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NFL Analysis: Handicapping AFC West
Chiefs Favored to Win Second Straight Super Bowl
Can Payton Lead Broncos to Playoffs?
The Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs have won seven straight AFC West titles and the NFL predictions favor them to extend the streak to eight.
The Los Angeles Chargers made it into the playoffs last season, but a 2-4 division record was a bit concerning. The addition of head coach Sean Payton in Denver could make the Broncos more of a threat and that move generated plenty of NFL news headlines, while the jury is still out on Las Vegas Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels.
There will be some new offensive tackles protecting MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City while Jimmy Garoppolo is now the No. 1 quarterback with the Raiders.
There is only one top-20 draft pick joining the AFC West and that is new Raiders defensive end Tyree Wilson.
While the Chiefs will be favored to win another division title and will draw plenty of NFL betting action. The question is how many other teams in the division will earn postseason bids.
The 2023 regular season begins with the Chiefs playing a Thursday night affair with the Detroit Lions on Sept. 7 while the Raiders and Broncos jumping right into division play on Week 1.
When looking at the NFL picks, the Chiefs lead the way in the NFL odds to win the Super Bowl. The Chargers are tied for 10th.
Kansas City Chiefs
- 2022 record: 14-3 (defeated Philadelphia to win Super Bowl)
- Odds to win the division: -155
- Odds to win the AFC: +325
- Regular season win total: 11½ (Over -110, Under -110)
- Award candidates: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, +1800 Defensive Rookie of the Year; Travis Kelce, +2000 Offensive Player of the Year; Patrick Mahomes, +700 Regular Season MVP and +2000 Offensive Player of the Year; Chris Jones, +2500 Defensive Player of the Year; Rashee Rice, +3300 Offensive Rookie of the Year; Kadarius Toney, +5000 Comeback Player of the Year; Clyde Edwards-Helaire, +5000 Comeback Player of the Year.
There haven’t been back-to-back Super Bowl champions since the New England Patriots following the 2003 and 2004 seasons. Could the Chiefs change that?
The Chiefs did lose offensive tackles Orlando Brown Jr. and Andrew Wylie, defensive ends Frank Clark and Carlos Dunlap, receiver Mecole Hardman and safety Juan Thornhill so there are holes to fill.
The offensive tackle slots figure to be filled by Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor, who come over from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Safety Mike Edwards is another addition from Tampa Bay, linebacker Drue Tranquil was added from the division rival Chargers while former San Francisco 49ers defensive end Charles Omenihu is another key offseason acquisition.
The Chiefs didn’t go back to land another pass rusher as they took Kansas State product Felix Anudike-Uzomah with the final pick of the first round and Southern Methodist receiver Rashee Rice as another pass catcher for Mahomes.
Kansas City has six primetime games in 2023 beginning with the Week 1 matchup with the Lions.
For the first time in 20 years, we will welcome the @Lions back to our stadium 🏟️ pic.twitter.com/gE7UITdHJF
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) May 11, 2023
Take A Look At These Other 2 NFL Divisions Analysis
Los Angeles Chargers
- 2022 record: 10-7 (lost to Jacksonville in wild card round)
- Odds to win the division: +325
- Odds to win the AFC: +1200
- Regular season win total: 9½ (Over -115, Under -105)
- Award candidates: Austin Ekeler, +1400 Offensive Player of the Year; Quentin Johnston, +1800 Offensive Rookie of the Year; Justin Hebert, +1400 Regular Season MVP and +2800 Offensive Player of the Year; Brandon Staley, +2500 Coach of the Year; Keenan Allen, +4000 Comeback Player of the Year; Mike Williams, +4000 Comeback Player of the Year; Joey Bosa, +4000 Defensive Player of the Year and +5000 Comeback Player of the Year; Derwin James, +6000 Defensive Player of the Year.
The Chargers are coming off a painful season in more ways than one as receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and defensive end Joey Bosa combined to miss 23 games.
