The Miami Dolphins look to bounce back following a humiliating Week 2 shutout loss but will need to contend with the Las Vegas Raiders’ red-hot offense. The NFL betting lines favor the home team Raiders although the betting history leans more towards coach Brian Flores and his Dolphins. Is it Vegas’ turn to be upset?
|Game: Miami Dolphins (1-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-0)
Location: Allegiant StadiumDate: Sunday, Sept. 26, 2021
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
|Team||Point Spread||Moneyline||Over/Under||Team Total|
|Miami||+3½ -105||+170||44 -110o||20 -120o/-110u|
|Las Vegas||-3½ -115||-200||44 -110u||23½ -120o/-110u|
It’s almost even between the Miami Dolphins and Las Vegas Raiders. In 40 meetings, Las Vegas holds a one-game lead with a 20-19-1 record though Miami has the lead in regular-season meetings: 18-17-1. This is thanks to Miami having won 10 of their last 12 meetings.
Next game: vs Indianapolis Colts
The Dolphins were destroyed by the Buffalo Bills in their home opener, 35-0. Miami was only a three-point underdog but couldn’t recover after seeing quarterback Tua Tagovailoa get hurt early. Jacoby Brissett filled in but got dismantled by the Bills’ ultra-aggressive defense.
As mentioned, Tagovailoa (ribs) will be out. Wide receiver Allen Hurns (wrist) remains sidelined but both DeVante Parker (leg) and Will Fuller (personal) will be available.
Will Fuller is back in Dolphins facility today and participating in team functions again after missing end of last week and Sundays game with personal issue.
Im told hes in a better mind space now after recharging this weekend. Fuller will make his debut Sunday vs. Raiders.
Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) September 20, 2021
Las Vegas Raiders
Next game: at Los Angeles Chargers
The Raiders burst NFL predictions for a second straight week and went up 2-0 for the first time since 1995. Las Vegas upset the Pittsburgh Steelers 26-17 as 5.5-point underdogs. Derek Carr was even better this time, throwing for 382 yards, two scores, and a 126.2 passer rating.
The Raiders’ injury list is extensive. Among their notable sidelined players include defensive tackle Gerald McCoy (knee) and backup QB Marcus Mariota (quad). Guard Richie Incognito (calf) is also on the mend.
Betting on the Game
Action has been split here with plenty of support coming in for Miami. This is despite the fact Las Vegas upset two AFC North powers in Baltimore and Pittsburgh while the Dolphins became the first NFL team this season to put up a donut on the scoreboard.
Las Vegas is 3.5-point favorite but is just 5-8 against the spread (ATS) as one since Jon Gruden took over as coach in 2018. This is a popular favorite to fade as the Raiders have a penchant for disappointment. They are also just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against AFC East opponents.
Miami will look to bounce back from that embarrassment. The good news for their supporters is that Flores has been phenomenal on the spread. Since 2019, Miami leads the NFL with a 61.8% spread record (21-13-0). As an underdog, Miami is 17-10-0 (63%) and as a road team, it is 10-7-0 (58.8%). Either way you cut it, the Dolphins are a force on the online sports betting lines under the young coach.
Head-to-head, the Dolphins have also had the Raiders’ number. They are 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten against them and that includes being 3-1 as a visitor. Miami will still have a formidable defense here and will have more firepower with several starters returning on offense.
With a small spread, folks can also take the Dolphins to win at +170 when betting online. Miami has won six of their last seven games when visiting the Raiders. The Dolphins are also 6-5 as an underdog since last season.
This will come down to how well Miami can keep up with Las Vegas’ offense. The Raiders lead the league in passing yards and are seventh in points scored and yards per play. But they are 30th in rushing. It just so happens that Miami is strong against the pass but weak against the run.
Miami will also need to do a better job at getting Carr. The Dolphins are third in the NFL in blitzes per dropback percent (40.8%) but only have a 25% pressure rate, which is an average stat. Their stalwart secondary should be also up to the task of stopping Carr and the Raiders’ talented receiving corps.
Brissett is only 7-16 on the road with an 82.7 passer rating. His 199 yards per road game won’t cut it and Miami will be outgunned if it comes down to a quarterback duel. Running back Myles Gaskin needs to have a big role here if Miami is to move the chains and pull off an upset.
We locked up the Raiders as our Week 1 Over of the Week and they delivered. With the totals for this one set surprisingly low at 44, this could be another game that goes over. Vegas has led the NFL on the total going over since last season with a 13-4-1 record.
Five of Vegas’ last five home games have gone over. In 2020, the Raiders’ home games averaged 58 points in total with Vegas scoring 28 while allowing 30. The hot offense combined with the cavalier defense was and still is a solid recipe for a high total.
Additionally, nine of the last ten meetings between the Raiders and Dolphins have gone over. Their combined total on average is 48.6. Even if Miami has the fewest points in the NFL this season, the team finished 15th in scoring last year. Expect a better offensive showing from the Dolphins now that Brissett should be more settled and several starters are back in action.