Entering the 2020 season, it was an open question as to how much of a difference Tom Brady would make in Tampa with the Buccaneers. A guy in his mid-40s coming to a new team after a bad last season with the dynastic team he led to nine Super Bowls over the previous 19 seasons was a source of intrigue. It was no sure thing Brady was going to succeed with his new team. Brady did indeed give the Buccaneers a jackpot season, making his 10th Super Bowl and winning his seventh Lombardi Trophy. He certainly had help from a defense that grew and improved as the postseason went along, but Brady was the rock that not only held the Bucs together, but who inspired belief and created a culture of success. Previous Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston could never have inspired that response.
The NFC South has the reigning Super Bowl champion. It doesn’t have Drew Brees anymore, and it has a new quarterback in Charlotte with the Carolina Panthers, plus a new head coach in Atlanta. Let’s look at what this division has to offer in 2021.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2020 ATS Record: 9-7
2020 O-U Record: 9-7
Bettors had to pick their spots with the Buccaneers against the spread. Tampa Bay had some nightmarish games against the New Orleans Saints, and the offense struggled for much of the season – against the Rams, Vikings, and Giants, among others. It is worth remembering that the Bucs did not win their division. This was not a dominant regular-season team. It trailed the Saints in the divisional playoff round and needed crucial turnovers from New Orleans to turn that playoff game around. Don’t revise history – this team played its best football in the fourth quarter of the Saints’ playoff game and then in the final two games against the Packers and Chiefs. Before, this was a decent but hardly special team. It survived long enough to eventually figure out how to play the right way.
Best Offseason Move: Retaining their Super Bowl roster with no significant losses. The big challenge for Super Bowl champions is when players win titles and their value on the open market becomes considerable, they often leave for bigger dollars elsewhere. Championship franchises taste long-term success when they convince their players to stay in a championship situation for slightly less money than at another organization. The Buccaneers achieved that in the offseason, suffering no mammoth losses. The core of the Super Bowl roster is largely intact. That’s what the team needed to do in the offseason, and it’s a big achievement.
Worst Offseason Move: Drafting Kyle Trask. Sure, the Bucs will eventually need a quarterback once Tom Brady retires, but why can’t that quarterback be a free-agent target? Why did Tampa have to draft a project at quarterback? This was a late second-round selection. The Bucs could have used this on an offensive lineman to protect Brady or on an added pass rusher or run stuffer, maybe a defensive back. This was a waste of a pick, and if injuries hit the team during the 2021 season, the Bucs might wish they had plugged a few holes lower on their depth chart with a more valuable piece.
Instant Impact: Joe Tryon from the University of Washington. This is the kind of player the Bucs needed, a depth linebacker who should get some snaps this season, rotating with the established starters and giving the champions the ability to keep their top players fresh. Tryon might not have a statistically dominant season – that’s really not why he is in Tampa – but he will reduce the amount of strain on his teammates, enabling the Bucs to be healthy entering the playoffs as they try to defend their Super Bowl title.
Strength Of Schedule
The Buccaneers didn’t finish first in their division last year, so they don’t play the worst possible schedule in terms of its degree of difficulty. The Bucs begin their season by playing host to the Dallas Cowboys, who figure to be good but not great. The Bucs play a lot of “good but not great” teams. They should be able to win most of them. If they do, the fact that the Saints lack Drew Brees makes Tampa the favorite in the division.
For Better Or For Worse
The Bucs were 11-5 last year, but lost twice to a Saints team that had Brees. Tampa Bay should at least split with New Orleans and might be able to sweep the Saints. The reigning Super Bowl champs should be better than their 2020 record in 2021.
Predicted Finish: 1st In NFC South
New Orleans Saints
2020 ATS Record: 9-7
2020 O-U Record: 10-6
Bettors did slightly better than break even if they bet on the Saints against the spread. The Saints clobbered the Bucs twice in the regular season and had several other games in which they maxed out. However, New Orleans struggled against the AFC West, losing twice straight up and barely avoiding a loss to the Chargers at home. The Saints went through some peaks and valleys, which is why their record against the spread wasn’t better.
Best Offseason Move: Letting Jared Cook go to the Chargers. Cook committed the huge fumble that turned around the divisional playoff game against the Bucs. The Saints were in control of that game in the second half. Cook’s turnover gave the Bucs the spark they needed to mount a comeback. Cook became unreliable in his ball security and attention to detail. He was not giving the team the value it needed. He might be a good player in Los Angeles with Justin Herbert, but his time in Louisiana needed to end.