TCU’s Quentin Johnson was drafted to join Williams and Allen as quarterback Justin Herbert looks to get back on track after his touchdown passes dropped from 38 to 25.
Running back Austin Ekeler has requested a trade so that is something to keep an eye on. Leading tackle Drue Tranquill is now with the Chiefs. That could open the door for a larger role for Kenneth Murray.
The retirement of safety Nasir Adderley at the age of 25 was a bit of a stunner.
The Chargers added linebacker Eric Kendricks from Minnesota and then drafted linebackers Tuli Tuipuloti and Daiyan Henley in the second and third rounds.
Denver Broncos
- 2022 record: 5-12 (missed playoffs)
- Odds to win the division: +450
- Odds to win the AFC: +1800
- Regular season win total: 8½ (Over -115, Under -105)
- Award candidates: Sean Payton, +900 Coach of the Year; Javonte Williams, +2000 Comeback Player of the Year; Russell Wilson, +1200 Comeback Player of the Year and +2800 Regular Season MVP; Drew Sanders, +2200 Defensive Rookie of the Year; BJ Olujari, +3300 Defensive Rookie of the Year; Patrick Surtain, +4000 Defensive Player of the Year; Courtland Sutton, +5000 Comeback Player of the Year; Jerry Jeudy, +5000 Comeback Player of the Year; Tim Patrick, +5000 Comeback Player of the Year.
It wasn’t cheap, but the Broncos got a new head coach in Sean Payton, who led the New Orleans Saints to seven division titles, nine playoff appearances, and a Super Bowl title.
The hope is that Payton’s arrival will cure whatever was ailing the offense in quarterback Russell Wilson’s first season with the Broncos. Getting running back Javonte Williams for the entire season will help.
Receiver Marquez Callaway comes to Denver from the Saints. The biggest offensive addition could be former San Francisco 49ers offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey. Fellow offensive linemen Ben Powers and Kyle Fuller were also signed.
The pass rush should be better with the arrival of former Arizona Cardinals defensive end Zach Allen.
Denver didn’t pick until late in the second round in the 2023 NFL Draft and selected Oklahoma receiver Marvin Mims before adding Arkansas linebacker Drew Sanders and Iowa cornerback Riley Moss in the third round.
The Broncos kick off the regular season with back-to-back home games.
Bring it on, 2023.
📰 » https://t.co/cbSiQyH2BZ pic.twitter.com/Kl00RTVWKg
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) May 12, 2023
Las Vegas Raiders
- 2022 record: 6-11 (missed playoffs)
- Odds to win the division: +1200
- Odds to win the AFC: +2500
- Regular season win total: 7 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Award candidates: Tyree Wilson, +700 Defensive Rookie of the Year; Maxx Crosby, +1000 Defensive Player of the Year; Davante Adams, +1800 Offensive Player of the Year; Jimmy Garoppolo, +2000 Comeback Player of the Year; Josh Jacobs, +5000 Offensive Player of the Year; Michael Mayer, +4000 Offensive Rookie of the Year.
It was an interesting offseason for the Raiders as Jimmy Garoppolo was brought in from the 49ers following the release of former starter Derek Carr.
Tight end Darren Waller is also gone while former Patriots receiver Jakobi Meyers and Tennessee Titans tight end Austin Hooper were added.
Speaking of tight ends, the Raiders drafted Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer and selected Cincinnati receiver Tre Tucker with the pick they got in the Waller trade.
The first selection was Texas Tech defensive lineman Tyree Wilson. He should play immediately on the opposite side from star pass rusher Maxx Crosby.
Look for more from Davante Adams in his second season with the Raiders.
Keep an eye on the status of leading rusher Josh Jacobs as his time with the Raiders could be coming to an end sooner rather than later.
Third-leading tackler Denzel Perryman is now in Houston while No. 2 tackler Duron Harmon is unsigned. That is a concern for a unit that allowed more points than any other AFC West team.
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