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NFL Analysis: Handicapping the NFC South
Brady’s Exit Leaves Division Up for Grabs
The NFC South will look vastly different in the 2023 season with every team starting a new quarterback. Tom Brady retiring was the biggest NFC South news. The New Orleans Saints also signed Derek Carr, who enters the season as the division’s top signal-caller. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers could fall from best to worst following Brady’s departure.
The Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers will also feature some of the best rookies in the NFL. The Saints are the favorite to win the division among NFL predictions, but they will have competition with the Falcons and Panthers likely improving. Let’s look at each team in the NFC South and their most notable NFL odds.
Atlanta Falcons
- 2022 record: 7-10 (missed playoffs)
- Odds to win the division: +250
- Odds to win the NFC: +3000
- Regular season win total: 8 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Award candidates: Kyle Pitts, +5000 Comeback Player of the Year; Bijan Robinson, +300 Offensive Rookie of the Year and +4000 Offensive Player of the Year; Arthur Smith, +2500 Coach of the Year
The Falcons could be the most intriguing team to watch in the South. The sportsbook has them as a borderline playoff squad at +120 to make the postseason. They are also the second choice to win the division.
Atlanta made a clear effort to upgrade its defense in free agency with the additions of safety Jessie Bates III, edge rusher Bud Dupree and defensive tackles Calais Campbell and David Onyemata. The Falcons also traded for cornerback Jeff Okudah, the No. 3 pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Coach Arthur Smith’s offense could open up this season with one of the league’s best run games. Guard Chris Lindstrom and offensive tackle Kaleb McGary agreed to long-term extensions, and second-round rookie guard Matthew Bergeron should be an immediate impact. The Falcons selected running back Bijan Robinson with the No. 8 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Robinson could immediately be one of the league’s best running backs and is the favorite for Offensive Rookie for the Year.
Bijan Robinson is a Falcon 🙌
The former Texas back is ATL’s new RB1 pic.twitter.com/OXuiZji8GD
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 28, 2023
Quarterback Desmond Ridder takes over as the full-time starter. His play will likely decide Atlanta’s fate.
Carolina Panthers
- 2022 record: 7-10 (missed playoffs)
- Odds to win the division: +310
- Odds to win the NFC: +2500
- Regular season win total: 7½ (Over -135, Under +105)
- Award candidates: Brian Burns, +2500 Defensive Player of the Year; Bryce Young, +450 Offensive Rookie of the Year; Frank Reich, +1400 Coach of the Year
Carolina enters a new era with coach Frank Reich and quarterback Bryce Young, who was the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Young is one of the favorites among NFL expert picks to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. However, he could lack the targets.
The Panthers dealt wide receiver D.J. Moore to the Chicago Bears to acquire the top selection in the draft. Carolina signed Adam Thielen in free agency. He will likely be the top target, but does he have enough left in the tank? Wide receiver D.J. Chark was also added in free agency. Running back D’Onta Foreman joined the Chicago Bears, but the Panthers got an upgrade with Miles Sanders. Carolina needs a solid run game for Young to succeed.
The defense still has plenty of potential. Edge rusher Brian Burns could be a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Jaycee Horn is one of the best cornerbacks in the league. The Panthers also added safety Vonn Bell and defensive tackle Shy Tuttle.
Take A Look At These Other 2 NFL Divisions Analysis
New Orleans Saints
- 2022 record: 7-10 (missed playoffs)
- Odds to win the division: +125
- Odds to win the NFC: +1400
- Regular season win total: 9½ (Over Ev, Under -130)
- Award candidates: Derek Carr, +5000 NFL Most Valuable Player and +2000 Comeback Player of the Year; Bryan Bresee, +2800 Defensive Rookie of the Year; Isaiah Foskey, +5000 Defensive Rookie of the Year; Dennis Allen, +2200 Coach of the Year
The Saints could have solved their quarterback problem with the splash signing of Carr. However, he struggled last season. NFL lines are expecting a turnaround for Carr, as he has an outside shot to win the MVP Award.
Carr certainly has the offense to succeed. Alvin Kamara is still one of the NFL’s most versatile running backs. Jamaal Williams was added in free agency, and rookie Kendre Miller could crack the rotation. This is a stacked running back room, and the offensive line could improve with Trevor Penning taking over left tackle in his second season. Wide receiver Michael Thomas’ health will be a big key once again. He has not been healthy since 2019. Fortunately, Chris Olave proved he can be a quality top target in his rookie season. Tight end Foster Moreau was also signed to a three-year deal this week.
The mission hasn’t changed… let’s get it https://t.co/DUEuOeBGJo
— Derek Carr (@derekcarrqb) May 10, 2023
New Orleans also upgraded their defensive line with rookies Bryan Bresee and Isaiah Foskey. The front seven should be one of the league’s best despite edge rusher Marcus Davenport’s departure.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- 2022 record: 8-9 (lost to Dallas in wildcard playoffs)
- Odds to win the division: +600
- Odds to win the NFC: +4000
- Regular season win total: 6½ (Over Ev, Under -130)
- Award candidates: Baker Mayfield, +4000 Comeback Player of the Year; Calijah Kancey, +2500 Defensive Rookie of the Year; Trey Palmer, +5000 Offensive Rookie of the Year; Todd Bowles, +4000 Coach of the Year
We knew once Brady retired, Tampa Bay would likely fall off of a cliff. The time has arrived. The Buccaneers are expected to be the worst team in the NFC South. Few NFL picks are favoring Tampa Bay to win the division with the longest odds to come out on top.
The Bucs’ quarterback situation is dire. Kyle Trask has appeared in one game during his career and went 3 of 9 for 23 yards. Tampa Bay also signed Baker Mayfield, and he has been disappointing, to say the least. The Buccaneers will heavily lean on its run game led by second-year running back Rachaad White and Chase Edmonds. Running back Leonard Fournette was released and remains unsigned.
The defense will lead the way in the 2023 season. Tampa Bay re-signed cornerback Jamel Dean and linebacker Lavonte David. Devin White requested a trade, but the Bucs are attempting to extend the former All-Pro linebacker. Rookie defensive linemen Calijah Kancey and YaYa Diaby should also have immediate impacts. Kancey is an intriguing Defensive Rookie of the Year choice. He could stack sacks alongside nose tackle Vita Vea. If the Buccaneers are to surpass expectations, the run game and defense must flourish.
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