NFL Free Agency: Early Winners and Losers
Patriots Were Successful while Colts Struggled
The New England Patriots were the team that made the biggest splash in the free-agent pool. Most of the top players on the market have been signed other than the perceived top receiver Kenny Golladay, but that does not mean the offseason drama has come to an end. There are still many teams with holes to fill on their roster and plenty of time to sign more players before the draft.
I would like to give some basis to why I categorized teams as I did. This is definitely a buyer’s market. The salary cap, which had been going up reliably by about $10 million per year, is actually down nearly $16 million from last year as a result of pandemic-related revenue losses. This means the salary cap is down $26 million from what would have been expected just over a year ago.
There was plenty of talent at every position so any team looking to add a top-level or tier-two type of guy to their roster could most definitely find their guy, and for a reasonable price. The NFL cannot expect the salary cap to fall again and in a few years when the gambling money kicks in the cap should spike making many deals this year obsolete — making this market a true ‘bargain’ for buyers.
The NFL has signed new broadcast rights agreements with several media partners valued at more than $110 billion over 11 years.
The new agreements will start with the 2023 season.https://t.co/qnYnbT4cMF
— NPR (@NPR) March 20, 2021
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Free-Agency Winners
Patriots steal the show and spend big
The Patriots are being super aggressive. More aggressive than most people are used to seeing out of Bill Belichick. Their aggressiveness strikes me as a team that sees an opportunity to take advantage of a market imbalance. Like a real estate agent who buys up as much of the prime-valued properties right after a recession knowing that the market will adjust in their favor.
The Patriots went out and got the two best tight ends on the market in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry. The combined $36 million in first-year money seemed to raise some questions. Signing two players in the prime of their careers who will make it hard for defenses to defend the run and pass simultaneously was a great move. Once Belichick has optimized using both Smith and Henry and they are set to hit the market again, their next team will most likely be paying much more than the Patriots paid.
Belichick Co. did not stop there. They added more pieces to the offense built around their cheap signing of Cam Newton. The Patriots added wide receivers Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne to help stretch defenses. And on defense, Matthew Judon has the traits to be a productive pass-rusher in Belichick’s multiple fronts scheme, while defensive back Jalen Mills can play multiple spots in the secondary.
It is not about who the Patriots added for me. I agree with teams being aggressive this offseason because essentially everything is on sale.
“I love what Bill Belichick has done. This is genius here by the New England Patriots.”
–@AdamSchein on the Patriots moves so far in free agency pic.twitter.com/ldNGiCjaCZ
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) March 17, 2021
Offensive linemen
Everything is on sale except offensive linemen. The one position that seemed to continue its upward value is the OL. Led by OT Trent Williams who agreed to a six-year, $138.01 million contract to remain in San Francisco. In the process, he becomes the highest-paid offensive lineman in NFL history.
Joe Thuney reset the market at the guard position at $16 million on average per year. Corey Linsley also remade the center market with a five-year deal worth $62.5 million. General managers and analytics are grasping how important the five big guys up front are to a team sustaining success. Go back and watch Super LV if you need a reminder of the value of an offensive line.
The teams that signed any of the top-OL this year are all winners, because like I said earlier, these contracts will look like pennies for players of their caliber in three years time or less.
Washington Football Team
The Washington Football Team made three big signings and I am a big fan of all of them. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was my favorite QB on the market and Washington went out and got the journeyman to sign to his record-setting ninth team. It is not guaranteed he will start, but we will definitely see some more magic in 2021.
Terry Mclaurin and Curtis Samuel back together like they never left. pic.twitter.com/EYgB943Xqh
— Jake Knight ➐ (@FFundefeated) March 18, 2021
They also went out and got Fitzpatrick a much-needed weapon to line up alongside their young star WR Terry McLaurin. WFT got one of the most versatile players in the NFL when it signed WR Curtis Samuel. Samuel played for coach Ron Rivera in Carolina and was a teammate with McLaurin at Ohio State. Samuel can be used as a possession receiver, a deep threat, or even a running back, which will provide Washington’s OC Scott Turner a nice weapon to game-plan around.
