NFL Week 2 is almost in the books. Only Monday’s doubleheader remains to be decided before we can put a bow on this week’s 16-game schedule.
By the stats so far, the favorites and underdogs split 7-7-0 straight up (SU). But the favorites were steamrolled 3-11-0.against the spread (ATS). Home teams went 9-5-0 and 6-8-0 ATS and the under dominated for the second straight week, cashing in 10 of 14 games.
Let’s sort through the games and highlight some of the worst of the bad beats and backdoor covers that shaped key outcomes at the sportsbook betting exchange. Basically, the good, the bad, and the ugly of NFL picks.
NFL Week 2 Betting Highlights
- Chiefs, and Rams blow spread after allowing a backdoor cover, respectively.
- Browns, Ravens, and Raiders suffer shock late-game upsets
Bad Beats 1: Chiefs Blow Cover in 27-24 win over Chargers
Although the Los Angeles Chargers got off to a great start at Arrowhead Stadium, establishing a 10-point lead early, the Chiefs took the initiative soon thereafter. Patrick Mahomes and Co. rallied in a big way, showing exactly why they’re tough to put away, especially on home turf.
The NFL betting markets installed the Chiefs as the 3½-point home chalk for a reason, after all. And with 3:20 remaining in the game, Chief’s side bettors were in good shape with their team up by 10 points — until Justin Herbert navigated the Chargers to a last-gasp touchdown. Thus, giving Chargers side bettors the backdoor cover instead.
The upshot: the Chargers improved to 1-1-0 SU and 2-0-0 ATS. The Chiefs fell to a 1-1-0 ATS mark on the season but improved to 2-0-0 SU.
Bad Beats 2: Rams Blow Cover in 31-27 Win over Falcons
The Rams were firing on all cylinders in the first half and by the time the game reached halftime, they held the 21-3 lead over the upstart Falcons. Midway through the third quarter, the Rams were up 28-3 and looking all but assured of the win and cover as the 10-point home chalk.
But the Falcons didn’t get the memo. They had other ideas, clearly. And before the fourth quarter started, they’d already chipped away at the Rams’ lead to 28-10 after Marcus Mariota connected with rookie wide receiver Drake London to score their first touchdown of the game. The Rams responded with a field goal to move ahead 31-10, but to their surprise, the Falcons battled back. Marriota and Co. combined for 17 unanswered points in a dominant fourth quarter, including the final touchdown at 4:57 that flipped the point spread and gave the Falcons the backdoor cover.
The upshot: The Falcons slipped to a 0-2-0 SU record but emerged with a perfect 2-0-0 ATS mark. They’re among seven teams to be 100% against the spread in the first two weeks – the Chargers, Buccaneers, Dolphins, Giants, Lions, and Texans are the other six teams. The Rams, in the meanwhile, improved to a 1-1-0 SU record but slipped to an 0-2-0 ATS record.
Take a Look at Other 2 Previews, Picks & Predictions For NFL Week 3 Matchups
- NFL Week 3 Power Rankings: Dolphins Dynamic, Bengals Losing Stripes
- CFL Week 16 Power Rankings: Stirring the Pot
Bad Beats 3: Ravens Blow it in 42-38 Loss to Dolphins
When all was said and done on Sunday, this AFC matchup delivered one of the most exhilarating comebacks. It was also the highest-scoring game of the day, combining for 80 points – almost double the closing total line of 44½ points.
The Ravens, -3½ in betting online markets, were in cruise control right from the start and took the 28-7 lead into halftime. The Dolphins trimmed that lead down to 28-14 with a score on the first drive in the second half, but the Ravens responded and increased the lead back to 21 points. With the Ravens up 35-14, their backers were in a great position both SU and NFL picks against the spread.
— Troy Vincent, Sr. (@TroyVincentSr) September 19, 2022
Then, the Ravens blinked. And Tua Tagovailoa and Co. reeled off 21 unanswered points to tie the game 35-35 with 5:19 left on the clock. With their backs against the wall all of a sudden, the Ravens could only muster a field goal while chewing up approximately three minutes off the clock. That left the momentum-riding Dolphins with 2:18 in regulation time. Plenty of time to engineer a spectacular come-from-behind win, which they did as Tagovailoa connected with his BFF Jalen Waddle for the game-winning touchdown.
The upshot: the Dolphins improved to a stellar 2-0-0 SU and ATS start on the season whereas the Ravens slipped to a 1-1-0 SU and ATS record.
Bad Beats 4: Browns blow it in 31-30 defeat to Jets
The Browns joined a growing number of favorites to implode in Week 2, failing to cover the spread or losing outright after getting off to a commanding start no less.
The Browns were up by 13 points with just 1:55 left on the clock before they collapsed. How the Jets managed to score two touchdowns in less than two minutes will be a source of debate among NFL experts picks dissecting the week’s action. But, by all accounts, it was the mother of all collapses.
The Browns blew a 13 point lead in the final 1:22 to lose to the Jets 31-30.
NFL teams had won the last 2,229 consecutive games when leading by at least 13 points in the final 2 minutes.
The last team to blow such a lead? The Browns in week 9 of the 2001 season vs the Bears. pic.twitter.com/x0PfP27auh
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 18, 2022
The Jets pulled off the unthinkable 31-30 win to pull off the upset as the 6½ closing underdogs on the road. The way the game started, the Jets had no business winning it at all.
The upshot: The Jets improved to a 1-1-0 SU and ATS record while the Browns fell to a 1-1-0 SU and ATS record.
Bad Beats 5: Raiders blow it in 29-23 loss to Cardinals
The Las Vegas Raiders entered this game as the firm 5½-point home chalk, only to fritter away a 20-0 lead and lose 29-23 in overtime.
— Big Perm (@TheBigPerm) September 19, 2022
Going into the fourth quarter, the Raiders were up 23-7 and looking almost assured of a win at the very least. But things went awry pretty quickly in the final stanza as Kyler Murray rallied the Cards to two unanswered touchdowns and a pair of two-point conversions to tie the game at 23-23 with 0:00 left on the clock.
It didn’t take long for things to go from bad to worse for Derek Carr and Co. as they fumbled the ball in overtime, giving the Cards the fumble-return touchdown for the win.
The upshot: The Raiders slipped to a 0-2-0 SU and ATS record while the Cards improved to a 1-1-0 SU and ATS record.