Phoenix Suns
NFL Draft: Polished vs Raw Quarterback Gems
2023 Quarterback Class Driving Debate
The NFL Draft season always sparks much debate. Which player should go where? Was that a good selection or a bad one? We see many different NFL expert picks throughout the process that proposes interesting ideas.
Perhaps the most fascinating debate is what kind of quarterback prospect should teams select? Should rebuilding squads opt for the raw quarterback with a sky-high upside or the NFL-ready signal-callers that produced at the highest level in college? The 2023 NFL Draft has four quarterback prospects expected to go in the first round: C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis.
These prospects are the perfect example of raw versus polished quarterbacks. Let’s dig into the debate. What’s the benefit of each side?
Odds Favoring Polished Signal-Callers
Most NFL predictions expect Stroud, Young, Richardson and Levis to be off the board early. All four could be selected within the top 10 picks, especially if some QB-needy teams trade up. According to NFL odds, Stroud is the favorite to be selected No. 1 overall (-120) with Young close behind (-110).
So far, it seems the top picks, the Carolina Panthers and Houston Texas, will likely favor the NFL-ready QBs. Stroud flourished at Ohio State, while Young shined at Alabama. Both players will likely be among the most popular NFL picks to win Rookie of the Year. Stroud and Young have sound-throwing mechanics with high-level accuracy paired with excellent traits. They should make immediate impacts and could be stars from day one. However, this debate is far from over.
Florida’s Richardson and Kentucky’s Levis fit the raw gem molds. Both have all of the intangibles. Richardson stands at 6-foot-4, 244 pounds and put up eye-popping numbers in the NFL Combine. His 40½ inch vertical jump was the highest ever by a QB, and Richardson’s 4.43 40-yard dash time was the best among signal-callers. Levis has solid mobility with a solid 6-foot-4, 229-pound frame. Most importantly, both prospects have rocket arms with excellent arm elasticity – the ability to throw from several angles.
Richardson is reportedly gaining interest from the Panthers, who hold the No. 1 pick. NFL lines have Richardson as the third choice for the top selection (+2000).
Anthony Richardson is reportedly Frank Reich’s “QB of choice” if the first overall pick was solely up to him.
Reich is reportedly in love with the upside that Richardson brings to the table and what he can be in 2-3 years.
However, the majority of the rest of the Panthers… pic.twitter.com/W6biPifcYd
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) April 6, 2023
Why would a rebuilding team select a project QB that could take several seasons to develop? It’s no secret that Richardson’s accuracy and mechanics lack consistency. However, he could have the best potential, even over Stroud and Young. The Florida product has tools you simply cannot teach. He has the ability to pull off anything you can think of. This is why teams like Carolina will seriously consider Richardson at the top.
Is it worth the risk? Do raw quarterback prospects typically turn out?
How Raw Quarterbacks Have Fared
Most NFL Drafts have a raw quarterback within the top 10 picks. Some recent examples: Zach Wilson at No. 2 in 2021, Trey Lance at No. 3 in 2021, Justin Herbert at No. 6 in 2020, Daniel Jones at No. 6 in 2019 and Josh Allen at No. 7 in 2018.
Wilson and Lance have yet to find their footing, but Herbert, Jones and Allen have panned out. Herbert and Allen are among the top signal-callers in the NFL. In fact, both are within the sportsbook’s top five favorites to win the MVP Award in the 2023 season.
It’s easy to see why the Chargers and Bills took the risk on Herbert and Allen. Both have skills that few quarterbacks can replicate. The same reasoning lies behind why Richardson and Levis could be selected early in the first round.
Unpopular opinion:
Will Levis hitting would be fun.
I know everyone wants to see him fail, but I’ll cheer for him.
— Jeff Bell (@4WhomJBellTolls) April 5, 2023
In addition, not all quarterbacks that are considered “NFL-ready” turn out. While Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence are recent examples to flourish, what about Baker Mayfield? After winning the Heisman Trophy, he was selected No. 1 overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. He is now with his fourth different team since being drafted.
There is risk in every pick. Not even the “sure-fire” guys always live up to expectations. For example, Jameis Winston drew rave reviews as the top pick in the 2015 NFL Draft and never quite turned out. Sound arguments can be made for either side of polished and raw quarterback prospects. Maybe it depends on the franchise’s situation, but oftentimes these teams can wait a few years for prospects to develop since their best players are typically young. This applies to 2023’s top two picks, the Panthers and Texans.
Ultimately, every NFL franchise has philosophies they will always follow. Some like to make the “safe” pick, while others are fine with taking the risk on the unpolished prospect. Who will be the top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, a polished or raw quarterback? Check out BetUS Sportsbook for the latest NFL betting lines.