Worst Offseason Move: Drafting Ian Book. The Saints already have a crowded and uncertain quarterback room with Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill sharing snaps and space. Did the Saints really need a third quarterback, and did they need to use a top-150 pick in the draft to do so? New Orleans could have gotten an offensive lineman or a receiver with this pick, especially since the Saints lost Emmanuel Sanders to the Buffalo Bills. There were definitely greater needs to address than this one.
Instant Impact: Landing pass rusher Tanoh Kpassagnon from the Chiefs. The Saints need to plant Brady and also Matt Ryan of the Falcons into the ground. This might be the man to do it. The Saints need their defense to be better than ever with Brees gone. This is an impactful pickup.
Strength Of Schedule
New Orleans plays host to Green Bay in Week 1. The big question: Will Aaron Rodgers play in that game? No one knows. The Saints play the NFC East, which helps. They play the AFC East out of conference and get the Bills at home. It’s not an easy schedule, but it has some soft spots here and there. They’re at +2500 in terms of their Super Bowl odds for 2022
For Better Or For Worse
The Saints were 12-4 last season with Brees. Without him, they will likely be worse, though maybe not by a huge margin. A 10-7 result in a 17-game schedule seems about right.
Predicted Finish: 2nd in the NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
2020 ATS Record: 7-9
2020 O-U Record: 7-9
Betting on the Falcons was a headache last year. The special teams unit memorably imploded in a ridiculous loss to the Cowboys. The Falcons let a late lead against the Lions slip away. They led the Bears by 16 points and lost that game, too. The Falcons played a number of games in which they controlled the action for 40 minutes and then lost the plot. This is why coach Dan Quinn had to go.
Best Offseason Move: Hiring Arthur Smith as head coach. Smith deserved his big chance to be a head coach after several seasons of good work as the offensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans. How he maximizes Ryan’s talents in the Atlanta offense will be an intriguing plot point this year.
Worst Offseason Move: Not getting an elite high-end defensive player. The Falcons need imposing, overwhelming defensive players to prevent the late-game collapses we saw last season. They didn’t get any player who would qualify as a game-changer on defense. That will limit this team’s ceiling in 2021.
Instant Impact: Kyle Pitts. The tight end plays like a wide receiver. He is a tall, big target for Ryan. This is a great situation for him, and Smith should enjoy fitting him into an offense that should flourish this year if the offensive line holds up.
Strength Of Schedule
The Falcons play three NFC East teams in the first four weeks of the season. They play the Jets in Week 5. They get an off week in Week 6. This team should be 4-1 heading into that off week. Atlanta should be able to contend for a playoff spot with this schedule.
For Better Or For Worse
The Falcons were 4-12 last year but, as noted, blew big leads multiple times. The soft schedule should enable Atlanta to win at least eight games, probably nine, and possibly 10 if everything breaks right.
Predicted Finish: 3rd In NFC South
Carolina Panthers
2020 ATS Record: 9-7
2020 O-U Record: 7-9
The Panthers had a terrible win-loss record, but they played a lot of close games. Carolina just couldn’t get over the hump in most of them. The Panthers played the Kansas City Chiefs well but barely lost. They played the Packers close in Green Bay but didn’t win. This team was regularly competitive, but it regularly lost. That’s why they had a winning record against the sports betting spread despite being a 5-11 team.
Best Offseason Move: Giving Sam Darnold offensive line help. Adding Pat Elflein from the Jets and Cameron Irving from the Cowboys will stabilize the offensive line and give Carolina a fighting chance. It is well known that Darnold had no real chance to succeed in New York with the Jets. This is a much better situation for him, but in order for this project to work, Darnold needs help from the line.
Worst Offseason Move: Letting Curtis Samuel get away. Samuel is an electric playmaker who could have worked wonders for Darnold. This might be the player the Panthers regret losing before the 2021 season begins.
Instant Impact: Sam Darnold. Darnold gets a young offensive coordinator, Joe Brady, and a fresh start in Charlotte. He has been liberated from Jets purgatory. Darnold should be able to improve this season.
Strength Of Schedule
The Panthers face the Jets, Darnold’s old team, in Week 1. They really need to win that game. The Panthers play the AFC East out of conference, and they play the NFC East within the conference. Carolina will struggle against the Bucs and Saints, but it will have chances to win elsewhere on the schedule.
For Better Or For Worse
The Panthers were 5-11 last year, and their schedule sets up really well in terms of being able to win more games this year, probably seven, maybe eight.
Predicted Finish: 4th In NFC South
