their passing game a lot this season. His completion percentage was only 64.2% last campaign, ranking last of the top 10 passing QBs, so he has plenty of room for improvement.

Love could be the dark horse nobody sees coming. If he can tighten up his accuracy just a hair, his raw talent could explode into a yardage frenzy. At +1400 odds, the sportsbook is practically offering him the keys to the passing yard kingdom. With a lucrative contract extension on the horizon, Love has all the motivation in the world to prove his worth.

Will he silence the doubters and lead the league in passing yards? This bet might be too good to pass up.



Is Patrick Mahomes Overvalued?

Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL, that’s undisputed. However, I can’t understand why he’s the +550 favorite for this market.

He was below his best in passing yards last year, throwing 4183 yards, which was good enough for sixth spot. He averaged just seven yards per game, which doesn’t rank close to being top. He finished behind the likes of Baker Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence, Derek Carr, and Geno Smith.

I expect him to have more passing yards in 2024 for sure, but not enough to be rated a +550 betting odds. There are other markets where bettors can find value for Mahomes, including MVP, but avoid him here.

Back-to-Back Titles for Tua Tagovailoa?

There was no stopping Tua Tagovailoa last season, throwing 4624 yards to win the title, and there is no reason why he can’t go back-to-back given the way the Miami Dolphins are set up. They like to air the ball, and his arm is good enough to hold up for another year.

Tua averaged 8.3 YPG, which was second behind Brock Purdy, but they use more running game in San Francisco.

He recently made headlines for his dramatic weight loss, so a fitter Tagovailoa is a dangerous prospect.

“I feel better,” Tagovailoa said. “Quicker on my feet. More nimble. I can extend plays more.”

Getting +700 odds is a great price, and I’m definitely including him in my picks for NFL passing leader.


CJ Stroud + Nico Collins = Passing Threat

C.J. Stroud had a great rookie year with the Houston Texans, and he will improve on that effort with Nico Collins available to throw to.

“When his number is called, he always makes a play,” Stroud said of Collins. “He’s a generational talent, like our age’s Andre Johnson, in my opinion, of just how fast he is, how he gets in and out of his braces, releases, how strong he is. I think last year was just a preview of what’s to come for him.”

That’s high praise for his highly touted receiver, and I like the confidence Stroud brings to the table. That’s why he’s on the second line of betting at +600, and I’m happy to include him in my NFL picks.



Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.


Questions Of The Day

Who is the betting favorite to be the 2024 NFL Passer Leader?

Patrick Mahomes is the +550 favorite to be the NFL’s passing leader this season.

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