The New England Patriots and New York Jets look to avoid going into an 0-2 hole after dropping their season openers. New England is favored per Las Vegas’ NFL odds in this AFC East matchup on Sunday as the Jets look to snap a 10-game losing skid against Bill Belichick’s crew.
Game: New England Patriots (0-1) at New York Jets (0-1)
Location: MetLife Stadium
Time: 1 p.m. ET
|Team||Point Spread||Moneyline||Over/Under||Team Total|
|New England||-6 -110||-245||43 -110o||24½ -115o/-115u|
|New York Jets||+6 -110||+205||43 -110u||17½ -130o/Evu|
Head to Head
Ten. That’s how many consecutive wins the Patriots have over the Jets. New York has not beaten New England since the 2015 season when Todd Bowles was the Jets coach and Ryan Fitzpatrick was their quarterback. New England is 69-54-1 against the Jets all time. Pats head coach Bill Belichick is 29-8 against the Jets.
New England Patriots
Next game: vs New Orleans Saints
It was a gutting loss for the Patriots against the Miami Dolphins and they sank our ATS Lock of the Week. Ouch. The Pats were the better team for most of the game, outgaining Miami in yards and winning the possession battle. But they fumbled in the red zone and are now 0-1 after the 17-16 loss.
Tackle Trent Brown (calf) left last game and is likely unavailable for this game. Disgruntled wide receiver N’Keal Harry (shoulder) is in the injured reserve. Linebacker Kyle Van Noy (throat) is also sidelined.
New York Jets
Next game: at Denver Broncos
The Jets also started their season with a loss as they got slapped around by the Carolina Panthers. They managed to compose themselves and looked better in the second half but still lost 19-14, though they pushed on the five-point spread.
Linebacker Jamien Sherwood (ankle) is out while the team also has a plethora of injuries but mostly to the backups.
Betting on the Game
Even if the Jets have lost 10 straight vs the Patriots, they covered four of these games. However, it’s been ugly the last few meetings. New England has beaten New York by an average of 19.2 points. This includes a 33-0 beatdown at MetLife Stadium in 2019.
Still, most of the sportsbook’s action has been on the underdog Jets. The spread has stayed at six points. New York was 4-3 against the spread (ATS) as a home underdog in 2020. There is plenty of optimism here as coach Robert Saleh and rookie quarterback Zach Wilson bring renewed energy to a franchise that has been lacking it for the last few seasons.
The Jets will have to do better than the 4.2 yards they averaged against the Panthers. They gave up six sacks and were only 4 of 13 on third-down conversions. The Patriots will need to keep attacking the vulnerable Jets offensive line like the Panthers did and force Wilson to keep committing mistakes.
Zach Wilson in this second half has shown you everything you could have wanted to see.
The problem is the offensive line. Not the QB.
— Connor Hughes (@Connor_J_Hughes) September 12, 2021
New England failed to cover on all three of its road games as a favorite last season. The Patriots are also just 3-4 ATS against their division. They were a bad fumble away from beating the Dolphins last week.
This time around, the Patriots are facing a much more inexperienced team with a rookie coach and quarterback and a worse defense. But it’s also a road game and playing in East Rutherford is always tough.
This is interesting as most of the action has been in New York, but the line has shifted heavily for the Patriots. They opened at -190 and have dropped to -245. The comeback on the Jets is now at +205 after opening at +165.
The Patriots are constantly the top choice in NFL predictions, especially against the Jets. The former has been a model of excellence while the latter is purgatory. Since the Jets’ last win against the Pats, they are 11-20 as a home underdog (35.5 percent) while New England is 27-14 (65.8) as a road favorite. Without Tom Brady, they are 1-2.
The key matchup here will be the Pats’ pass rush against the Jets’ O-line. The Patriots allowed the seventh-fewest points last season and, despite registering just 24 sacks (27th overall), the Pats had a pressure percent of 26.4 percent, the fifth-best in the league.
They will be able to dominate the Jets for as long as they can keep Wilson scrambling. But the moment they let him get comfortable, the second overall pick can carve them up even if they have one of the best secondaries in the NFL.
The totals have stayed at 43, though there is a bit more action hinging on the under. Both of their games went under last week. In fact, seven of the Patriots’ last nine games have gone under as well as seven of their last 10 against the Jets.
The Patriots have been a top-10 defense in terms of allowing points in 14 of the last 15 seasons. Belichick’s team may yield yards, but it has been consistent in stuffing big plays and holding teams out of the end zone.
The Jets, on the other hand, have had a defense that’s finished in the bottom-third of the league for nine of the last 10 seasons. The only exception? The 2015 season, where they went 10-6 and last beat the Patriots.
But with so many flaws on the Jets’ offensive corps and the Patriots not exactly being an offensive juggernaut, taking the conservative approach when betting online may be the logical choice.