Lastly, Washington addressed another need by adding the top free-agent cornerback William Jackson III. Jackson III’s play indicates he is capable of being a true No. 1 CB who can have success in man coverage against talented wide receivers. Washington’s defense was its strength a year ago, but the unit’s weakness was at the CB position. Now the young defense should be even better which should scare the rest of the NFC East.
With the addition of the Curtis Samuel signing, Washington leads the PFF Improvement Index 🥇https://t.co/448UV2MwN0 pic.twitter.com/Fd5ltBmFfG
— PFF Washington (@PFF_Washington) March 18, 2021
Honorable Mention
The 49ers need some credit for shoring up their O-line and for some of their other signings.
The Arizona Cardinals getting A.J. Green and C Rodney Hudson should help their star QB Kyler Murray develop.
The Cleveland Browns’ signing of S John Johnson is exactly what they needed.
Free-Agency Losers
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have not done anything wrong, but they have not done anything right. Actually, the problem is they have not done much of anything. The same reason the Patriots are winners is the exact reason the Colts are losers — it is a buyer’s market. The Colts have a nice team and have built it through drafting and developing players, and not giving big money to free agents. This tactic until 2020 has proven to be the way to be successful in the NFL, but 2020 changed absolutely everything.
The Colts are my pick to win the AFC South and should be able to make it to the AFC Championship Game. But this team is a few pieces from being a true Super Bowl team and had the second-most cap space available. Believe in the system that has made you successful, right? Wrong, go make a few moves while players are on discount and try and win now!
Chicago Bears
Oh boy, it feels like the franchise is melting in Chicago. Supposedly the Bears offered the “house” to the Seahawks for Russell Wilson and was shut down. So what did they do? They signed Andy Dalton and let Mitch Trubisky go to the Bills (which is a great signing by the Bills). The Bears promised Dalton the starting job, which is a “big” reason he signed with them. GM-Ryan Pace seems desperate and confused, which is only going to lead to more disappointing losses.
Dalton is not a horrible choice for a QB if the team around him is solid. The Bears are not and they need a playmaker at the quarterback position to help get them some wins. Dalton’s name will be added to the 70-year-old list of below-average QBs that have disappointed Bears fans.
In 2021, the Chicago #Bears will be spending more ($16.7M) on Nick Foles & Andy Dalton to be their quarterbacks than the Buffalo #Bills ($9.4M) will be for Josh Allen & Mitchell Trubisky to be theirs. #NFL pic.twitter.com/NvMjpT0nRH
— Grizz. (@GrizzlyGridiron) March 18, 2021
Derek Carr and the Raiders
The Raiders under coach Jon Gruden have made some questionable moves in free agency and this year seems to be continuing that story. They traded away three of their starting linemen and have not signed any new ones. Like I said above, linemen are important to a QB and team’s overall success and the Raiders do not seem to care. Poor Derek Carr is going to be running for his life when he is lining up behind four possible new starters.
Honorable Mention
The Texans are spending a lot of money but it seems like a bunch of players at the end of their careers that no one else wants. The Deshaun Watson story that is unfolding is one to watch. Not sure what QB Tyrod Taylor was thinking when he chose to sign with such a dysfunctional franchise.
Edge-rushers have taken a pay cut this offseason. Some teams are still paying for sacks, which seems like a grossly overvalued stat. In general, most edge-rushers who signed this year did not get paid top money.
Joe Burrow is set to have another tough year if the Bengals do not go and get some offensive linemen to protect him.
Four more lawsuits have been filed against Deshaun Watson, alleging similar inappropriate conduct and sexual assault to the previous three that had been filed.
This brings the total to seven lawsuits filed against Watson by Houston attorney Tony Buzbee. https://t.co/qdLCzqwVfa
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) March 19, 2021
